Who is that Fantasy Player? It's Jay Ajayi!

Note from Zach: I think seeing me doing some writing got Bobby itching to do some of his own! I'm thrilled to have him submit a piece of his own for this blog and hopefully there will be more to come in the future.

It’s Pika...damnit. It’s Jay Ajayi. You’ll need to excuse my dated pop culture references, but as many of you know I’ve been out of the writing game for a bit. It’s time to shake off the rust with a look at the pros and cons of Jay Ajayi as a dynasty player.

I personally own Jay Ajayi in at least one league. I acquired him on the cheap when Arian Foster was going to be “the guy” for the Dolphins. However, at the time I had no idea just how good of a move it would turn out to be.

What really has me considering Ajayi’s value is the fact that I was recently offered a trade of Devante Parker, Tevin Coleman, and Terrance West for Ajayi alone. I know what most of you are you thinking. Are you as crazy as people who think the earth is flat? You must be to not take that deal!

Honestly, I wish I was a flat earth truther. It might be easier than being an Ajayi truther.  Just yesterday Mike Randle of Last Word on Pro Football came out with this article detailing while you should avoid drafting Ajayi in all formats. 

Mike makes a lot of great points about the pros and cons of Ajayi and I’m going to list them below for those you who are more of the TLDR type of reader. 

Pros:

• Started only 12 games but finished with 1,272 yards
• Ranked ninth among all rbs with  260 carries
• His 484 yards after contact were third among NFL RBS
• Multiple 200 yard games
• Great game against the Jets tough run defense

Cons:

• In first five games of the season Ajayi only averaged 3.8 yards per carry
•  Miami’s O-line was almost never fully healthy last season (and Mike didn’t point this out but they were ranked 30th by PFF)
• Two of his 200 yard games came against the Bills who were not nearly as good a defense last year as they have been in years past
• Tore ACL in 2011,  hamstring injury in 2015 preseason, and rib injury in 2015 that caused him to miss a good portion of the season

The article compares Ajayi’s season last year to what Peyton Hillis did in 2010 before falling off. I’ve had some “one year wonder” concerns of my own especially since the Dolphins did take Kenyan Drake in the third round of the 2016 draft. I can understand why someone may want to cash out on him like they should have done with Jeremy Langford prior to last season.

However, if you are in a dynasty league I don’t think it’s quite time to cash out yet. Let's try to remember that this is a guy who saw his draft stock fall only due to injury concerns. He was the RB 11 in half ppr leagues last season and is only 24.

 It's also important to keep in mind that Ajayi put up those points while running behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. The o-line should only improve as long as it can stay healthy.They can't possibly get worse right? Even if they don't improve, he's shown an elite ability to create running room for himself.

I also don’t buy the argument that his 200+ yard games came against bad defenses or defenses who were checked out. These are guys who are professionals for a reason. Are we seriously supposed to think because they were eliminated from playoff contention that they suddenly thought “Know what? Let’s let him run all over us because we are now treadmills and no longer highly paid professional football players whose job it is to tackle him”.

Finally, Adam Gase who is heralded as “that guy who once made Jay Cutler look good” says he wants to give Ajayi even more carries! This is the same Adam Gase who made Jeremy Langford look like he could play football!  But wait! Won’t Ajayi’s knee spontaneously explode or at least have a baby alien rip it from the inside out from all the extra carries!? That didn’t happen last year and there’s no reason to believe it’s more likely to happen this year.

Normally, I’m someone who is as risk averse as Chucky from Rugrats. However, Ajayi has the potential to be a league winner for a few years on a team willing to risk it. As a league mate of mine often says, “You have to risk it for the biscuit”.

*Pictured above-me when presented with anything that is risky*

Until next time,


Rek - @RekedFantasy on Twitter

Week 17 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Eddie Lacy
3. DeMarco Murray
4. Matt Forte
5. Reggie Bush
6. Alfred Morris
7. Le'Veon Bell
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Knowshon Moreno
10. Zac Stacy
11. Andre Brown*
12. Chris Johnson
13. Adrian Peterson*
14. Ryan Mathews
15. DeAngelo Williams
16. Chris Ivory
17. Frank Gore
18. Shane Vereen
19. Fred Jackson
20. Giovani Bernard
21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
22. C.J. Spiller
23. Maurice Jones-Drew*
24. Jamaal Charles
25. Bobby Rainey
26. Danny Woodhead
27. Rashad Jennings
28. Steven Jackson
29. Donald Brown
30. Joique Bell
31. Andre Ellington
32. Pierre Thomas
33. Darren Sproles
34. Edwin Baker
35. Knile Davis
36. Montee Ball
37. Stevan Ridley
38. LeGarrette Blount
39. Ray Rice
40. Rashard Mendenhall
41. Shonn Greene
42. Jacquizz Rodgers
43. Jonathan Grimes
44. Matt Asiata
45. Lamar Miller
46. Peyton Hillis
47. James Starks
48. Daniel Thomas
49. Jordan Todman
50. Mike Tolbert
51. Kendall Hunter
52. Darren McFadden
53. Bilal Powell
54. Chris Ogbonnaya
55. Trent Richardson

#5 Reggie Bush - (#13 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

There are multiple red flags around Bush. He fumbled again last week and got benched. Joique Bell looked better. And he just flat out didn't look great. But on the season Bush has been very good more often than not. It might have a risk element involved but if Bush is playing I want him in my lineup.

#6 Alfred Morris - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)

After not getting more than 14 carries in RGIII's final three games of the season, he now has 18 and 24 in the two games with Cousins. That is no coincidence. I expect 20+ against the Giants. Even if their run defense isn't awful Morris will do fine.

#8 Marshawn Lynch - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

Lynch is a must start of course, but he has slowed down considerably as the season wears on. He hasn't averaged more than 3.9 YPC in a game since week 11. He's always a great chance for a TD, but the yards haven't been there and don't expect them to be.

#11 Andre Brown - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)

I know Andre has let you down lately. He had two very tough matchups. You know what the Redskins are? Not tough. Trust me, He'll do well here.

#14 Ryan Mathews - (#9 on Fantasy Pros)

I'm always low on Mathews so maybe you should be taking that into consideration. But Woodhead was a bigger part of this offense early in the season and I don't believe he has disappeared. Mathews can be kept in check by that and I think it would be a major mistake by the Chargers to continue rolling Mathews out at 25 carries a game.

Quick Thoughts....I still really like Shane Vereen but teams have shown they can take him out of the equation. And I still believe in Stevan Ridley. I might be crazy though. If AP sits out, Matt Asiata moves to 26 or so. He scored 3 TDs but his YPC was about 2.0. He'll be lucky to get one TD here. Jamaal Charles may only play a few series, but if he can get to 10 carries he is a pretty good flex play still.

Week 16 55 & 5 RB Rankings - The Playoffs!

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. DeMarco Murray
5. Adrian Peterson*
6. Reggie Bush
7. Zac Stacy
8. Alfred Morris
9. Le'Veon Bell
10. Eddie Lacy
11. Frank Gore
12. Knowshon Moreno
13. Chris Johnson
14. Rashad Jennings
15. Marshawn Lynch
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Andre Brown
18. Fred Jackson
19. Bobby Rainey
20. Shane Vereen
21. Ryan Mathews
22. Maurice Jones-Drew*
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Steven Jackson
25. C.J. Spiller
26. Chris Ivory
27. Danny Woodhead
28. Darren Sproles
29. Rashard Mendenhall
30. Ray Rice*
31. Stevan Ridley
32. Dennis Johnson
33. Montee Ball
34. DeAngelo Williams
35. Lamar Miller
36. Andre Ellington
37. Joique Bell
38. Trent Richardson
39. Edwin Baker
40. Donald Brown
41. Daniel Thomas
42. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
43. Jordan Todman (top 20 if/when MJD is ruled out)
44. Mike Tolbert
45. Jacquizz Rodgers
46. Bilal Powell
47. Chris Ogbonnaya
48. Michael Bush
49. Bernard Pierce
50. Shonn Greene
51. James Starks
52. Robert Turbin
53. Benny Cunningham
54. Willis McGahee*

#5 Adrian Peterson - (#11 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Look, if Adrian Peterson is in, you have to start him. I think his consensus rank is low beacuse some people are assuming he doesn't play. I am assuming he plays and if he does he will be fine.

#6 Reggie Bush - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)

Reggie Bush continues to play much better at home. Even last week against the Ravens, it was quiet, but another 100 total yards and a TD. Bush averages 16.7 points per home game. He faces the Giants. Enough said.

#9 Le'Veon Bell - ( #6 on Fantasy Pros)

I really like Bell. It appears everyone else likes him even more. I think his ceiling is somewhat limited by the fact that in the current offense he won't average 5.0 YPC. Even against the Packers a 4.0 YPC would be a good game. His real value comes in TD potential and volume of touches. Because of that I will never rank him super high, but I do like him a lot.

#10 Eddie Lacy - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

In the battle of the two best rookie RBs, I like Lacy a little less while the consensus likes him a little more. He is a good play no doubt, but I was impressed with how well the Steelers held the Bengals RBs in check last week. I like him, just don't expect a huge game.

#12 Knowshon Moreno - (#7 on Fantasy Pros)

This isn't an overreaction to how poorly Moreno played last week but more of a belief that as the season winds down, Montee Ball will get more touches as they want to keep Moreno as healthy as possible for the playoffs. He is still their best RB without a doubt.

#15 Marshawn Lynch - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)

The Cardinals continue to be the best fantasy defense against RBs. They are a little vulnerable to pass-catching RBs, which Lynch is not. (This year is Lynch's most rec yards ever at 307) He might get a TD, but he also might only have 50 yards. Not a huge fan.

Quick Thoughts...Possibly overreacting to Shane Vereen but when you don't really run the ball much, you can be factored out. Sproles and Woodhead have proven that as well...Really disappointed in CJ Spiller last week. This ranking reflects that, you would need to be out of good options elsewhere to trust him in your lineup. Dennis Johnson is starting for the Texans this week but I'm not too interested. The Texans are a mess, its a big risk.

Week 15 55 & 5: The RB Rankings

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Shane Vereen
7. Eddie Lacy*
8. Reggie Bush*
9. DeMarco Murray
10. Alfred Morris
11. Steven Jackson
12. C.J. Spiller
13. Zac Stacy
14. Danny Woodhead
15. Andre Brown
16. Le'Veon Bell
17. Fred Jackson
18. Toby Gerhart*
19. Rashad Jennings
20. Maurice Jones-Drew*
21. Andre Ellington
22. Chris Johnson
23. Frank Gore
24. Giovani Bernard
25. Pierre Thomas
26. Bobby Rainey
27. Ryan Mathews
28. Darren Sproles
29. Ray Rice
30. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
31. Ben Tate
32. Montee Ball
33. Joique Bell
34. Chris Ivory
35. Stevan Ridley
36. Chris Ogbonnaya
37. Rashard Mendenhall
38. Donald Brown
39. Jordan Todman
40. Marcel Reece
41. Lamar Miller
42. Jacquizz Rodgers
43. DeAngelo Williams
44. Mike Tolbert
45. Shonn Greene
46. Trent Richardson
47. James Starks
48. Daniel Thomas
49. Benny Cunningham
50. Peyton Hillis
51. Jonathan Stewart
52. Knile Davis
53. Michael Bush
54. Joseph Randle
55. Bernard Pierce

#6 Shane Vereen - (#10 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Without Gronk last week, Vereen was the target with the game on the line. He is a must start this week and should put up big numbers again.

#8 Reggie Bush - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)
If Reggie Bush is in, you are starting him and not thinking twice about it. He loves the home matchups. Baltimore is vulnerable to pass-catching RBs. I expect a typical 100 total yard and a TD day for Bush if he plays.

#9 DeMarco Murray - (#4 on Fantasy Pros)
If you have Murray you are almost certainly starting him. But I don't see this as a fantastic matchup like many do. Its a worse matchup than last week, and while Murray did very well, I wouldn't expect much more than 100 yards here. Anything on top of that is icing on the cake.

#11 Steven Jackson - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Am I crazy here? Maybe. But Steven Jackson has looked solid lately. Over the past three weeks he has had at least 80 total yards in each game as well as three touchdowns. This matchup is the best yet. For an aging Steven Jackson this may end up being his last great game. We'll have to see how it plays out.


#12 C.J. Spiller - (#23 on Fantasy Pros)
I am back on my C.J. Spiller love train! The Jags have been a shutdown defense lately, but I have a really good feeling about C.J. Spiller this week. If the Bills are going to win, they need to get their run game going this week, that was proven last week. Fred Jackson does the dirty work, the short yard gains and all that. But Spiller lights it up and I strongly believe the Jags are a great defense to get a 50 yard+ carry. Thats all it takes for the man.

#13 Zac Stacy - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Another somewhat tough matchup for Stacy. He got a touchdown last week but not much else. In addition, his role in the passing game has been shut down. He has 4 catches for -4 yards over the past 2 weeks. He is a decent shot for a touchdown, but anything over 60-70 yards here would be a success.

#14 Danny Woodhead - (#30 on Fantasy Pros)
Woodhead is coming off a 90 yard game with a TD. I cannot imagine why people would rank him so far down. The Broncos have given up 5 rec. TDs to running backs on the season. Woodhead is more likely than any other RB out there to add to that list. I expect a big passing game, and Woodhead will be integral to that.

Quick thoughts...I'd really like to avoid playing Andre Brown if it can be helped. I expect the Giants to fall behind quickly, eliminating much of the running game. Assuming Toby Gerhart plays, he is a decent flex. He performed admirably after Peterson went down last week. As much as I like Spiller, I also feel like Andre Ellington has a great chance for a big run as well. I love the upside and I would play him over Chris Johnson who faces the Cards - the #1 fantasy D vs RBs. Its not a bad matchup for Bobby Rainey but I'm not high on him. After his 80 yard run, Rainey struggled heavily last week. If you're desperate, take a flier on Stevan Ridley if he got dropped. I think he comes back as the main rusher for NE, not that it means too much right now. Jordan Todman is another one worth adding. He would be good if MJD is ruled out.

Week 14 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Knowshon Moreno
5. Eddie Lacy
6. DeMarco Murray
7. Reggie Bush
8. LeSean McCoy
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Le'Veon Bell*
11. Alfred Morris
12. Andre Brown
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Fred Jackson
15. Ben Tate
16. Frank Gore
17. Bobby Rainey
18. Shane Vereen
19. C.J. Spiller
20. Chris Johnson
21. Zac Stacy
22. Giovani Bernard
23. Steven Jackson
24. Ryan Mathews
25. Chris Ivory*
26. Rashad Jennings*
27. Danny Woodhead
28. Ray Rice
29. Donald Brown
30. Pierre Thomas
31. Stevan Ridley*
32. Andre Ellington
33. Joique Bell
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Lamar Miller
36. Rashard Mendenhall
37. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
38. Darren Sproles
39. Chris Ogbonnaya
40. Montee Ball
41. Willis McGahee
42. Dennis Johnson
43. Jonathan Stewart*
44. Bilal Powell
45. Darren McFadden
46. Roy Helu
47. Jacquizz Rodgers
48. James Starks
49. Robert Turbin
50. Michael Bush
51. Bernard Pierce
52. Trent Richardson
53. Antone Smith
54. LeGarrette Blount
55. Jordan Todman

#7 Reggie Bush - (#10 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
I've been one of the people promoting Reggie's Home/Away splits all year and specifically how he doesn't get enough work on the road. So I'm still a bit concerned about that here against an Eagles defense that has been kind of decent lately. But I still really like this matchup for the Lions and I think he will do well enough that he is pretty much a must start.

#11 Alfred Morris - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Morris has definitely been somewhat disappointing over the past few games. He has had a few tough matchups. The Chiefs are actually vulnerable against the Run, and I do believe Morris will take advantage of that.

#12 Andre Brown - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
I was low on him last week and he ended up with a solid game solely because of two TDs. He has a somewhat tough matchup this week and he'll need touchdowns again to do well and with this offense I have a hard time seeing him continuing to get as many goal line opportunities as he does.

#14 Fred Jackson - (#24 on Fantasy Pros)
Fred Jackson didn't have a great YPC last week, but I was still impressed with his play. Now he gets a much tougher matchup so its hard to predict how he will do, but he is still their goal line guy and there is no doubt about that. If he gets the opportunities, it will be a good day.

#15 Ben Tate - (#12 on Fantasy Pros)
Tate's situation is one where you probably have to start him, but I wouldn't feel good about it. He just came off a 3 TD performance, but right before that he faced the Jags and got completely owned by them. Now on a Thursday in Jacksonville? Its hard for me to feel super optimistic, but its hard for me to be super cautious after last week as well. So this is where I put him. He is clearly the #1 and the guy they want to be #1, otherwise Dennis Johnson would have been after getting more carries and looking better against JAX the first time.

Deeper thoughts...Bobby Rainey has obviously quieted down quite a lot, but after seeing Steven Jackson rumble against this Bills defense a lot, I like Rainey quite a bit this week. C.J. Spiller broke out last week, but this week is not a great matchup. But for Spiller its always just a matter of whether he gets a big run or not. Thats also how it works for Chris Johnson, to a lesser extent. I see this as a game that the Titans will throw a lot in. CJ2K gets involved in the passing game but it will still lower his opportunities quite a bit. Its a shame Rashad Jennings got hurt because he was running away with the RB1 job in Oakland. Now its probable that McFadden will get a decent amount of touches in a 60/40 share or something similar. I really like this matchup for Andre Ellington. I think it could easily be a game where he has one or two big runs and never stops, but you don't want to bank on it with the way he is used.

Week 13 Waiver Grabs

We are down to the wire here and its becoming must-win time for a lot of people, so waiver moves are especially important. I've ranked the 3-5 best guys to pick up at each position. QBs are for this week only and the rest are a mix of overall and for this week only. Most of these rankings are for players 50% owned or less, but there is an exception or two. For example, I doubt Alex Smith is owned in every competitive league despite his higher %.

QBs: (Yahoo Ownership %)

1. Josh McCown (19%) @ Minnesota

2. Matt Flynn (2%) @ Lions

3. Alex Smith (61%) vs. Broncos

4. E.J. Manuel (8%) vs. Falcons

Josh McCown has been really impressive. After two tough matchups where he got a passable grade, he now faces a much easier defense and should play really well. Flynn is much riskier because we've only seen him play half a game, but its a great matchup and he knows the system well. I have high expectations. Next you have Alex Smith who has been pretty good lately, and has another great matchup. At the same time, I don't think its fair to continually expecting 20 points, so thats why he is lower. Lastly we have the forgotten Manuel in a great matchup as well. He can run a little, and he will potentially have all of his WRs. Its promising

WRs:

1. Michael Crabtree (31%)

2. Nate Burleson (25%)

3. Rod Streater (14%)

4. Robert Woods (7%)

5. Marvin Jones (40%)

Percy Harvin got a ton of hype in his return. Crabtree on the other hand has gotten some, but its way less than Harvin. I really think Crabtree can outperform Harvin going forward. His team needs him more. He is a must add now. Burleson will probably be the top add after last week, and he should definitely be a high priority, specifically in PPR leagues. With Calvin across from him, he should do very well. Streater is a guy that I think has taken over the #1 WR role for Oakland with McGloin in. Two straight good weeks and I like him. *If* Woods is back, he is one you want for this week only. Atlanta is a joke.

RBs:

1. Chris Ogbonnaya (29%)

2. Benny Cunningham (5% - a must for Stacy owners)

3. Donald Brown (41%)

4. Dennis Johnson (41%)

5. Jacquizz Rodgers (41%)

6. Bilal Powell (39%)

I really like the Silent G Ogbonnaya. Over his last two games he has 12 carries for 95 yards. That is a fantastic 7.91 YPC. Unfortunately he has also fumbled in both of those games. He is also their best receiving back. That kind of talent (vs. basically no talent at all in Whittaker/McGahee) wins out. He might not be great this upcoming week, but he is absolutely worth a speculative add for the owner in need of an RB. Next is Cunningham. He had a great game against a terrible defense, so take from that what you will. He is definitely talented. His upside is limited by whether he gets any time. If Stacy is fine, Cunningham will be used sparingly. But he is worth the add on the chance that Stacy is out. A lot of people will sour on Brown after he inexplicably got three carries, but in most games they won't be down by double digits, and Brown will see his time.

TEs:

1. Delanie Walker (49%)

2. Tim Wright (19%)

3. Owen Daniels (16%)

3. John Carlson (12%)

5. Rob Housler (15%)

Slim pickings at Tight End compared to the rest of the positions. The one guy that definitely isn't a streaming option is Walker. Fitzpatrick really likes him. His most recent game wasn't stellar, but it was better than a lot of other middling options. And with Fitz, I think that could be as bad as it gets. I'd take a floor of 4-5 points every week if you don't have a top 5 TE. Tim Wright is next. He won't always be a top option but he has 60-70 yard upside every week. Owen Daniels is an intriguing. His return has quietly crept closer. If you don't need a tight end right away, he is a great add.

Week 12 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. Matt Forte
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Frank Gore
5. Zac Stacy
6. Knowshon Moreno
7. Alfred Morris
8. Reggie Bush
9. Eddie Lacy
10. Andre Brown
11. Stevan Ridley
12. Pierre Thomas
13. DeMarco Murray
14. Chris Johnson
15. Chris Ivory
16. Rashad Jennings
17. Le'veon Bell
18. Ben Tate
19. Bobby Rainey
20. Danny Woodhead
21. Darren Sproles
22. Shane Vereen
23. Ryan Mathews
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. Chris Ogbonnaya
26. Ray Rice
27. Andre Ellington
28. Jacquizz Rodgers
29. Steven Jackson
30. Lamar Miller
31. Joique Bell*
32. Donald Brown
33. DeAngelo Williams
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Montee Ball
36. Rashard Mendenhall
37. Brian Leonard
38. Trent Richardson
39. Jonathan Stewart
40. Shonn Greene
41. Willis McGahee
42. Kendall Hunter
43. Antone Smith
44. LeGarrette Blount
45. Daniel Thomas
46. Toby Gerhart
47. James Starks
48. Brandon Jacobs
49. Marcel Reece
50. Benny Cunningham
51. Dennis Johnson
52. Bernard Pierce
53. Roy Helu
54. Bilal Powell
55. Michael Bush

#6 Knowshon Moreno - (#9 on Fantasy Pros Conensus Rankings)
I know people would be down on him after seeing Montee Ball get both goal line rush TDs last week. I am not worried. It seemingly went unnoticed, but Moreno got a season-high 27 carries last week! He didn't do much, but that is very promising. He is very clearly still the preferred option and I am not concerned.

#10 Andre Brown - (#6 on Fantasy Pros)
I am surprised many see Andre as the 6th best option this week. He is a good running back on a team that likes to run, but he is not a great running back. Even against a bad Dallas run defense minus Sean Lee, I don't see him exploding. He will still be a very good option and at #10 is still a must start.

#11 Stevan Ridley - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)
Here is another situation where I think people are overreacting. First we must remember that Carolina is very good against the run. Shane Vereen was much better suited against that team as a receiving RB. Secondly, Vereen is strictly a pass-catching back based on what we saw last week. He played in 34 snaps and 33 of them were passing plays. What that means is that Ridley and Vereen are not competing for touches. The only potential scare here is that Ridley might see reduced time because of his fumble. If I hear anything on that front, I'll adjust my ranking.

#12 Pierre Thomas - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)
I love this matchup for Pierre. Did you know he has had six straight games with at least 80 total yards? He also has 4 TDs in that span. In a great matchup, I think he gets a lot of action and a lot of points.

#15 Chris Ivory - (#23 on Fantasy Pros)
Another ranking I don't completely understand. I had Ivory 15th last week as well and he lived up to the ranking. He is very clearly the #1 RB on this team and they will run a lot with their rookie QB. Speaking of Geno, there is simply no way he can be as bad as he was last week, and that will open up more opportunities for Ivory as well.

#18 Ben Tate - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Another ranking I am apparently not in sync with the consensus. Tate is a good RB, but people are underrating the Jags defense. They have done a nice job shutting RBs down lately. Considering how poor they have played against the pass, it doesn't make sense to try to run a ton either. If Kubiak is smart, this is a great opportunity to let Case Keenum throw all day and build his confidence, reducing Tate to a good but not great option.

Deeper Thoughts...Temper expectations for Bobby Rainey. He played amazingly well last week, but the Lions are a tougher run defense and there is a reason Rainey was cut from the lacking Browns. He's not fool's gold, but he isn't going to be a superstar either. I know Ryan Mathews has been playing at a high level as well, but its a tough matchup and one that better fits Danny Woodhead. Maurice Jones-Drew has scored some touchdowns lately, but otherwised looked terrible. I'm not interested in starting him as more than an average flex option. As I explained on twitter, I still want no part of Ray Rice. Sell high if you can. I ranked Jacquizz Rodgers higher than Steven Jackson. I still think he fits the Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead mold and if they give him the ball more, they will get better results. As indicated earlier, I'm a big believer in Knowshon still, I wouldn't expect much from Montee Ball but just because of the offense he's always a possibility for a TD if you need a flier.

Week 11 55 & 5: The RB Rankings

1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Jamaal Charles
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Alfred Morris
6. Frank Gore
7. Matt Forte
8. Knowshon Moreno
9. Reggie Bush
10. Giovani Bernard
11. Eddie Lacy
12. Andre Brown
13. Le'Veon Bell
14. Fred Jackson
15. Chris Ivory
16. Ben Tate
17. Ryan Mathews
18. Danny Woodhead
19. Stevan Ridley
20. Pierre Thomas
21. Andre Ellington
22. CJ Spiller
23. Darren Sproles
24. Ray Rice
25. Rashad Jennings
26. Maurice Jones-Drew
27. Shane Vereen*
28. Lamar Miller
29. Steven Jackson
30. Bobby Rainey
31. Rashard Mendenhall
32. Brian Leonard
33. Jacquizz Rodgers
34. DeAngelo Williams
35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
36. Mike Tolbert
37. Chris Ogbonnaya
38. Roy Helu
39. Jonathan Stewart
40. Bernard Pierce
41. Willis McGahee
42. Shonn Greene
43. Kendall Hunter
44. Joique Bell
45. James Starks
46. Montee Ball
47. Bilal Powell
48. Dennis Johnson
49. Peyton Hillis
50. Daniel Thomas
51. Christine Michael
52. Bryce Brown
53. Brandon Jacobs

#5 Alfred Morris - (#9 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Alfred Morris has at least 13 points in four of his last five games. On the other hand, the Eagles have been surprisingly tough against running backs after a bad start to the season, allowing just 13.8 fantasy points to running backs per game. Thats as a whole, so it includes the 2-3 points a backup would get as well. Its pretty good. I'm just not really buying into them as a good defense. They stopped Eddie Lacy last week as the QB was a third stringer. Not impressed. Morris will perform very well.

#9 Giovani Bernard - (#15 on Fantasy Pros)

I suppose this ranking is pretty aggressive for a guy that doesn't average 18+ touches a game, but Gio is that good. It appears the Bernard is trending upwards in touches, overtaking BJGE as the main ball carrier. Further, the Browns defense just isn't what it was early on in the season. Bernard is an explosive talent, and I guess while I'm down on CJ Spiller, I need someone else to take that explosive talent role!

#10 Reggie Bush - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

This is definitely a risky call by me, but I don't see Bush playing very well this week. Pittsburgh is a bad matchup for pass catching RBs. The Steelers allow the fewest receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs with just one touchdown reception. Bush can run on them which is why he is still in the top 10, but its hard to see this as a great game.

#13 Fred Jackson - (#22 on Fantasy Pros)

I was surprised I was so far away from the consensus on Fred Jackson. Then again, the Jets have a fantastic defense. They haven't allowed 100 total rushing yards to running backs yet this season, the only team to do so. (The Lions are next best, having allowed exactly 100 rushing yards once) Why so high on Fred Jackson? To be honest I'm probably a bit too high here, and this may come down later on in the week. However, the Jets have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns, which is the tied for the most of any team of those allowing 15 points or less a week to RBs. I do feel like Fjax finds the endzone here.

#16 Chris Ivory - (#24 on Fantasy Pros)

I might be very high on Ivory, but this is one I feel good about. The only worry here is whether Bilal Powell is more involved this week. Its certainly a possible, but Ivory is clearly the better back. The Bills don't allow a ton of yardage, but much like the Steelers last week, the Jets should run the ball 30+ times in this game. If Ivory can get 20 of those, it almost definitely justifies the ranking.

Deeper League Thoughts...My ranking of Stevan Ridley has nothing to do with me expecting Shane Vereen to take a big role, its more respect for a great Panthers defense. As much as I love CJ Spiller, its hard to have any confidence in him this week. It is worth noting that his top three yardages this year have come against Carolina, KC, and Baltimore which are all in the bottom six for fantasy points allowed to running backs. I am low on Ray Rice compared to the consensus, so even in a pretty good matchup against the bears I have no confidence at all. The Browns claim they want to get Chris Ogbonnaya more involved. It makes sense with the way Willis McGahee has been playing. Worth a flier if you're desperate.

My Team is (X Wins)-(X Losses) - What should I be doing?

The season is winding down, most leagues have 3-4 matchups left before the playoffs. Its time to do whatever you can to make the playoffs, and then if you are feeling good about the playoffs, you need to secure the best possible starting lineup that you can get in order to maximize your chance to win.

Let's start from the bottom up:

If your team is a lost cause...

DO NOT be the guy that gives up and doesn't try, or even worse, trades/drops his best players for nothing. Even if its a casual league, if people are competitive, this absolutely ruins it and can have major playoff implications. You wouldn't like it if you suffered because your closest opponent got to pick up Jimmy Graham for nothing, so don't do it. If your league cares, they shouldn't invite you back. Best advice - put in your best lineup and compete every week. Maybe you can crush a friend's playoff hopes in the last week. That's pretty fun on its own!

If you are fairly unlikely to make the playoffs:

Even the best advice might not save you, but its worth a shot to try. Maybe you need to go 3-0 against some tough teams to make it. And even then you might need a couple losses from other guys. Its still possible though! What you need to do is give yourself the best possible chance to win every week, doing almost whatever it takes. Don't go too overboard. But if you are in this scenario and you have...Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, or even Steven Jackson on your bench hoping they will break out, and you are pretty depleted at wide receiver? Drop one for a flier on a guy with a great matchup and some explosive potential. You need something only just short of a miracle, don't be afraid to take it. At the same time, don't outright drop a guy like Andrew Luck because you don't like his Thursday Night matchup this week. Thats too far. But maybe on a hail mary, you start Alex Smith against Denver instead? Just be willing to cut the guys you've been waiting on for a rebound. Its time to stop waiting and start taking action.

If you are on the outside looking in, but close:

So there are 6 playoff spots, and you're in 7th overall right now. You don't want to sacrifice the long run, but you might want to make a few moves to help you out in the short-term too. First off, if you have injured guys, or guys coming off injury (always a gamble), trade them for a more sure thing. I'm referring to guys like Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen, and even Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers you can probably convince another team that he is their key to victory in the playoffs, and hey, "look at my team, I can't afford to keep him, I need someone that can help me now." If its a league where there is a decent amount of communication, some team with a good number of wins will realize its a good point. Trade Rodgers for a WR or RB that you can immediately plug in to improve your team. Outside of that, if you've built a good team over the course of the season, there is not much you can do besides do your best to win every week.

If you are in a playoff spot but far from guaranteed:

This is the trickiest situation in my opinion. You have to play a little defense and be a little aggressive at the same time. Do you make a play for Aaron Rodgers? No, probably not. But this is a team that can give up its 4th or 5th RB/WR for the upside in a guy like Roddy White or Marques Colston, or buy Harvin at current value in hopes of a big boost. You don't want to make too many changes to this team, it did after all put you in playoff spot. But I definitely recommend adding a flier or two, or making a two for one trade for an upgrade at one position. Because you still need to win in the regular season, don't throw away your depth. At the same time depth isn't the most important thing either.

If you are in prime position to make the playoffs:

Well first off, congratulations! You are in the best possible spot to be in. You have a good team, you managed to avoid most of the injuries, and maybe its not a lock to make the playoffs, but a lot of things would have to go wrong for you to miss out of the playoffs. Your motto here should be "Good for Great". You want to deal your good players for great players, bringing yourself the most action packed lineup possible. Great players that are a must start even against tough teams. You want people to look at your team and say its "Matchup proof" For example, I traded Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Kansas City defense for Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is of course one of only two truly elite, near unstoppable tight ends. You can argue that KC is elite, and that has been true so far. Denver might change that and I'm getting out while they are still hot. Thats just one example.

Middle tier players that make a great starting point in a 2 for 1 package for an elite player:
Zac Stacy
Chris Johnson
Gio Bernard
Le'Veon Bell
Keenan Allen
Alshon Jeffery
Denarius Moore
Larry Fitzgerald
Tony Romo
Russell Wilson

Thats a nice list of players to give you an idea. This player would be the main player you trade away (in the darn good, but still not great category) and then package them with a lesser but still good player and receiver a player like Forte, Charles, McCoy, Stafford, Garcon, Andre Johnson, etc. This gives you the extra oomph in your lineup that gives you a better chance to win no matter what the situation is. Then you can sit back and watch the destruction that ensues. Of course it doesn't always work, but at least you'll know you did what you could.

---------------

Well, that wraps it up, I think I covered pretty much every situation. In case you are curious, I have 1 team that is in great position for the playoffs, another that is on the cusp of being certain for the playoffs and still uncertain. Another team just outside, but its a really good team. And then a 16-teamer that basically needs a miracle. To be fair it was the worst draft I've ever had (Spiller & D. Wilson were my top RBs), so the fact that I'm not last is a personal success. Thanks for reading and as always, I hope it helps you a bit!

55 & 5: Week 10 RB Rankings

This is a really good week for RBs in my opinion. Truly 10-12 great options and as much as I hate Ray Rice and T-Rich right now, having those two guys down near 30 is a great thing. Enjoy the production at RB this week!

Not Ranked: Arian Foster, Darren McFadden

1. Matt Forte
2. Reggie Bush
3. Eddie Lacy
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Knowshon Moreno
7. Chris Johnson
8. C.J. Spiller
9. Frank Gore
10. Zac Stacy
11. Fred Jackson
12. Le'Veon Bell
13. DeMarco Murray
14. Mike James
15. Maurice Jones-Drew
16. Steven Jackson
17. Giovani Bernard
18. Ben Tate
19. Danny Woodhead
20. Andre Ellington
21. Darren Sproles
22. Pierre Thomas
23. Lamar Miller
24. Ryan Mathews
25. Ray Rice
26. Trent Richardson
27. James Starks
28. Rashad Jennings
29. Jacquizz Rodgers
30. DeAngelo Williams
31. Mike Tolbert
32. Peyton Hillis
33. Andre Brown
34. Rashard Mendenhall
35. Shonn Greene
36. Dennis Johnson
37. Donald Brown
38. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
39. Jonathan Stewart
40. Montee Ball
41. Marcel Reece
42. Joique Bell
43. Kendall Hunter
44. Brian Leonard
45. Daniel Thomas
46. Bryce Brown
47. Mark Ingram
48. Bernard Pierce
49. Daryl Richardson*
50. Denard Robinson
51. Lance Dunbar

#6 Marshawn Lynch - (#2 on Fantasy Pros consensus rankings)

I'm a big fan of Marshawn Lynch for sure, but this week there are better options. He isn't the most explosive RB and he doesn't catch a ton of passes. With a number of really good matchups this week, he's not top 5 but he is still going to be in your lineup obviously.

#10 C.J. Spiller - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)

My love for C.J. Spiller was never going away for very long! All I needed was some clarification on his health. He did tweak his ankle, but he reached 15 touches for the first time since week 4 and looked fantastic. Beyond that he was listed as a full participant in practice today. The love is back and this ranking could very well end up too cautious because of the ankles. </End mancrush love talk>

#18 Steven Jackson - (#24 on Fantasy Pros)

I'm not a big fan of Jackson, but he looked decent last week, he also went from 14 touches to 16 touches. He might end up with 20 carries this week. The only other guys below him that might get 20 touches are Ben Tate MAYBE and then Ray Rice and Trent Richardson. No on those two. Couple that with the fact that Seattle has been destroyed by former no-names (but talented guys) Zac Stacy and Mike James, and I'm liking him.

#20 Ben Tate - (#27 on Fantasy Pros)

Obviously this one changes quite a bit if Arian Foster is playing, but I don't think he does. If Tate was healthy enough to get over 20 carries last week, then I am giving my full confidence that any soreness will not be a factor come game time in week 10. That would give Tate a workload in the 18-20 carry range and even against a tough matchup, I am optimistic.

#24 Lamar Miller - (#19 on Fantasy Pros)

This might be an overreaction to all the news surrounding the Dolphins but how can I believe that the offensive line will step up and perform well this week, allowing holes for Miller to slip through? Regardless of what we think of Incognito, he was a pretty good blocker for pass and run. His loss should not be underestimated.

Quicker thoughts...Posted this on Twitter, but the Cowboys allow a lot of receptions and rec yards to RBs. That is good news for both Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. It does look like Sproles will play. If so, he is still a start in PPR formats. Strictly a gut call, but I expect the Chargers to use Ryan Mathews more this week again, limiting Danny Woodhead a little. Broncos have allowed a rushing TD in 7 of 8 games so far. I no longer trust anyone on the Panthers to do well, but Mike Tolbert is still the best shot at a TD. It does look like Peyton Hillis is going to get the start this week. They want to work in Andre Brown slowly. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if Brown ends up with more carries.

Thats it on the RBs for this week. As always feel free to comment here, or tweet me @LopsidedTrades! Thanks for checking the rankings out!

Week 9: 55 & 5 RB Rankings

1. Matt Forte
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Eddie Lacy
5. LeSean McCoy
6. Alfred Morris
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Fred Jackson
9. Chris Johnson
10. Stevan Ridley
11. Arian Foster*
12. DeMarco Murray
13. Darren McFadden
14. Ray Rice
15. Le'Veon Bell
16. Trent Richardson
17. Zac Stacy
18. Danny Woodhead
19. C.J. Spiller
20. Darren Sproles
21. Ryan Mathews
22. Steven Jackson
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Mike James
25. Ben Tate*
26. DeAngelo Williams
27. Jacquizz Rodgers
28. James Starks
29. Chris Ivory
30. Willis McGahee
31. Roy Helu
32. Mike Tolbert
33. Brandon Bolden
34. Daryl Richardson*
35. Bilal Powell
36. Shonn Greene
37. Brian Leonard
38. Donald Brown
39. Joseph Randle
40. Bernard Pierce
41. Marcel Reece
42. Chris Ogbonnaya
43. Tashard Choice
44. Benny Cunningham
45. Robert Turbin
46. Jonathan Stewart*
47. Khiry Robinson
48. LeGarrette Blount
49. Lance Dunbar
50. Rashad Jennings
51. Felix Jones
52. Alex Green

#9 Chris Johnson - (#15 on ESPN Rankings)

This is the ranking that might come back to bite me. BUT Chris Johnson has had two good games in his past three. Sure they were both on fluky passes that ended up going for a lot of yardage, but thats what CJ2K does. I think he actually has a nice run this week and it gives him a good game.

#14 Ray Rice - (#11 on ESPN Rankings)

I haven't given up on Ray Rice for the season, but I'm certainly not positive in the meantime. I actually felt this ranking was generous considering the performance thus far. He is coming off a bye though, so Rice should have hope that this is the week he is fully healthy and performs like he should.

#21 Ryan Mathews - (#14 on ESPN Rankings)

The Ryan Mathews relevance has been nice, and he is still very much relevant at this spot, but he was still a major disappointment before two weeks ago and I don't see that overlying fact changing. This is a nice matchup so he is certainly an RB2 option, but you can do better.

#24 DeAngelo Williams - (#18 on ESPN Rankings)

Sure, DeAngelo got a TD last week, but other than that, his performance was disappointing. He saw his carries go below 10, and he left with a leg injury. Even if the leg injury isn't a problem, the carries are. Mike Tolbert is the goal line back, and Jonathan Stewart may be returning.

#28 Daryl Richardson - (#39 on ESPN Rankings)

Even if Stacy plays, I think Richardson should get 10 carries in this game. I also think he isn't as bad as he showed earlier this season. I think its entirely plausible he could end the day with 10-12 touches and 60-70 yards. Maybe even more if Stacy is out. Worth an add if you own Stacy.

Deeper Thoughts...I still believe in Jacquizz Rodgers as a potential fantasy worthy player despite Steven Jackson's return. Jackson clearly isn't 100%. Ben Tate is one player who could rocket up the rankings if it turns out Arian Foster is out. Of course, Tate has his own problems, but has said he will play. Brian Leonard is a sneaky option for desperate owners, especially in PPR leagues. He had 6 catches last week and really didn't look bad. He could definitely see an uptick in carries. I'm really disappointed with the way the Raiders have underutilized Marcel Reece, I expect that to change eventually.

55 & 5: Week 8 RB rankings

I lied, there are a lot of teams on bye, I don't think there will be 55 worthy players this week! Not that you were starting anyone that far down anyway.

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Reggie Bush
9. Stevan Ridley
10. Fred Jackson
11. Darren Sproles
12. Le'Veon Bell
13. Alfred Morris
14. Giovani Bernard
15. Darren McFadden
16. Jacquizz Rodgers
17. Zac Stacy
18. Steven Jackson
19. Andre Ellington
20. Lamar Miller
21. Chris Ivory
22. Roy Helu
23. Joseph Randle
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
26. Peyton Hillis
27. Pierre Thomas
28. Willis McGahee
29. Joique Bell
30. Brandon Bolden
31. Kendall Hunter
32. Joseph Randle
33. Marcel Reece
34. Daniel Thomas
35. Tashard Choice
36. Lance Dunbar
37. Bilal Powell
38. Alfonso Smith
39. James Starks
40. Khiry Robinson
41. Montee Ball
42. Daryl Richardson
43. Chris Ogbonnaya
44. Rashad Jennings
45. Anthony Dixon
46. Felix Jones
47. Michael Cox
48. Bryce Brown
49. Jonathan Franklin
50. CJ Anderson
51. Justin Forsett

#4 Eddie Lacy - (#8 on ESPN Rankings)

Over the past two weeks Eddie Lacy has shown me that he is an elite back and he has become matchup proof after playing very well against two of the tougher defenses. Play him and watch him perform wonderfully.

#13 Alfred Morris/#22 Roy Helu - (#9/#30 on ESPN Rankings)

I have cautioned people not to overreact to the Roy Helu touchdowns, but I definitely think Helu performed well enough to take away some of the touches from Morris. Either way, I expect both to perform well this week. My ranking of Helu isn't because I think he will steal touchdowns, but rather that if the Redskins fall behind, Helu is the better pass catching RB.

#16 Jacquizz Rodgers - (#28 on ESPN rankings)

I've mentioned this on twitter, but I really believe Jacquizz is the next smaller-sized back in the mold of Sproles and Danny Woodhead. He is great at catching passes out of the backfield. Because of that skillset I think he remains valuable when Steven Jackson comes back. This ranking probably goes down slightly if Jackson is confirmed for certain to be back.

#25 Peyton Hillis - (#35 on ESPN rankings)

Peyton Hillis did not look great in his New York Giant debut, but he got better as the game went along. This is another ranking that could change depending on Brandon Jacobs health. But if Jacobs is out, Hillis clearly played better than Michael Cox and as an RB #1 vs the Eagles, he is a starting option.

#29 C.J. Spiller - (#19 on ESPN Rankings)

No, I haven't given up on C.J. Spiller. Its just that I think he is clearly hurt and it would be a mistake to play him. If I have any reasonable option at all, I am very cautious unless we hear better things. Spiller is highly unlikely to play, confirming my original thoughts. Do not start.

Deeper Looks...I still like Andre Ellington better than Rashard Mendenhall. It's simply in my nature to be very weary of players getting their first start, such as Mike James. I don't see him as a viable option outside of a flex. Brandon Bolden & Daniel Thomas both saw way more time than expected. I actually though Bolden looked very good and even though I like Ridley a lot, Bolden won't be a bad play. Ronnie Hillman is definitely not reliable, but its another matchup where he could end up seeing 8-10 touches, which makes him a decent desperation play. I prefer Lance Dunbar over Joseph Randle in terms of talent. Don't be surprised if he slowly gets more playing time as that game progresses.

As always, if you have any questions about my thinking, leave a comment. You can also tweet me @LopsidedTrades for quick thoughts and suggestions!