Week 16 55 & 5 RB Rankings - The Playoffs!

1. Jamaal Charles
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. DeMarco Murray
5. Adrian Peterson*
6. Reggie Bush
7. Zac Stacy
8. Alfred Morris
9. Le'Veon Bell
10. Eddie Lacy
11. Frank Gore
12. Knowshon Moreno
13. Chris Johnson
14. Rashad Jennings
15. Marshawn Lynch
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Andre Brown
18. Fred Jackson
19. Bobby Rainey
20. Shane Vereen
21. Ryan Mathews
22. Maurice Jones-Drew*
23. Pierre Thomas
24. Steven Jackson
25. C.J. Spiller
26. Chris Ivory
27. Danny Woodhead
28. Darren Sproles
29. Rashard Mendenhall
30. Ray Rice*
31. Stevan Ridley
32. Dennis Johnson
33. Montee Ball
34. DeAngelo Williams
35. Lamar Miller
36. Andre Ellington
37. Joique Bell
38. Trent Richardson
39. Edwin Baker
40. Donald Brown
41. Daniel Thomas
42. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
43. Jordan Todman (top 20 if/when MJD is ruled out)
44. Mike Tolbert
45. Jacquizz Rodgers
46. Bilal Powell
47. Chris Ogbonnaya
48. Michael Bush
49. Bernard Pierce
50. Shonn Greene
51. James Starks
52. Robert Turbin
53. Benny Cunningham
54. Willis McGahee*

#5 Adrian Peterson - (#11 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Look, if Adrian Peterson is in, you have to start him. I think his consensus rank is low beacuse some people are assuming he doesn't play. I am assuming he plays and if he does he will be fine.

#6 Reggie Bush - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)

Reggie Bush continues to play much better at home. Even last week against the Ravens, it was quiet, but another 100 total yards and a TD. Bush averages 16.7 points per home game. He faces the Giants. Enough said.

#9 Le'Veon Bell - ( #6 on Fantasy Pros)

I really like Bell. It appears everyone else likes him even more. I think his ceiling is somewhat limited by the fact that in the current offense he won't average 5.0 YPC. Even against the Packers a 4.0 YPC would be a good game. His real value comes in TD potential and volume of touches. Because of that I will never rank him super high, but I do like him a lot.

#10 Eddie Lacy - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

In the battle of the two best rookie RBs, I like Lacy a little less while the consensus likes him a little more. He is a good play no doubt, but I was impressed with how well the Steelers held the Bengals RBs in check last week. I like him, just don't expect a huge game.

#12 Knowshon Moreno - (#7 on Fantasy Pros)

This isn't an overreaction to how poorly Moreno played last week but more of a belief that as the season winds down, Montee Ball will get more touches as they want to keep Moreno as healthy as possible for the playoffs. He is still their best RB without a doubt.

#15 Marshawn Lynch - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)

The Cardinals continue to be the best fantasy defense against RBs. They are a little vulnerable to pass-catching RBs, which Lynch is not. (This year is Lynch's most rec yards ever at 307) He might get a TD, but he also might only have 50 yards. Not a huge fan.

Quick Thoughts...Possibly overreacting to Shane Vereen but when you don't really run the ball much, you can be factored out. Sproles and Woodhead have proven that as well...Really disappointed in CJ Spiller last week. This ranking reflects that, you would need to be out of good options elsewhere to trust him in your lineup. Dennis Johnson is starting for the Texans this week but I'm not too interested. The Texans are a mess, its a big risk.

Week 13 Waiver Grabs

We are down to the wire here and its becoming must-win time for a lot of people, so waiver moves are especially important. I've ranked the 3-5 best guys to pick up at each position. QBs are for this week only and the rest are a mix of overall and for this week only. Most of these rankings are for players 50% owned or less, but there is an exception or two. For example, I doubt Alex Smith is owned in every competitive league despite his higher %.

QBs: (Yahoo Ownership %)

1. Josh McCown (19%) @ Minnesota

2. Matt Flynn (2%) @ Lions

3. Alex Smith (61%) vs. Broncos

4. E.J. Manuel (8%) vs. Falcons

Josh McCown has been really impressive. After two tough matchups where he got a passable grade, he now faces a much easier defense and should play really well. Flynn is much riskier because we've only seen him play half a game, but its a great matchup and he knows the system well. I have high expectations. Next you have Alex Smith who has been pretty good lately, and has another great matchup. At the same time, I don't think its fair to continually expecting 20 points, so thats why he is lower. Lastly we have the forgotten Manuel in a great matchup as well. He can run a little, and he will potentially have all of his WRs. Its promising

WRs:

1. Michael Crabtree (31%)

2. Nate Burleson (25%)

3. Rod Streater (14%)

4. Robert Woods (7%)

5. Marvin Jones (40%)

Percy Harvin got a ton of hype in his return. Crabtree on the other hand has gotten some, but its way less than Harvin. I really think Crabtree can outperform Harvin going forward. His team needs him more. He is a must add now. Burleson will probably be the top add after last week, and he should definitely be a high priority, specifically in PPR leagues. With Calvin across from him, he should do very well. Streater is a guy that I think has taken over the #1 WR role for Oakland with McGloin in. Two straight good weeks and I like him. *If* Woods is back, he is one you want for this week only. Atlanta is a joke.

RBs:

1. Chris Ogbonnaya (29%)

2. Benny Cunningham (5% - a must for Stacy owners)

3. Donald Brown (41%)

4. Dennis Johnson (41%)

5. Jacquizz Rodgers (41%)

6. Bilal Powell (39%)

I really like the Silent G Ogbonnaya. Over his last two games he has 12 carries for 95 yards. That is a fantastic 7.91 YPC. Unfortunately he has also fumbled in both of those games. He is also their best receiving back. That kind of talent (vs. basically no talent at all in Whittaker/McGahee) wins out. He might not be great this upcoming week, but he is absolutely worth a speculative add for the owner in need of an RB. Next is Cunningham. He had a great game against a terrible defense, so take from that what you will. He is definitely talented. His upside is limited by whether he gets any time. If Stacy is fine, Cunningham will be used sparingly. But he is worth the add on the chance that Stacy is out. A lot of people will sour on Brown after he inexplicably got three carries, but in most games they won't be down by double digits, and Brown will see his time.

TEs:

1. Delanie Walker (49%)

2. Tim Wright (19%)

3. Owen Daniels (16%)

3. John Carlson (12%)

5. Rob Housler (15%)

Slim pickings at Tight End compared to the rest of the positions. The one guy that definitely isn't a streaming option is Walker. Fitzpatrick really likes him. His most recent game wasn't stellar, but it was better than a lot of other middling options. And with Fitz, I think that could be as bad as it gets. I'd take a floor of 4-5 points every week if you don't have a top 5 TE. Tim Wright is next. He won't always be a top option but he has 60-70 yard upside every week. Owen Daniels is an intriguing. His return has quietly crept closer. If you don't need a tight end right away, he is a great add.

My Team is (X Wins)-(X Losses) - What should I be doing?

The season is winding down, most leagues have 3-4 matchups left before the playoffs. Its time to do whatever you can to make the playoffs, and then if you are feeling good about the playoffs, you need to secure the best possible starting lineup that you can get in order to maximize your chance to win.

Let's start from the bottom up:

If your team is a lost cause...

DO NOT be the guy that gives up and doesn't try, or even worse, trades/drops his best players for nothing. Even if its a casual league, if people are competitive, this absolutely ruins it and can have major playoff implications. You wouldn't like it if you suffered because your closest opponent got to pick up Jimmy Graham for nothing, so don't do it. If your league cares, they shouldn't invite you back. Best advice - put in your best lineup and compete every week. Maybe you can crush a friend's playoff hopes in the last week. That's pretty fun on its own!

If you are fairly unlikely to make the playoffs:

Even the best advice might not save you, but its worth a shot to try. Maybe you need to go 3-0 against some tough teams to make it. And even then you might need a couple losses from other guys. Its still possible though! What you need to do is give yourself the best possible chance to win every week, doing almost whatever it takes. Don't go too overboard. But if you are in this scenario and you have...Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, or even Steven Jackson on your bench hoping they will break out, and you are pretty depleted at wide receiver? Drop one for a flier on a guy with a great matchup and some explosive potential. You need something only just short of a miracle, don't be afraid to take it. At the same time, don't outright drop a guy like Andrew Luck because you don't like his Thursday Night matchup this week. Thats too far. But maybe on a hail mary, you start Alex Smith against Denver instead? Just be willing to cut the guys you've been waiting on for a rebound. Its time to stop waiting and start taking action.

If you are on the outside looking in, but close:

So there are 6 playoff spots, and you're in 7th overall right now. You don't want to sacrifice the long run, but you might want to make a few moves to help you out in the short-term too. First off, if you have injured guys, or guys coming off injury (always a gamble), trade them for a more sure thing. I'm referring to guys like Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen, and even Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers you can probably convince another team that he is their key to victory in the playoffs, and hey, "look at my team, I can't afford to keep him, I need someone that can help me now." If its a league where there is a decent amount of communication, some team with a good number of wins will realize its a good point. Trade Rodgers for a WR or RB that you can immediately plug in to improve your team. Outside of that, if you've built a good team over the course of the season, there is not much you can do besides do your best to win every week.

If you are in a playoff spot but far from guaranteed:

This is the trickiest situation in my opinion. You have to play a little defense and be a little aggressive at the same time. Do you make a play for Aaron Rodgers? No, probably not. But this is a team that can give up its 4th or 5th RB/WR for the upside in a guy like Roddy White or Marques Colston, or buy Harvin at current value in hopes of a big boost. You don't want to make too many changes to this team, it did after all put you in playoff spot. But I definitely recommend adding a flier or two, or making a two for one trade for an upgrade at one position. Because you still need to win in the regular season, don't throw away your depth. At the same time depth isn't the most important thing either.

If you are in prime position to make the playoffs:

Well first off, congratulations! You are in the best possible spot to be in. You have a good team, you managed to avoid most of the injuries, and maybe its not a lock to make the playoffs, but a lot of things would have to go wrong for you to miss out of the playoffs. Your motto here should be "Good for Great". You want to deal your good players for great players, bringing yourself the most action packed lineup possible. Great players that are a must start even against tough teams. You want people to look at your team and say its "Matchup proof" For example, I traded Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Kansas City defense for Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is of course one of only two truly elite, near unstoppable tight ends. You can argue that KC is elite, and that has been true so far. Denver might change that and I'm getting out while they are still hot. Thats just one example.

Middle tier players that make a great starting point in a 2 for 1 package for an elite player:
Zac Stacy
Chris Johnson
Gio Bernard
Le'Veon Bell
Keenan Allen
Alshon Jeffery
Denarius Moore
Larry Fitzgerald
Tony Romo
Russell Wilson

Thats a nice list of players to give you an idea. This player would be the main player you trade away (in the darn good, but still not great category) and then package them with a lesser but still good player and receiver a player like Forte, Charles, McCoy, Stafford, Garcon, Andre Johnson, etc. This gives you the extra oomph in your lineup that gives you a better chance to win no matter what the situation is. Then you can sit back and watch the destruction that ensues. Of course it doesn't always work, but at least you'll know you did what you could.

---------------

Well, that wraps it up, I think I covered pretty much every situation. In case you are curious, I have 1 team that is in great position for the playoffs, another that is on the cusp of being certain for the playoffs and still uncertain. Another team just outside, but its a really good team. And then a 16-teamer that basically needs a miracle. To be fair it was the worst draft I've ever had (Spiller & D. Wilson were my top RBs), so the fact that I'm not last is a personal success. Thanks for reading and as always, I hope it helps you a bit!