My Team is (X Wins)-(X Losses) - What should I be doing?

The season is winding down, most leagues have 3-4 matchups left before the playoffs. Its time to do whatever you can to make the playoffs, and then if you are feeling good about the playoffs, you need to secure the best possible starting lineup that you can get in order to maximize your chance to win.

Let's start from the bottom up:

If your team is a lost cause...

DO NOT be the guy that gives up and doesn't try, or even worse, trades/drops his best players for nothing. Even if its a casual league, if people are competitive, this absolutely ruins it and can have major playoff implications. You wouldn't like it if you suffered because your closest opponent got to pick up Jimmy Graham for nothing, so don't do it. If your league cares, they shouldn't invite you back. Best advice - put in your best lineup and compete every week. Maybe you can crush a friend's playoff hopes in the last week. That's pretty fun on its own!

If you are fairly unlikely to make the playoffs:

Even the best advice might not save you, but its worth a shot to try. Maybe you need to go 3-0 against some tough teams to make it. And even then you might need a couple losses from other guys. Its still possible though! What you need to do is give yourself the best possible chance to win every week, doing almost whatever it takes. Don't go too overboard. But if you are in this scenario and you have...Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, or even Steven Jackson on your bench hoping they will break out, and you are pretty depleted at wide receiver? Drop one for a flier on a guy with a great matchup and some explosive potential. You need something only just short of a miracle, don't be afraid to take it. At the same time, don't outright drop a guy like Andrew Luck because you don't like his Thursday Night matchup this week. Thats too far. But maybe on a hail mary, you start Alex Smith against Denver instead? Just be willing to cut the guys you've been waiting on for a rebound. Its time to stop waiting and start taking action.

If you are on the outside looking in, but close:

So there are 6 playoff spots, and you're in 7th overall right now. You don't want to sacrifice the long run, but you might want to make a few moves to help you out in the short-term too. First off, if you have injured guys, or guys coming off injury (always a gamble), trade them for a more sure thing. I'm referring to guys like Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen, and even Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers you can probably convince another team that he is their key to victory in the playoffs, and hey, "look at my team, I can't afford to keep him, I need someone that can help me now." If its a league where there is a decent amount of communication, some team with a good number of wins will realize its a good point. Trade Rodgers for a WR or RB that you can immediately plug in to improve your team. Outside of that, if you've built a good team over the course of the season, there is not much you can do besides do your best to win every week.

If you are in a playoff spot but far from guaranteed:

This is the trickiest situation in my opinion. You have to play a little defense and be a little aggressive at the same time. Do you make a play for Aaron Rodgers? No, probably not. But this is a team that can give up its 4th or 5th RB/WR for the upside in a guy like Roddy White or Marques Colston, or buy Harvin at current value in hopes of a big boost. You don't want to make too many changes to this team, it did after all put you in playoff spot. But I definitely recommend adding a flier or two, or making a two for one trade for an upgrade at one position. Because you still need to win in the regular season, don't throw away your depth. At the same time depth isn't the most important thing either.

If you are in prime position to make the playoffs:

Well first off, congratulations! You are in the best possible spot to be in. You have a good team, you managed to avoid most of the injuries, and maybe its not a lock to make the playoffs, but a lot of things would have to go wrong for you to miss out of the playoffs. Your motto here should be "Good for Great". You want to deal your good players for great players, bringing yourself the most action packed lineup possible. Great players that are a must start even against tough teams. You want people to look at your team and say its "Matchup proof" For example, I traded Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Kansas City defense for Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is of course one of only two truly elite, near unstoppable tight ends. You can argue that KC is elite, and that has been true so far. Denver might change that and I'm getting out while they are still hot. Thats just one example.

Middle tier players that make a great starting point in a 2 for 1 package for an elite player:
Zac Stacy
Chris Johnson
Gio Bernard
Le'Veon Bell
Keenan Allen
Alshon Jeffery
Denarius Moore
Larry Fitzgerald
Tony Romo
Russell Wilson

Thats a nice list of players to give you an idea. This player would be the main player you trade away (in the darn good, but still not great category) and then package them with a lesser but still good player and receiver a player like Forte, Charles, McCoy, Stafford, Garcon, Andre Johnson, etc. This gives you the extra oomph in your lineup that gives you a better chance to win no matter what the situation is. Then you can sit back and watch the destruction that ensues. Of course it doesn't always work, but at least you'll know you did what you could.

---------------

Well, that wraps it up, I think I covered pretty much every situation. In case you are curious, I have 1 team that is in great position for the playoffs, another that is on the cusp of being certain for the playoffs and still uncertain. Another team just outside, but its a really good team. And then a 16-teamer that basically needs a miracle. To be fair it was the worst draft I've ever had (Spiller & D. Wilson were my top RBs), so the fact that I'm not last is a personal success. Thanks for reading and as always, I hope it helps you a bit!

Week 10 QB rankings

1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Matthew Stafford
4. Philip Rivers
5. Russell Wilson
6. Andrew Luck
7. Cam Newton
8. Tony Romo
9. Nick Foles
10. Jake Locker
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Colin Kaepernick
13. Matt Ryan
14. Eli Manning
15. Terelle Pryor
16. Joe Flacco
17. Jay Cutler*
18. Ryan Tannehill
19. Andy Dalton
20. Case Keenum
21. Mike Glennon
22. EJ Manuel
23. Carson Palmer
24. Chad Henne
25. Kellen Clemens
26. Seneca Wallace

#6 Andrew Luck - (#8 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
The Rams have been pretty good at pressuring quarterbacks lately. This was clear against Russell Wilson a couple weeks ago. However, Luck is a much better passing QB than either of those two and is generally a decent play against any competition (14 & 17 points against the 49ers and Seahawks). Not as high of a ceiling, but definitely a higher floor.

#7 Cam Newton - (#9 on Fantasy Pros)
Obviously a tough opponent in the 49ers, but not as great as some give them credit for. Their last three opponents were Carson Palmer, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. All three scored at least 13 points, with Locker getting 21. Cam Newton is much better than any of those, its hard to imagine him doing worse than 15 points. Very easy to see a 20 point game.

#10 Jake Locker - (#13 on Fantasy Pros)
Count me amongst those who believe the Titans will run all day on the Jags. So why am I more optimistic that Locker will be a decent fantasy play? I do believe that in the first quarter they will be passing and Locker will probably get a couple touchdowns. Locker is also somewhat mobile and that should help. Especially if you need a safe play, not a risky high upside pick, Locker is your guy.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Roethlisberger has double digit fantasy points in every single game following week 1. You know who else is in that group? Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. Thats it. There are a couple guys who would be in ther if it weren't for injuries, but the point stands. A reliable option against an average defense.

#13 Matt Ryan - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)
This one is a tough prediction. I've stated on Twitter that Matt Ryan is much better at home than on the road. The Seahawks are notably much worse on the road. Unfortunately Richard Sherman is Richard Sherman, so none of this may matter. BUT Ryan does have a 9:1 TD ratio at home, and his worst game at home is 18 fantasy points. I expect that to come down, but I don't think he will do terrible.

Deeper Thoughts...The stats I mentioned about Big Ben having double digit points in every game after week 1? That also applies to Terelle Pryor besides the game he missed week 3 due to injury. Over his last 3 games, his rushing totals have been 56-106-94. Not bad. Very cautious on the return of Jay Cutler but I do like him going forward. I am pretty optimistic for Case Keenum but I am not ranking him such until I see him with a big game again.

Week 8 QB Rankings

1. Peyton Manning
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Matthew Stafford
4. Drew Brees
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Michael Vick
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Ryan
9. Russell Wilson
10. Colin Kaepernick
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Tom Brady
13. Eli Manning
14. Alex Smith
15. Ryan Tannehill
16. Geno Smith
17. Terrelle Pryor
18. Andy Dalton
19. Carson Palmer
20. Jason Campbell
21. Christian Ponder
22. Chad Henne
23. Thad Lewis
24. Kellen Clemens

#6 Michael Vick - (#10 on ESPN Rankings)\

This call is a little risky because Vick is coming off injury. However, he faces the weak Giants, he has been preparing with the mindset that he is the starter since the beginning of the week. In addition, if Foles had played well last week, Vick was not getting his job back. Thats a big motivation to a QB. There is always the risk he gets hurt, but if he doesn't its a great game.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)

I'm not sure I've ever ranked Big Ben ahead of Tom Brady, but such are the times. If you need an option for the big bye week, Ben is very safe, getting at least 12 points in every game since a disastrous week 1. The Raiders D isn't terrible, but its certainly not great.

#17 Terrelle Pryor - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)

A lot of people see Pryor as a pretty decent bye week QB. I do not. The Steelers are not a great fantasy defense because they don't get a lot of yards, but they are a great defense in terms of yards allowed. Steelers are 6th fewest in total yards allowed. They faced Geno Smith in week 6 and he is somewhat mobile, he had 3 carries for 8 yards. I'll pass for this week, but I do like Pryor long term still.

Quick Thoughts - One QB who has been on a hot streak is Andy Dalton. However he faces the very tough Jets defense and will face a lot of pressure. Dalton is not the type of QB to do well under pressure. Another bad week for Tom Brady last week despite the return on Gronk. I am not ranking him confidently until he shows us otherwise, but its still hard to imagine him struggling this bad normally when Gronk is there. I still like Alex Smith a bit just because of his mobility. Only one game with less than 25 yards rushing. That really adds up.

Rebounds & Breakouts: Players who can improve in the second half

The end of week 8 will mark the halfway point for most fantasy leagues. Unless you play week 17. Either way, its a great time to look at players with a great shot to rebound from a disappointing first half, or younger players with a promising chance to breakout. I'm not just looking at disappointing players and saying "Yeah this guy has sucked, he is sure to bounce back". No, some players with high expectations have looked really bad (Tom Brady, Ray Rice) relative to expectations. I'm looking for players who I believe can be reasonably expected to improve. We will be looking at one breakout and one rebounding player from each position.

Quarterbacks:
Rebound: Colin Kaepernick
Relative to expectations as a decent throwing QB with a good chance for a rushing touchdown, Kaepernick has been a big disappointment. However we saw in week 7 the potential that remains within him and this team. Mario Manningham is expected back soon, and a few weeks after that we should see Michael Crabtree. Those two combined with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis is a huge upgrade. That will improve the passing and take defenders away from focusing on Kaepernick's mobility. I really like Kaepernick in the second half.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning

Breakout: Jake Locker
I was amazed that Jake Locker played as well as he did in week 7. This was a guy who was supposed to be out for 6-8 weeks. He came in against a very tough defense and even though it was an easy loss, he looked great. I'm assuming he isn't fully healthy still, and when he is, thats an impressive player. They are also realizing that they can't rely on Chris Johnson as much. Locker could definitely end up as a viable option for fantasy players without a sure thing at QB.
Honorable Mention: Terrelle Pryor

Running Backs:
Rebound: Trent Richardson
A lot of people are completely bailing on Trent Richardson. Admittedly I don't feel as great about this pick as some others, but I actually liked some of the things I saw in the game against the Broncos. I felt his blocking was pretty weak, but when he got holes, he did well. The Broncos had Von Miller back and they are very tough against the run. Richardson has already faced four of the toughest run defenses in the league. The second half is much easier.
Honorable mentions: C.J. Spiller (I've already explained this elsewhere), Stevan Ridley

Breakout: Le'Veon Bell
Bell struggled mightily against the tough New York Jets in week 6. He then came back and played pretty well against the equally tough Baltimore Ravens. He has had a small sample size and one big game out of the three he has played, so a lot of people still don't know what to make of him. He is the undisputed #1 RB in Pittsburgh and I have high expectations going forward.
Honorable mention: Zac Stacy. There isn't anyone else I feel strongly about, but he would be next. Update: I lied. Andre Ellington is another great possibility!

Wide Receivers:
Rebound: Roddy White
Roddy White's value has tanked with an incredibly disappointing first half. Roddy White is on pace for 344 yards. Roddy White has had 1,100+ yards in six straight seasons. Roddy White has not become magically bad. He finally (for the first time in his career) took a game off to rest. If he has to take another game off, thats fine with me. As long as he makes sure he is fully rested. When he does he will come back and play like the excellent player he is. Did I mention that Matt Ryan made Harry Douglas look like a star?
Honorable Mentions: Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

Breakout: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had a few nice games in the first half, but they were not often. Now with Schaub possibly out, his value is taken a hit. However it seemed like few people gave him credit for his very nice game with Case Keenum throwing (76 yards and a TD). He is extremely talented and should have a chance at a breakout second half regardless of who is throwing. With Andre Johnson opposite him, he won't be the focus of the defense.
Honorable mentions: Robert Woods, Ted Ginn, Aaron Dobson, Tandon Doss

Tight Ends:
Rebound: Garrett Graham
This one is a bit of a stretch as he has never been great. But I'm thinking its more of a rebound to #1 Texans TE numbers. He is talented and simply hasn't performed while Owen Daniels has been out. However it has been a bit of a bad time to step into that role with Schaub's confidence at an all time low, and then a QB making his debut. Things should get better and the Texans still love throwing to their tight ends.
Honorable mention: Heath Miller (doesn't entirely count, but there aren't many good options)

Breakout: Tyler Eifert
I had a couple other options, but Jordan Reed already had his breakout game and I've spoken about Zach Ertz a couple times. Eifert is similar to Ertz in that he has shown some promise, he'sbeen more productive than Ertz even, with a nice touchdown in week 7. He continues to show he is better than Jermaine Gresham ever was. Really the only thing holding him back is Andy Dalton, and if they build a good chemistry, he should be an excellent alternative to AJ Green being double covered.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Ertz, Jeff Cumberland

As always, let me know what you think and send me some tweets @LopsidedTrades!

Reviewing the early and afternoon games of Week 7

Week 7 proved to be a big test for fantasy teams. A large number of players got hurt. At QB you had Jay Cutler, who was a popular start this week, and Sam Bradford. You probably didn't start Sam Bradford, but he was widely owned. Nick Foles also left, and he was a pretty popular pick this week as well. Both guys could be out for an extended period. In the running back department, Arian Foster left very early & did not return. Doug Martin also left and did not return. Both of those injuries to be a little less serious. At WR, Desean Jackson left the game and was a big disappointment for owners. Doesn't appear to be long-term. Lastly Jermichael Finley was carted off. When you hear the words 'carted off' its never a good sign. Naturally, I hope you understand that any person making predictions can't really account for injuries. When you are looking long-term, guys do take a hit in value if they are injury prone, but when making rankings, you can't really lower a guy because he might get hurt. It happens. Lets look position by position at the performances around the league.

QBs:
With Peyton & Andrew Luck still to duel, a lot could change here, but standing atop the leaderboard is Matthew Stafford (26) and he is really a huge step up when Calvin Johnson is healthy. He is close to a must start in all leagues. For the second straight week, Andy Dalton (26) put up huge numbers. Its well known he has the offensive firepower around him. I think he's gotten himself into a groove, and that makes him a good play depending on the matchup. Next week he faces the Jets, and I'm not playing him there. RGIII (25) finally returned to prominence. He is running again. As long as he is healthy, he is a top 5 QB. That is all there is to it. Matt Ryan (22) showed us all how talented he is. He turned Harry Douglas into a star. No problem starting him. Colin Kaepernick (19) also returned to form. He didn't throw a ton, but he didn't make mistakes and had a great day running. I really like him when Manningham and perhaps Crabtree return. Mike Glennon (17) had a respectable day for any desperate owner who started him. It looks like he will be a matchup play. On the disappointing end we have Tony Romo (12), Tom Brady (7), and Nick Foles (5). I know Foles got injured, but if you were expecting a big day, shame on you. I did have him as my 12th or 13th ranked QB, so he was generally the best alternative option on my rankings, but I wasn't expecting much. Long term, it looks like Vick is safe. Tony Romo is a bit inconsistent, but 12 points isn't terrible for a bad day. Tom Brady on the other hand...with Gronk back thats a pretty terrible performance, even against a good defense. I am definitely concerned.

RBs:
No surprises at the top with Matt Forte (28) and Frank Gore (22), but Roy Helu (22) with three touchdowns? This is a bad bad sign for Alfred Morris (9). He got the carries and the yards, but they refused to go to him at the end zone. This might turn into a Bills timeshare from last year but worse. Speaking of the Bills C.J. Spiller (1) looked really bad and just not healthy. I saw someone on Twitter suggest they need to give him a game off. It might be the best option. I'm one of many analysts who has loved Spiller without stepping back, but even I am admitting its time to reel back expectations. I still have hope that its injury-related and he can heal and bring it back for the fantasy playoffs. Jacquizz Rodgers (17) hardly rushed at all, but he has become a very solid pass catcher. He might be a Darren Sproles type player. Reggie Bush (9) had a rough day, but he is still a great option long term. As bad as it was, he came out with 90+ yards. Another bad day for Ray Rice (6), I'm holding, but I'm not stopping anyone else from trading for whatever they can get. It looks pretty bad. Luckily he is on bye next week.

WRs:
Calvin Johnson (27) with that signature day everyone looks for. Had touchdown issues last season  but with his talent, they were bound to come. I would consider him untouchable if I owned him. Across from him, A.J. Green (21) had another big day. He is still a bit dependant on the play of his QB, but if he had a Stafford-type QB...wow. Vincent Jackson (25) with two straight 2 TD games. I was really worried on how he will do with Mike Glennon, but it looks like he can definitely be a top 10 play. Harry Douglas (20) with a great day. This may have been my worst call, but I stand by my reasoning. There was no reason to think Douglas could come out and perform this well. I give him credit, but a lot of that goes to Matt Ryan as well, who played phenomenal football. The same goes for Jarrett Boykin (16). He is looking at long-term relevance. Pick him up if he is still out there. Justin Blackmon (5) and Josh Gordon (2) are guys that everyone was high on but they both got shut down. With those offenses and QBs, it will happen from time to time. Still like both a lot based on talent. Torrey Smith (6) and Pierre Garcon (5) are two #1's on good offenses that got shut down. I'm buying low if I can, especially on Smith. Start all Patriots receivers at your own risk.

TEs:
Well, Gronk (11) is officially back. I'm pretty confident he will be my #1 TE going forward. Jordan Reed (19) had a huge coming out party. He is still available in many leagues. Grab him. He is extremely talented and rose up the depth chart very fast. Tyler Eifert (10) finally had the game I was looking for, but it only came on 3 catches and 4 targets, so I don't really see him as a good play yet. Jeff Cumberland (4) only had 3 catches for 41 yards, but he really looks like a big part of that offense. Zach Ertz (3) is one of my latest man crushes. Another quiet day, but he has definitely overtaken Brent Celek. At least with Nick Foles throwing. No idea how it plays out with Michael Vick.

Thats a wrap for the early games. Time to go watch Peyton destroy Indianapolis! If you want further discussion on a player mentioned above, or a player not mentioned, leave a comment! For quick and brief analysis, tweet me @LopsidedTrades!