Week 11 55 & 5: The RB Rankings

1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Jamaal Charles
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Alfred Morris
6. Frank Gore
7. Matt Forte
8. Knowshon Moreno
9. Reggie Bush
10. Giovani Bernard
11. Eddie Lacy
12. Andre Brown
13. Le'Veon Bell
14. Fred Jackson
15. Chris Ivory
16. Ben Tate
17. Ryan Mathews
18. Danny Woodhead
19. Stevan Ridley
20. Pierre Thomas
21. Andre Ellington
22. CJ Spiller
23. Darren Sproles
24. Ray Rice
25. Rashad Jennings
26. Maurice Jones-Drew
27. Shane Vereen*
28. Lamar Miller
29. Steven Jackson
30. Bobby Rainey
31. Rashard Mendenhall
32. Brian Leonard
33. Jacquizz Rodgers
34. DeAngelo Williams
35. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
36. Mike Tolbert
37. Chris Ogbonnaya
38. Roy Helu
39. Jonathan Stewart
40. Bernard Pierce
41. Willis McGahee
42. Shonn Greene
43. Kendall Hunter
44. Joique Bell
45. James Starks
46. Montee Ball
47. Bilal Powell
48. Dennis Johnson
49. Peyton Hillis
50. Daniel Thomas
51. Christine Michael
52. Bryce Brown
53. Brandon Jacobs

#5 Alfred Morris - (#9 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)

Alfred Morris has at least 13 points in four of his last five games. On the other hand, the Eagles have been surprisingly tough against running backs after a bad start to the season, allowing just 13.8 fantasy points to running backs per game. Thats as a whole, so it includes the 2-3 points a backup would get as well. Its pretty good. I'm just not really buying into them as a good defense. They stopped Eddie Lacy last week as the QB was a third stringer. Not impressed. Morris will perform very well.

#9 Giovani Bernard - (#15 on Fantasy Pros)

I suppose this ranking is pretty aggressive for a guy that doesn't average 18+ touches a game, but Gio is that good. It appears the Bernard is trending upwards in touches, overtaking BJGE as the main ball carrier. Further, the Browns defense just isn't what it was early on in the season. Bernard is an explosive talent, and I guess while I'm down on CJ Spiller, I need someone else to take that explosive talent role!

#10 Reggie Bush - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)

This is definitely a risky call by me, but I don't see Bush playing very well this week. Pittsburgh is a bad matchup for pass catching RBs. The Steelers allow the fewest receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs with just one touchdown reception. Bush can run on them which is why he is still in the top 10, but its hard to see this as a great game.

#13 Fred Jackson - (#22 on Fantasy Pros)

I was surprised I was so far away from the consensus on Fred Jackson. Then again, the Jets have a fantastic defense. They haven't allowed 100 total rushing yards to running backs yet this season, the only team to do so. (The Lions are next best, having allowed exactly 100 rushing yards once) Why so high on Fred Jackson? To be honest I'm probably a bit too high here, and this may come down later on in the week. However, the Jets have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns, which is the tied for the most of any team of those allowing 15 points or less a week to RBs. I do feel like Fjax finds the endzone here.

#16 Chris Ivory - (#24 on Fantasy Pros)

I might be very high on Ivory, but this is one I feel good about. The only worry here is whether Bilal Powell is more involved this week. Its certainly a possible, but Ivory is clearly the better back. The Bills don't allow a ton of yardage, but much like the Steelers last week, the Jets should run the ball 30+ times in this game. If Ivory can get 20 of those, it almost definitely justifies the ranking.

Deeper League Thoughts...My ranking of Stevan Ridley has nothing to do with me expecting Shane Vereen to take a big role, its more respect for a great Panthers defense. As much as I love CJ Spiller, its hard to have any confidence in him this week. It is worth noting that his top three yardages this year have come against Carolina, KC, and Baltimore which are all in the bottom six for fantasy points allowed to running backs. I am low on Ray Rice compared to the consensus, so even in a pretty good matchup against the bears I have no confidence at all. The Browns claim they want to get Chris Ogbonnaya more involved. It makes sense with the way Willis McGahee has been playing. Worth a flier if you're desperate.

My Team is (X Wins)-(X Losses) - What should I be doing?

The season is winding down, most leagues have 3-4 matchups left before the playoffs. Its time to do whatever you can to make the playoffs, and then if you are feeling good about the playoffs, you need to secure the best possible starting lineup that you can get in order to maximize your chance to win.

Let's start from the bottom up:

If your team is a lost cause...

DO NOT be the guy that gives up and doesn't try, or even worse, trades/drops his best players for nothing. Even if its a casual league, if people are competitive, this absolutely ruins it and can have major playoff implications. You wouldn't like it if you suffered because your closest opponent got to pick up Jimmy Graham for nothing, so don't do it. If your league cares, they shouldn't invite you back. Best advice - put in your best lineup and compete every week. Maybe you can crush a friend's playoff hopes in the last week. That's pretty fun on its own!

If you are fairly unlikely to make the playoffs:

Even the best advice might not save you, but its worth a shot to try. Maybe you need to go 3-0 against some tough teams to make it. And even then you might need a couple losses from other guys. Its still possible though! What you need to do is give yourself the best possible chance to win every week, doing almost whatever it takes. Don't go too overboard. But if you are in this scenario and you have...Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, or even Steven Jackson on your bench hoping they will break out, and you are pretty depleted at wide receiver? Drop one for a flier on a guy with a great matchup and some explosive potential. You need something only just short of a miracle, don't be afraid to take it. At the same time, don't outright drop a guy like Andrew Luck because you don't like his Thursday Night matchup this week. Thats too far. But maybe on a hail mary, you start Alex Smith against Denver instead? Just be willing to cut the guys you've been waiting on for a rebound. Its time to stop waiting and start taking action.

If you are on the outside looking in, but close:

So there are 6 playoff spots, and you're in 7th overall right now. You don't want to sacrifice the long run, but you might want to make a few moves to help you out in the short-term too. First off, if you have injured guys, or guys coming off injury (always a gamble), trade them for a more sure thing. I'm referring to guys like Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen, and even Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers you can probably convince another team that he is their key to victory in the playoffs, and hey, "look at my team, I can't afford to keep him, I need someone that can help me now." If its a league where there is a decent amount of communication, some team with a good number of wins will realize its a good point. Trade Rodgers for a WR or RB that you can immediately plug in to improve your team. Outside of that, if you've built a good team over the course of the season, there is not much you can do besides do your best to win every week.

If you are in a playoff spot but far from guaranteed:

This is the trickiest situation in my opinion. You have to play a little defense and be a little aggressive at the same time. Do you make a play for Aaron Rodgers? No, probably not. But this is a team that can give up its 4th or 5th RB/WR for the upside in a guy like Roddy White or Marques Colston, or buy Harvin at current value in hopes of a big boost. You don't want to make too many changes to this team, it did after all put you in playoff spot. But I definitely recommend adding a flier or two, or making a two for one trade for an upgrade at one position. Because you still need to win in the regular season, don't throw away your depth. At the same time depth isn't the most important thing either.

If you are in prime position to make the playoffs:

Well first off, congratulations! You are in the best possible spot to be in. You have a good team, you managed to avoid most of the injuries, and maybe its not a lock to make the playoffs, but a lot of things would have to go wrong for you to miss out of the playoffs. Your motto here should be "Good for Great". You want to deal your good players for great players, bringing yourself the most action packed lineup possible. Great players that are a must start even against tough teams. You want people to look at your team and say its "Matchup proof" For example, I traded Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, and Kansas City defense for Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is of course one of only two truly elite, near unstoppable tight ends. You can argue that KC is elite, and that has been true so far. Denver might change that and I'm getting out while they are still hot. Thats just one example.

Middle tier players that make a great starting point in a 2 for 1 package for an elite player:
Zac Stacy
Chris Johnson
Gio Bernard
Le'Veon Bell
Keenan Allen
Alshon Jeffery
Denarius Moore
Larry Fitzgerald
Tony Romo
Russell Wilson

Thats a nice list of players to give you an idea. This player would be the main player you trade away (in the darn good, but still not great category) and then package them with a lesser but still good player and receiver a player like Forte, Charles, McCoy, Stafford, Garcon, Andre Johnson, etc. This gives you the extra oomph in your lineup that gives you a better chance to win no matter what the situation is. Then you can sit back and watch the destruction that ensues. Of course it doesn't always work, but at least you'll know you did what you could.

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Well, that wraps it up, I think I covered pretty much every situation. In case you are curious, I have 1 team that is in great position for the playoffs, another that is on the cusp of being certain for the playoffs and still uncertain. Another team just outside, but its a really good team. And then a 16-teamer that basically needs a miracle. To be fair it was the worst draft I've ever had (Spiller & D. Wilson were my top RBs), so the fact that I'm not last is a personal success. Thanks for reading and as always, I hope it helps you a bit!

Week 8 TE Rankings

The big question is whether Jimmy Graham plays this week. Even though he has hardly practiced at all, I will be ranking him and ranking him highly. If he plays, he is a must start.

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Julius Thomas
3. Jimmy Graham
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Jason Witten
6. Vernon Davis
7. Jordan Cameron
8. Jordan Reed
9. Charles Clay
10. Heath Miller
11. Jeff Cumberland
12. Tyler Eifert
13. Andrew Quarless
14. Jared Cook
15. Zach Ertz
16. Kyle Rudolph
17. Brandon Pettigrew
18. Zach Miller
19. Joseph Fauria
20. Benjamin Watson
21. Brandon Myers
22. Anthony Fasano
23. Rob Housler
24. Brent Celek
25. Jermaine Gresham
26. Marcedes Lewis
27. Scott Chandler
28. Mychal Rivera
29. Levine Toilolo
30. Lance Kendricks

#16 Kyle Rudolph - (#11 on ESPN Rankings)
With Rudolph if he doesn't get a touchdown, he doesn't do well. I don't chase touchdowns. He has been mediocre with all three QBs at different times. There is no reason to feel hopeful for him here.

#14 Jared Cook - (#17 on ESPN Rankings)
This one is a gut call, but I think Clemens will look for Cook a lot. In a sample size so small that it shouldn't be relevant, Clemens targeted Cook on 2 of his 4 throws last  week. Its reason for hope.

#13 Andrew Quarless - (#26 on ESPN Rankings)
This is another partial gut call, but hear me out. Jermichael Finley is not playing. James Jones is almost definitely not playing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to throw to just two guys the whole game (Jordy and Boykin). Someone will have to step up to be that third target. Quarless should be the third option and that makes him a lot better than most other options here.

Quick thoughts...I've already explained my love for Zach Ertz too many times. That big game is coming. Joseph Fauria didn't have a touchdown last week. If you are really desperate, that makes him an option. Carson Palmer looks horrible for Arizona, but Rob Housler is very talented. I know a number of analysts are higher on him just because of his talent. I can't put my confidence in Palmer right now.

Rebounds & Breakouts: Players who can improve in the second half

The end of week 8 will mark the halfway point for most fantasy leagues. Unless you play week 17. Either way, its a great time to look at players with a great shot to rebound from a disappointing first half, or younger players with a promising chance to breakout. I'm not just looking at disappointing players and saying "Yeah this guy has sucked, he is sure to bounce back". No, some players with high expectations have looked really bad (Tom Brady, Ray Rice) relative to expectations. I'm looking for players who I believe can be reasonably expected to improve. We will be looking at one breakout and one rebounding player from each position.

Quarterbacks:
Rebound: Colin Kaepernick
Relative to expectations as a decent throwing QB with a good chance for a rushing touchdown, Kaepernick has been a big disappointment. However we saw in week 7 the potential that remains within him and this team. Mario Manningham is expected back soon, and a few weeks after that we should see Michael Crabtree. Those two combined with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis is a huge upgrade. That will improve the passing and take defenders away from focusing on Kaepernick's mobility. I really like Kaepernick in the second half.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning

Breakout: Jake Locker
I was amazed that Jake Locker played as well as he did in week 7. This was a guy who was supposed to be out for 6-8 weeks. He came in against a very tough defense and even though it was an easy loss, he looked great. I'm assuming he isn't fully healthy still, and when he is, thats an impressive player. They are also realizing that they can't rely on Chris Johnson as much. Locker could definitely end up as a viable option for fantasy players without a sure thing at QB.
Honorable Mention: Terrelle Pryor

Running Backs:
Rebound: Trent Richardson
A lot of people are completely bailing on Trent Richardson. Admittedly I don't feel as great about this pick as some others, but I actually liked some of the things I saw in the game against the Broncos. I felt his blocking was pretty weak, but when he got holes, he did well. The Broncos had Von Miller back and they are very tough against the run. Richardson has already faced four of the toughest run defenses in the league. The second half is much easier.
Honorable mentions: C.J. Spiller (I've already explained this elsewhere), Stevan Ridley

Breakout: Le'Veon Bell
Bell struggled mightily against the tough New York Jets in week 6. He then came back and played pretty well against the equally tough Baltimore Ravens. He has had a small sample size and one big game out of the three he has played, so a lot of people still don't know what to make of him. He is the undisputed #1 RB in Pittsburgh and I have high expectations going forward.
Honorable mention: Zac Stacy. There isn't anyone else I feel strongly about, but he would be next. Update: I lied. Andre Ellington is another great possibility!

Wide Receivers:
Rebound: Roddy White
Roddy White's value has tanked with an incredibly disappointing first half. Roddy White is on pace for 344 yards. Roddy White has had 1,100+ yards in six straight seasons. Roddy White has not become magically bad. He finally (for the first time in his career) took a game off to rest. If he has to take another game off, thats fine with me. As long as he makes sure he is fully rested. When he does he will come back and play like the excellent player he is. Did I mention that Matt Ryan made Harry Douglas look like a star?
Honorable Mentions: Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

Breakout: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had a few nice games in the first half, but they were not often. Now with Schaub possibly out, his value is taken a hit. However it seemed like few people gave him credit for his very nice game with Case Keenum throwing (76 yards and a TD). He is extremely talented and should have a chance at a breakout second half regardless of who is throwing. With Andre Johnson opposite him, he won't be the focus of the defense.
Honorable mentions: Robert Woods, Ted Ginn, Aaron Dobson, Tandon Doss

Tight Ends:
Rebound: Garrett Graham
This one is a bit of a stretch as he has never been great. But I'm thinking its more of a rebound to #1 Texans TE numbers. He is talented and simply hasn't performed while Owen Daniels has been out. However it has been a bit of a bad time to step into that role with Schaub's confidence at an all time low, and then a QB making his debut. Things should get better and the Texans still love throwing to their tight ends.
Honorable mention: Heath Miller (doesn't entirely count, but there aren't many good options)

Breakout: Tyler Eifert
I had a couple other options, but Jordan Reed already had his breakout game and I've spoken about Zach Ertz a couple times. Eifert is similar to Ertz in that he has shown some promise, he'sbeen more productive than Ertz even, with a nice touchdown in week 7. He continues to show he is better than Jermaine Gresham ever was. Really the only thing holding him back is Andy Dalton, and if they build a good chemistry, he should be an excellent alternative to AJ Green being double covered.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Ertz, Jeff Cumberland

As always, let me know what you think and send me some tweets @LopsidedTrades!