Showing posts with label QBs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QBs. Show all posts

Dec 21, 2013

Week 16 QB Rankings

Slow to come, but they are here! Week 16 QB rankings. Do you start Kirk Cousins in a championship game?! In my opinion, you would have to have poor options to start a guy with so few starts.


  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Cam Newton
  3. Matthew Stafford
  4. Colin Kaepernick
  5. Philip Rivers
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Jay Cutler
  8. Nick Foles
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Ben Roethlisberger
  11. Andy Dalton
  12. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  13. Tom Brady
  14. Tony Romo
  15. Kirk Cousins
  16. Ryan Tannehill
  17. Andrew Luck
  18. Alex Smith
  19. Matt Cassel
  20. Matt Schaub
  21. Matt Ryan
  22. Joe Flacco
  23. Carson Palmer
  24. Eli Manning
  25. Jason Campbell
  26. Matt Flynn
  27. Mike Glennon
  28. Thad Lewis
  29. Matt McGloin
  30. Geno Smith
  31. Kellen Clemens
  32. Chad Henne
#2 Cam Newton - (#5 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
The Saints have proven to be a fairly tough matchup for QBs this season. But I am not afraid. Cam scored 14 points in the first matchup despite throwing for just 148 yards. I highly doubt that happens again.

#3 Matthew Stafford - (#6 on Fantasy Pros)
Stafford has been awful in his last two games - 13 points combined. Before that he hadn't had fewer than 14 in a single game and had strung together 3 straight 20+ performances at one point. Don't let these last two games make you forget about the overall talent. Yes the Giants were really good against QBs for a period, but it was against backups. When they face starting QBs they are one of the worst defenses in the league. In fact, they are third worst if you take out the 4-game stretch where they faced: Freeman, Barkley, Pryor, Tolzien.

#4 Colin Kaepernick  - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
I don't feel as good about this one as I do the other two, but it is a fantastic matchup for Kaep. He has been very solid since Crabtree came back: 17, 12, 20 points with the 12 being against Seattle. At home against Atlanta? 20+ points is reasonable.

#6 Drew Brees - (#3 on Fantasy Pros)
Brees ended up with 19 points last week in a standard ESPN league, continuing the trend where he does not score more than 20 in an away matchup. (He has scored 19 on four separate occasions) Last week was destined for failure until he saved it in the last quarter. This week it is a tougher matchup and I really can't see him having a huge game here. I'd put him in the 15-18 point range.

#8 Nick Foles - (#2 on Fantasy Pros)
I know, Nick Foles has been amazing. But the Bears allow the 7th fewest points to QBs since their bye in week 8. In 7 games since, QBs have averaged 11.57 points a game in a standard league. That's the same as the aforementioned Panthers. I do like Nick Foles, but if you happen to have Jay Cutler, Kaepernick or Rivers, I'm starting them first.

Quick thoughts...Going deeper, I hate myself for it, but I couldn't help but rank Andy Dalton pretty favorably. The Vikings haven't allowed fewer than 18 points since Week 7 when they faced the terrible Giants. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in a similar situation against the Jags. 6 of their last 7 games, opposing QBs have scored 18+. The Dallas/Washington game seems like a shootout on paper, but I'm not very trusting of either QB. Tony Romo has been pretty bland lately and his worst fantasy game in 2013 came against Washington (8 points). Meanwhile I have no interest in playing Kirk Cousins based off of one good game. People did that with Case Keenum and while he did have a second game, we saw what he has become. Speaking of Keenum, I think Matt Schaub has a great chance for a big game if you need a hail mary. Further, I did not intentionally rank three Matt's in a row, but I thought it was funny. If you check Fantasy Pros, all five Matt's starting at QB are ranked consecutively. I love the weird stuff like that.

Dec 14, 2013

Week 15 QB Rankings



  1. Nick Foles
  2. Cam Newton
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Matthew Stafford
  5. Russell Wilson
  6. Matt Ryan
  7. Andrew Luck
  8. Colin Kaepernick
  9. Tom Brady
  10. Tony Romo
  11. Ryan Tannehill
  12. Ben Roethlisberger
  13. Alex Smith
  14. Jay Cutler
  15. Andy Dalton
  16. Joe Flacco
  17. E.J. Manuel
  18. Case Keenum
  19. Matt Cassel
  20. Matt Flynn
  21. Kirk Cousins
  22. Jason Campbell
  23. Carson Palmer
  24. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  25. Eli Manning
  26. Mike Glennon
  27. Matt McGloin
  28. Geno Smith
  29. Chad Henne
  30. Kellen Clemens
Disclosure: These rankings obviously exclude Peyton Manning, who already played. It was a below average game for Peyton, but I have no doubt I would have ranked him #1.

#3 Drew Brees - (#1 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
I just tweeted this: Drew Brees has scored 20+ in 6 of 7 home games this year. He has not scored 20+ in ANY road game. The Rams are a tough opponent. Brees will probably get 17-20, but its not going to be a monster game.

#6 Matt Ryan - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
I really like Matt Ryan this week. I've said a number of times that Matt Ryan has played much better at home this year. Unfortunately he hasn't had a chance to back that stat up much since the Julio Jones injury. He's only had 3 home games in the past 8. The first one was against Tampa WITHOUT Julio or Roddy and he still threw 3 TDs passes. The other two games were against very tough Seattle and New Orleans. He didn't do much, but he didn't make mistakes either (no ints). He has a great matchup here.

#8 Colin Kaepernick - (#13 on Fantasy Pros)
I struggled with this ranking, because I actually do have respect for the Bucs defense. The reason I put him so high is because the Bucs have allowed 4 rushing TDs to QB, tied with two other teams for the most in the league. Revis can lock up one of Crabtree/Boldin, but Kaep will still have the other to throw to. He should be fine.

#10 Tony Romo - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)
Its been several weeks since Romo had a big game of 20+ points. This is despite several favorable matchups. The Packers are another and he has a decent chance to do well, but I'd rather play a number of other guys. Romo is just too up and down.

#11 Ryan Tannehill - (#14 on Fantasy Pros)
Tannehill has proven himself one of the most reliable options when playing at home. He has scored between 13-17 points in every home game. I see no reason why the Patriots would be the team to put him below that mark. There might be guys ranked below Tannehill with more upside, but there are none with a more reliable track record where you should feel great about 15+.

Dec 6, 2013

Week 14 QB Rankings

So normally I don't rank QBs before the Thursday games, but this week was an even easier deicision as that game showed us some of the worst QBs in the game. Luckily, Sunday will be a lot different. With playoffs on the line, I find it very hard to trust Romo after he was a letdown again. Keep that in mind.

  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Matthew Stafford
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Tom Brady
  5. Nick Foles
  6. Cam Newton
  7. Josh McCown
  8. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Philip Rivers
  11. Tony Romo
  12. Andrew Luck
  13. Robert Griffin III
  14. Joe Flacco
  15. E.J. Manuel
  16. Eli Manning
  17. Matt Ryan
  18. Colin Kaepernick
  19. Alex Smith
  20. Mike Glennon
  21. Ryan Tannehill
  22. Carson Palmer
  23. Ben Roethlisberger
  24. Andy Dalton
  25. Jason Campbell
  26. Matt Cassel
  27. Matt McGloin
  28. Kellen Clemens
  29. Geno Smith
  30. Matt Flynn/Scott Tolzien
#3 Drew Brees/#5 Nick Foles - (#5/#3 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Foles has played at an amazing level this year without a doubt. This week he has another great matchup against the generous secondary of the Lions. However this is Drew Brees we are talking about, and Drew Brees at home! Brees has an excellent 19:3 TD:INT ratio at home. This includes tough matchups vs the Cards and 49ers where he threw for over 300 yards in both. The Panthers should be no problem.

#8 Ryan Fitzpatrick - (#15 on Fantasy Pros)
This is another one of those rankings that is aggressive and could pay off or could end poorly, so keep that in mind. But he has had some decent games. We've seen QBs like Alex Smith or even Tony Romo step up and play their best against Denver. Fitzpatrick can do that as well.

#11 Tony Romo - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Romo is so frustrating. He has a great matchup last week and really let me down. This week the matchup is much less enticing. He could very easily do well, but I'm not confident.

Deeper Thoughts: As you can see, very little faith in Andrew Luck. Its another bad matchup and he has really been average since Wayne got hurt. Joe Flacco is probably your best bet in the unowned tier of QBs after Fitzpatrick. Its a good matchup and one where I could see him getting a few deep balls off. Colin Kaepernick has played well lately, but I want absolutely no part of him against the Seahawks. No. Way.

Nov 27, 2013

Week 13 QB Rankings


  1. Matthew Stafford
  2. Tony Romo
  3. Cam Newton
  4. Tom Brady
  5. Peyton Manning
  6. Drew Brees
  7. Josh McCown
  8. Russell Wilson
  9. Andrew Luck
  10. Nick Foles
  11. Matt Flynn
  12. Alex Smith
  13. Philip Rivers
  14. Andy Dalton
  15. Robert Griffin III
  16. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  17. Eli Manning
  18. Carson Palmer
  19. E.J. Manuel
  20. Colin Kaepernick
  21. Ben Roethlisberger
  22. Mike Glennon
  23. Matt Ryan
  24. Case Keenum
  25. Matt McGloin
  26. Ryan Tannehill
  27. Christian Ponder
  28. Brandon Weeden
  29. Joe Flacco
  30. Geno Smith
  31. Kellen Clemens
  32. Chad Henne
#2 Tony Romo - (#4 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Anytime you rank Tony Romo higher than 5th, it screams mistake. Romo is always capable of playing at a high level, but it doesn't always happen when it should. Still, at home this year in 5 games, he has scored 16+ fantasy points in 4 of them. The fifth was a weird 8 against Washington. I like to believe in a decent matchup, Romo steps up here. In a week where other options have tough defenses, Romo is your man.

#5 Peyton Manning - (#2 on Fantasy Pros)
I know, I know, Philip Rivers just cut through the Chiefs Defense like they were butter. But if either one of Justin Houston or Tamba Hali is back and in playing form for this game, they will cause trouble for Peyton. You don't need me to tell you that Peyton hasn't been amazing of late. He hasn't even been great. If it were any other QB they would be 9th or 10th at best, but I feel like 5th is me still putting my faith in Peyton here.

#9 Andrew Luck - (#13 on Fantasy Pros)
I hate this matchup for Luck, the Titans secondary continues to do very well. But I also strongly believe that Andrew's fantasy performance will rebound even if he might struggle in actual game performance. I'm not totally sure how he will score points here, but I am convinced that he will. Faith in a guy who doesn't make too many mistakes, which is where the Titans secondary specializes.

#10 Nick Foles - (#7 on Fantasy Pros)
There are a lot of reasons to like Nick Foles here. His TD:Int ratio being at the top. But the Cardinals D is good and Foles can't go on mistake-free for the rest of the year. With an extremely athletic secondary and a solid pass rush, if there was ever a game for Foles to struggle this is it. Remember that he hasn't been perfect, he did struggle against the Cowboys too.

#11 Matt Flynn - (#21 on Fantasy Pros)
I really struggled on where to put Flynn, but I ultimately feel pretty good about this spot. Flynn looked pretty impressive stepping in unexpectedly last week. He couldn't do anything in OT, but he didn't make mistakes either. Over their past 5 games, the Lions have given up 14 passing TDs. The Vikings in that same timespan have given up just 10. Thats about a full pass TD a game, or 4 extra points in a standard league. I truly believe its within reason to think 20 pts is reachable here. and 15 is my expectation.

Quicker Thoughts...I am actually in line with the consensus (1 spot ahead), so I didn't point out Josh McCown, but its a great matchup. He should really flourish here. Another good matchup for Alex Smith who has had 20+ in 3 of his last four, including the first matchup vs DEN. Its also a really good matchup for E.J. Manuel against Atlanta. He's still a rookie and ranked as such, but if you need a potential high ceiling, he would be a good pick. And as much as NYG-WAS screams shootout on paper, I don't want any part of either QB.

Nov 26, 2013

Week 13 Waiver Grabs

We are down to the wire here and its becoming must-win time for a lot of people, so waiver moves are especially important. I've ranked the 3-5 best guys to pick up at each position. QBs are for this week only and the rest are a mix of overall and for this week only. Most of these rankings are for players 50% owned or less, but there is an exception or two. For example, I doubt Alex Smith is owned in every competitive league despite his higher %.

QBs: (Yahoo Ownership %)
1. Josh McCown (19%) @ Minnesota
2. Matt Flynn (2%) @ Lions
3. Alex Smith (61%) vs. Broncos
4. E.J. Manuel (8%) vs. Falcons

Josh McCown has been really impressive. After two tough matchups where he got a passable grade, he now faces a much easier defense and should play really well. Flynn is much riskier because we've only seen him play half a game, but its a great matchup and he knows the system well. I have high expectations. Next you have Alex Smith who has been pretty good lately, and has another great matchup. At the same time, I don't think its fair to continually expecting 20 points, so thats why he is lower. Lastly we have the forgotten Manuel in a great matchup as well. He can run a little, and he will potentially have all of his WRs. Its promising

WRs:
1. Michael Crabtree (31%)
2. Nate Burleson (25%)
3. Rod Streater (14%)
4. Robert Woods (7%)
5. Marvin Jones (40%)

Percy Harvin got a ton of hype in his return. Crabtree on the other hand has gotten some, but its way less than Harvin. I really think Crabtree can outperform Harvin going forward. His team needs him more. He is a must add now. Burleson will probably be the top add after last week, and he should definitely be a high priority, specifically in PPR leagues. With Calvin across from him, he should do very well. Streater is a guy that I think has taken over the #1 WR role for Oakland with McGloin in. Two straight good weeks and I like him. *If* Woods is back, he is one you want for this week only. Atlanta is a joke.

RBs:
1. Chris Ogbonnaya (29%)
2. Benny Cunningham (5% - a must for Stacy owners)
3. Donald Brown (41%)
4. Dennis Johnson (41%)
5. Jacquizz Rodgers (41%)
6. Bilal Powell (39%)

I really like the Silent G Ogbonnaya. Over his last two games he has 12 carries for 95 yards. That is a fantastic 7.91 YPC. Unfortunately he has also fumbled in both of those games. He is also their best receiving back. That kind of talent (vs. basically no talent at all in Whittaker/McGahee) wins out. He might not be great this upcoming week, but he is absolutely worth a speculative add for the owner in need of an RB. Next is Cunningham. He had a great game against a terrible defense, so take from that what you will. He is definitely talented. His upside is limited by whether he gets any time. If Stacy is fine, Cunningham will be used sparingly. But he is worth the add on the chance that Stacy is out. A lot of people will sour on Brown after he inexplicably got three carries, but in most games they won't be down by double digits, and Brown will see his time.

TEs:
1. Delanie Walker (49%)
2. Tim Wright (19%)
3. Owen Daniels (16%)
3. John Carlson (12%)
5. Rob Housler (15%)

Slim pickings at Tight End compared to the rest of the positions. The one guy that definitely isn't a streaming option is Walker. Fitzpatrick really likes him. His most recent game wasn't stellar, but it was better than a lot of other middling options. And with Fitz, I think that could be as bad as it gets. I'd take a floor of 4-5 points every week if you don't have a top 5 TE. Tim Wright is next. He won't always be a top option but he has 60-70 yard upside every week. Owen Daniels is an intriguing. His return has quietly crept closer. If you don't need a tight end right away, he is a great add.

Nov 22, 2013

Week 12 QB Rankings


  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Matthew Stafford
  3. Tom Brady
  4. Cam Newton
  5. Tony Romo
  6. Colin Kaepernick
  7. Andrew Luck
  8. Eli Manning
  9. Mike Glennon
  10. Robert Griffin III
  11. Philip Rivers
  12. Case Keenum
  13. Ben Roethlisberger
  14. Alex Smith
  15. Christian Ponder
  16. Joe Flacco
  17. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  18. Carson Palmer
  19. Josh McCown
  20. Ryan Tannehill
  21. Scott Tolzien
  22. Geno Smith
  23. Jason Campbell
  24. Matt McGloin
  25. Chad Henne
  26. Kellen Clemens
#6 Colin Kaepernick - (#8 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
If not now, when? Manningham is at full health, the Redskins won't be able to stop Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis. That should open the run game too. Obviously a great matchup so you want to be starting Kaep here.

#8 Eli Manning - (#11 on Fantasy Pros)
Eli Manning's only fantasy performance above 15 points this year? In week 1 against Dallas of course, where he scored a whopping 28. I'm not saying that is going to happen again, but you don't need me to tell you that Dallas gives up a lot of points. To be precise, they allow the most points to QBs fantasy-wise. If Eli can't perform here, I would be very surprised, as bad as he has been lately.

#9 Mike Glennon - (#12 on Fantasy Pros)
The Mike Glennon bandwagon has really started to pick up. I've heard some very smart analysts say Glennon is easily the most impressive rookie QB playing this year. The list is not that extensive or impressive, but its high praise for the 3rd round pick. 15 or more points in 5 of his 6 games since coming off the bye. Against the Lions? Should be no problem.

#11 Philip Rivers - (#16 on Fantasy Pros)
The ranking I differ on most from the consensus this week. Rivers has cooled off somewhat, but still has double-digit fantasy points in every single game this year. The Chiefs are a consistent defense, but rarely completely shut down a quarterback. Only Blaine Gabbert (remember him?) & interception champ Eli Manning have had less than double digit points against the Chiefs this year. Its not great, but its not good either.

#12 Case Keenum - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
Everyone loves this matchup against Jacksonville, and its hard to blame them. But for me I still see a first-year starting QB that hasn't figured it all out yet. He didn't do awful vs the Raiders, but it wasn't as good as you hoped before he got benched (unfairly I might add).

Quicker Hits...I've seen a lot of people optimistic on Scott Tolzien this week as well. Not me. Consider this: Tolzien threw 3 picks against the Giants. The same Giants that could only get 1 interception each from Matt Barkley, Terrelle Pryor, and Josh Freeman. I'll pass. I wouldn't get tempted by Josh McCown either. The Rams have shut down QBs lately. I do kind of like Christian Ponder against the Packers. Before getting shut down against the Seahawks (and that was expected), he had been an okay alternate option as a fantasy QB lately.

Nov 1, 2013

Week 9 QB Rankings

I always do my QB rankings on Fridays. As a non-professional, I just don't have the time to get those rankings done with the amount of time I put into RB and WR rankings. This is one of the weeks where I was somewhat glad I didn't have to rank them. As much as I think Andy Dalton is merely okay, he was playing at such a high level lately that I would have had to respect him in the rankings.

On the whole, players that are not that talented don't score a lot of fantasy points. As obvious as that sounds, its easy to forget when a guy like Dalton scores 20 points in three games straight. Talent (usually) doesn't develop overnight. Its a long process. The same for declining talent, such as Tom Brady perhaps. With that, lets jump into the rankings.

  1. Drew Brees
  2. Cam Newton
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Philip Rivers
  5. Tony Romo
  6. Robert Griffin III
  7. Andrew Luck
  8. Russell Wilson
  9. Terrelle Pryor
  10. Matt Ryan
  11. Ben Roethlisberger
  12. Joe Flacco
  13. Alex Smith
  14. Tom Brady
  15. Jake Locker
  16. Nick Foles
  17. Christian Ponder
  18. Josh McCown
  19. Geno Smith
  20. Case Keenum
  21. Jason Campbell
  22. Thad Lewis**
  23. Mike Glennon
  24. Kellen Clemens
  25. Jeff Tuel/Matt Flynn**
** - A lot of uncertainty in Buffalo this week. If Its not Lewis, they are dead last in my rankings.

#6 Robert Griffin III - (#9 on ESPN Rankings)
RGIII suffered a big setback on the road to fantasy recovery last week. Before last week he was making a lot of improvements, and I still see him as startable. Its certainly a risk, but one that is worth taking.

#8 Russell Wilson - (#5 on ESPN Rankings)
Russell Wilson himself is a very capable quarterback. His offensive line however, is well below average right now. Tampa Bay doesn't get a ton of sacks, but they aren't one of the worst defenses and they can certainly pressure the QB. 8th isn't bad, but I don't see this as a great week for Wilson.

#9 Terrelle Pryor - (#12 on ESPN Rankings)
Pryor struggled mightily last week against the tough Steelers, after his giant first run that is. This week, I see Pryor running all over the Eagles and his passing game should be much improved as well. Definitely a great alternative option this week.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger - (#14 on ESPN rankings)
I am definitely concerned about the return of shutdown corner Aqib Talib. However, since a disastrous week 1, Roethlisberger has had double digit fantasy points in every game. That is more than you can say about a lot of other good QBs this season. Roethlisberger is a safe and reliable backup option.

#12 Joe Flacco - (#17 on ESPN Rankings)
I like guys coming off their bye. Especially with the run blocking and rushing struggles, this is a pass first team. Jacoby Jones is fully healthy, Tandon Doss and Marlon Brown are some of the better #3 and #4 options out there. Even if Torrey Smith struggles against Joe Haden, Flacco himself should play decently.

Deeper Thoughts...I really like Jake Locker, he is essentially mistake free. After seeing the Rams crush Russell Wilson, I am definitely concerned for this week. The next two guys after Locker on my rankings, Nick Foles and Christian Ponder are both two guys that I expect to play well this week in good matchups. Case Keenum is not a good fantasy option, but he is definitely a guy that I am excited to watch. If he became a top 15 QB it would be a great story. Its certainly possible!

As always, be sure to follow me on twitter @LopsidedTrades for a lot more analysis!

Oct 25, 2013

Week 8 QB Rankings




  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Aaron Rodgers
  3. Matthew Stafford
  4. Drew Brees
  5. Robert Griffin III
  6. Michael Vick
  7. Tony Romo
  8. Matt Ryan
  9. Russell Wilson
  10. Colin Kaepernick
  11. Ben Roethlisberger
  12. Tom Brady
  13. Eli Manning
  14. Alex Smith
  15. Ryan Tannehill
  16. Geno Smith
  17. Terrelle Pryor
  18. Andy Dalton
  19. Carson Palmer
  20. Jason Campbell
  21. Christian Ponder
  22. Chad Henne
  23. Thad Lewis
  24. Kellen Clemens
#6 Michael Vick - (#10 on ESPN Rankings)\
This call is a little risky because Vick is coming off injury. However, he faces the weak Giants, he has been preparing with the mindset that he is the starter since the beginning of the week. In addition, if Foles had played well last week, Vick was not getting his job back. Thats a big motivation to a QB. There is always the risk he gets hurt, but if he doesn't its a great game.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)
I'm not sure I've ever ranked Big Ben ahead of Tom Brady, but such are the times. If you need an option for the big bye week, Ben is very safe, getting at least 12 points in every game since a disastrous week 1. The Raiders D isn't terrible, but its certainly not great.

#17 Terrelle Pryor - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)
A lot of people see Pryor as a pretty decent bye week QB. I do not. The Steelers are not a great fantasy defense because they don't get a lot of yards, but they are a great defense in terms of yards allowed. Steelers are 6th fewest in total yards allowed. They faced Geno Smith in week 6 and he is somewhat mobile, he had 3 carries for 8 yards. I'll pass for this week, but I do like Pryor long term still.

Quick Thoughts - One QB who has been on a hot streak is Andy Dalton. However he faces the very tough Jets defense and will face a lot of pressure. Dalton is not the type of QB to do well under pressure. Another bad week for Tom Brady last week despite the return on Gronk. I am not ranking him confidently until he shows us otherwise, but its still hard to imagine him struggling this bad normally when Gronk is there. I still like Alex Smith a bit just because of his mobility. Only one game with less than 25 yards rushing. That really adds up.

Oct 23, 2013

Rebounds & Breakouts: Players who can improve in the second half

The end of week 8 will mark the halfway point for most fantasy leagues. Unless you play week 17. Either way, its a great time to look at players with a great shot to rebound from a disappointing first half, or younger players with a promising chance to breakout. I'm not just looking at disappointing players and saying "Yeah this guy has sucked, he is sure to bounce back". No, some players with high expectations have looked really bad (Tom Brady, Ray Rice) relative to expectations. I'm looking for players who I believe can be reasonably expected to improve. We will be looking at one breakout and one rebounding player from each position.

Quarterbacks:
Rebound: Colin Kaepernick
Relative to expectations as a decent throwing QB with a good chance for a rushing touchdown, Kaepernick has been a big disappointment. However we saw in week 7 the potential that remains within him and this team. Mario Manningham is expected back soon, and a few weeks after that we should see Michael Crabtree. Those two combined with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis is a huge upgrade. That will improve the passing and take defenders away from focusing on Kaepernick's mobility. I really like Kaepernick in the second half.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning

Breakout: Jake Locker
I was amazed that Jake Locker played as well as he did in week 7. This was a guy who was supposed to be out for 6-8 weeks. He came in against a very tough defense and even though it was an easy loss, he looked great. I'm assuming he isn't fully healthy still, and when he is, thats an impressive player. They are also realizing that they can't rely on Chris Johnson as much. Locker could definitely end up as a viable option for fantasy players without a sure thing at QB.
Honorable Mention: Terrelle Pryor

Running Backs:
Rebound: Trent Richardson
A lot of people are completely bailing on Trent Richardson. Admittedly I don't feel as great about this pick as some others, but I actually liked some of the things I saw in the game against the Broncos. I felt his blocking was pretty weak, but when he got holes, he did well. The Broncos had Von Miller back and they are very tough against the run. Richardson has already faced four of the toughest run defenses in the league. The second half is much easier.
Honorable mentions: C.J. Spiller (I've already explained this elsewhere), Stevan Ridley

Breakout: Le'Veon Bell
Bell struggled mightily against the tough New York Jets in week 6. He then came back and played pretty well against the equally tough Baltimore Ravens. He has had a small sample size and one big game out of the three he has played, so a lot of people still don't know what to make of him. He is the undisputed #1 RB in Pittsburgh and I have high expectations going forward.
Honorable mention: Zac Stacy. There isn't anyone else I feel strongly about, but he would be next. Update: I lied. Andre Ellington is another great possibility!

Wide Receivers:
Rebound: Roddy White
Roddy White's value has tanked with an incredibly disappointing first half. Roddy White is on pace for 344 yards. Roddy White has had 1,100+ yards in six straight seasons. Roddy White has not become magically bad. He finally (for the first time in his career) took a game off to rest. If he has to take another game off, thats fine with me. As long as he makes sure he is fully rested. When he does he will come back and play like the excellent player he is. Did I mention that Matt Ryan made Harry Douglas look like a star?
Honorable Mentions: Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

Breakout: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had a few nice games in the first half, but they were not often. Now with Schaub possibly out, his value is taken a hit. However it seemed like few people gave him credit for his very nice game with Case Keenum throwing (76 yards and a TD). He is extremely talented and should have a chance at a breakout second half regardless of who is throwing. With Andre Johnson opposite him, he won't be the focus of the defense.
Honorable mentions: Robert Woods, Ted Ginn, Aaron Dobson, Tandon Doss

Tight Ends:
Rebound: Garrett Graham
This one is a bit of a stretch as he has never been great. But I'm thinking its more of a rebound to #1 Texans TE numbers. He is talented and simply hasn't performed while Owen Daniels has been out. However it has been a bit of a bad time to step into that role with Schaub's confidence at an all time low, and then a QB making his debut. Things should get better and the Texans still love throwing to their tight ends.
Honorable mention: Heath Miller (doesn't entirely count, but there aren't many good options)

Breakout: Tyler Eifert
I had a couple other options, but Jordan Reed already had his breakout game and I've spoken about Zach Ertz a couple times. Eifert is similar to Ertz in that he has shown some promise, he'sbeen more productive than Ertz even, with a nice touchdown in week 7. He continues to show he is better than Jermaine Gresham ever was. Really the only thing holding him back is Andy Dalton, and if they build a good chemistry, he should be an excellent alternative to AJ Green being double covered.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Ertz, Jeff Cumberland

As always, let me know what you think and send me some tweets @LopsidedTrades!

Oct 17, 2013

Week 7 QB Rankings

It's a unique week where we have quite a few wildcards at the QB position. You have Nick Foles and Thad Lewis coming off great fantasy weeks and then Josh Freeman very quickly thrust into a new role and Case Keenum making his career debut. Matt Ryan may be without a single receiver who has previously shown us anything. It should be fun to see how it all unfolds! Making predictions on the other hand...

  1. Peyton Manning
  2. Tony Romo
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Jay Cutler
  5. Philip Rivers
  6. Matthew Stafford
  7. RGIII
  8. Cam Newton
  9. Andrew Luck
  10. Tom Brady
  11. Matt Ryan
  12. Nick Foles
  13. Eli Manning
  14. Ben Roethlisberger
  15. Colin Kaepernick
  16. Joe Flacco
  17. Ryan Tannehill
  18. Alex Smith
  19. Mike Glennon
  20. Josh Freeman
  21. Brandon Weeden
  22. Geno Smith
  23. Andy Dalton
  24. Jake Locker
  25. Chad Henne
  26. Sam Bradford
  27. Thad Lewis
  28. Case Keenum
Jay Cutler #4 - #9 on ESPN Rankings
Jay Cutler has now had two straight games with 20+ fantasy points and five of six have been 16 or better. He has turned into a very reliable fantasy option this season and now faces a very light Redskins defense.

Cam Newton #8 - #2 on ESPN Rankings
I guess the expert thinking here is that the Rams have been destroyed by the running game so Cam should bowl over them. That might happen, but it should be noted that when the faced Kaepernick, he only ran 3 times for 11 yards. Its not the best comparison, but its what we have. Couple that with the fact that Newton has been a very poor option when he hasn't scored a rushing TD this season and I'm much more conservative on him.

Andrew Luck #9 - #4 on ESPN Rankings
Its pretty hard to think this game won't end up just like the Cowboys-Broncos game. There is one big difference: Von Miller. I think Peyton wants to crush the Colts and this whole team plays fierce football, and Miller wreaks havoc in his return. Luck is still a good play, but not a great one.

Joe Flacco #16 - #21 on ESPN Rankings
The Steelers are definitely a tough defense, and I respect that. This ranking is more a reflection of the options below him I like less. Flacco is a clear step above guys like Tannehill and Smith in talent. He also has a wider range of options to throw to with Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown both back, plus the emergence of Tandon Doss as a reliable target. Not a bad deeper play.

Mike Glennon #19 - #25 on ESPN Rankings
Last week against an awful defense, Glennon played very nicely. The Falcons are almost as forgiving against opponent QBs, being 5th in most points allowed to QBs compared to the Eagles 4th. He shouldn't have another 18 point day, but he won't be terrible either.