Why the Yankees are in trouble. (No, its not the fault of Posada or Jeter)

The Yankees are in trouble. Real season-long trouble. Not just the day-to-day grumblings of veteran players who may or may not have finally lost their skills. No sir, the Yankees are in the kind of trouble that will last the entire season. Their rotation is bad, really bad for a team that still thinks they can win the World Series. In detail, let’s take a look at why it is so bad.

Pitching –

Everyone knew the Yankees pitching was going to be the weak spot. Andy Pettitte retired. Then, they failed to get Cliff Lee this offseason, and didn’t acquire another big name free agent pitcher elsewhere. If things couldn’t get worse, All-star pitcher Phil Hughes looked horrifyingly similar to Chien-Ming Wang from 2009. For those of you that don’t recall, Wang pitched in 12 games with a 9.64 ERA before going on the DL that year and hasn’t pitched since. He’s now with the Nationals. Phil Hughes this year had a 13.94 ERA which is insane, even for 3 starts, and was giving out home runs like they were party favors. Dustin Pedroia and Nick Markakis, both of whom have struggled mightily out of the gate this season, each hit homers against the struggling Hughes. After going on the DL with no real cause for the injury, he has been supposedly building up arm strength, but still has no timetable for his return, and no one has a clue to whether he can pitch with the velocity he had in the middle of last year.

So the Yankees rotation was lacking big time. Who are expected to be the saviors? Big Fat Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova. Even now, when Colon and Garcia are looking decent to great,  I would be amazed if any of them end with more than 20 starts or an ERA under 4.00. Bartolo Colon didn’t even pitch in 2010, so whats the apparent secret to his success this year? Stem cell treatment. Bone marrow stem cells were placed in Colon’s elbow to repair ligament damage, and apparently it has worked like a charm. I don’t know much about the whole stem cell process, but this is awesome. Colon’s fastball is back up to speed and he is throwing without pain in his arm. Apparently he is so pain-free that he is throwing fastballs at a rate of more than 90% per outing. That is insane. Because of this, everyone is all excited about him, ignoring the underlying facts that he is still 38 years old and looked fairly terrible from 2006-2009. In all likelihood, one surgery cannot undo all of these facts for the 38 year old. You can keep buying on Colon, but I’m selling right now.

Freddy Garcia is somewhat of a different story. He is only 34, but he was a workhorse who pitched over 200 innings seven times in his twenties. It appeared at age 30 that he had already hit  a wall, and has shown nothing since to suggest otherwise. Last year his K rate was at an all-time low. This year it has returned to the highest levels it’s been since he was 27. I don’t know about you, but that looks unsustainable to me. He’s also walking guys at a higher clip than he has since his first two years in the big leagues. There is also evidence to suggest he has been fairly lucky up to this point. He has a high strand rate, that is to say, he has a left a lot of runners on base, which is something that tends to normalize around 70%, this year he has left 86% of runners on base. His BABIP is also below career levels, which means he is likely to start allowing more hits.

The rest of the staff is pitching about as expected. Sabathia is doing decently, and will probably get a little bit better as the season goes on. (He always underperforms in April.) Nova is pitching right about as expected, 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He is projected to be a #4 or #5 starter in the big leagues, and his numbers are on par with an average back-of-the-rotation guy. However, the Yankees are no average team, at some point Nova will have to be replaced by a higher quality pitcher. And of course, A.J. Burnett is pitching like his overrated self. An ERA around 4, eating up a decent amount of innings for the Yankees, but not performing like the all-star that people for some reason expect him to be. (Note: Burnett has never been to an all-star game and probably never will)

In summation the Yankees rotation goes like this: One great pitcher, one guy who is pitching good and could sustain it but probably won’t, one guy who is pitching good and has been very lucky and will probably get bad sooner rather than later, one guy eating up innings but not pitching like the all-star he isn’t, and a young guy who could make it on an average team, but the Yankees are no average team. Hopefully Phil Hughes can come back strong, but even if he does, they will need another arm in that rotation if they want to contend for a playoff spot. I’ve heard rumors about Felix Hernandez being available, but I doubt the Yankees have what it takes to get that deal done. I’ve also heard that the Yankees would be interested in Francisco Liriano, who the Twins are indeed considering trading, but he is a major warning sign at this point. Even with the no-hitter this season has been ugly.

Realistic possible options include Brett Myers of the Astros who would be a nice #3 or #4 starter for this year and the next, or perhaps Erik Bedard who is only signed through this year, making him low-risk and potentially high reward with the skillset he has. Of course, there is always a surprise team that becomes sellers, and a bigger name comes out on the trading block. That team this year is the White Sox, all five of their pitchers are decent. Edwin Jackson is the most likely candidate, considering he is a free agent after this year and is aggravatingly inconsistent, although great at times. That is the kind of guy the Yankees would be willing to take a risk on. Although rest assured, I am sure they will ask about the possibility of John Danks, who is Jackson’s much more talented teammate. Lastly, I’m going to throw out a couple more guys who are free agents and possible guys that these teams would love to trade for rebuilding chips: Ryan Dempster and Brad Penny.