Zach’s quick thoughts before the start of the season!

 

We made it through another pandemic offseason and this time around the NFL and fantasy players are more prepared. We’ve got an extra game and extra week. Week 17 is going to be important and that will feel weird! I wanted to jot down some thoughts for the season just to have some of my beliefs for the season ahead recorded. Here they are:

Even in 2QB leagues, it won’t be too hard to find QBs on the waiver.

In 2018, 68 QBs saw the field and 52 scored at least 5 points. 5 points is my “Okay, if I’m in a real tight pinch, at least I am getting SOMETHING here”. Note this is 2QB, the bar would be a little higher in superflex but you are still better off taking a chance on a QB and possibly getting 10 points than whatever W/R/T you would have put in. Continuing on, in 2019 74 QBs played and 58 scored at least 5 points. In 2020 we had COVID issues and things got weird. EIGHTY-FOUR QBs played and 64 scored at least 5 points! Even if we exclude Week 17 you still have guys like Jeff Driskel, Ryan Finley, Garrett Gilbert, and even Colt McCoy managed a start. We are in strange times and it is easier than ever to find QBs off the wire in your start-2 leagues. So don’t fret and overpay for someone like Andy Dalton. There is a good chance in any given week you can find a guy on the wire. 

The same goes for very deep leagues. I am in a 20 team 1QB league with 40 QBs rostered. Everyone is fretting about having a bye week plan or two options. I am the only team with one QB and I took Josh Allen. Obviously I don’t need to worry about a backup option unless he gets hurt in which case I am screwed anyway. I just need a bye week fill in for Week 7 and I am betting I can get it.

Position by position, thoughts, predictions and even some bold predictions:

Ben Roethlisberger will be quite bad this year and finish outside the 20 and even possibly get benched for performance.

Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz are two guys outside of FantasyPros top 20 draft rankings that finish in the top 15. Daniel Jones in particular surprises people by being pretty good with a healthy and talented offense around him.

Zach Wilson finishes first among rookie QBs.

RB thoughts:

Jonathan Taylor, drafted in the mid-late 1st as the 7th-9th RB off the board usually, finishes as a top 3 RB with a good shot at RB1.

James Robinson puts up another top-twelve season and establishes himself as the RB1 even when Travis Etienne returns in 2022.

Mike Davis (RB24 FantasyPros) finishes top 15.

Darrell Henderson and Gus Edwards - the guys that benefited from injury - both finish outside the top 24.

Javonte Williams is a top 15 RB in the second half.

James Conner outscores Chase Edmonds.

Gio Bernard is a solid flex play with Tom Brady. He gets at least 50 receptions, which he hasn't hit since 2017 and only twice in his career.

WR Thoughts:

I REALLY like Terrace Marshall, but the QB play and two good WRs ahead of him will likely keep him from having a big rookie season. Still, he is one to watch in dynasty that I just had to mention. If I wrote an article about a rookie this year, it would have been him. (Chase Claypool last year)

AJ Brown has his best season yet despite Julio taking a lot of targets.

No Tampa receiver finishes top 15.

Corey Davis finishes top 20 with 150+ targets.

DJ Chark (WR40) is a top 24 receiver.

Michael Thomas comes back huge in the second half and is a top 5 WR from Week 10 on, reestablishing his value.

Jakobi Meyers, Henry Ruggs and Mecole Hardman are all ranked outside the top 50 but finish top 40. Jakobi is top 30.

Tyrell Williams (WR72) finishes top 36 as the target hog WR1 in Detroit.

If I’m looking to highlight a guy outside the top 100 WRs, it would be Quez Watkins in Philly. He played a large role in Travis Fulgham not making the 53. He’s got blazing speed and had some big numbers at Southern Miss. He is one to watch for sure.

TE:

I just can’t get behind Kyle Pitts doing anything exceptional in year 1. I’m predicting something like 550 yards and 6 TDs which would be great for a rookie TE but far below what seems to be the expectation.

I am firmly in the Robert Tonyan > Logan Thomas camp. I’ve seen these guys ranked very closely and both cited as big 2020 breakouts. I think it is far more likely the Tonyan keeps it up despite his crazy efficiency.

I think Gerald Everett paired with Russell Wilson is a great match. No real prediction here, I just like it. The targets and yardage will be tough to come by with a superb 1-2 punch at WR these days, but he should do well with touchdowns.

Rookie Review: These First Round WRs Are Something Else

This was a highly-anticipated rookie wide receiver class. It was full of both studs at the top and just a deep class overall. This is proven by the fact that six WRs were drafted in Round 1 and 16 in the top 100. Compare that to the two previous years. Two and thirteen in 2019 and two and ten in 2018. Furthermore, this year’s rookies beyond the first round are making an instant impact. Chase Claypool? A 4 TD game and highlights every single game. Even further down, guys that weren’t even highly thought of like Gabriel Davis, Quintez Cephus, and Darnell Mooney have all started and looked decent while doing so.

I wanted to take a dive into all these rookie WRs, and see who looks like a star and who is being forgotten and who is struggling. The plan is to go through every single rookie WR and then give updated rankings. To start, we will look at the six first round WRs in the class of 2020. We will go in order of when they were drafted.

Henry Ruggs III, Raiders, 12th Overall, Drafted WR1

In three games so far, Ruggs has been pretty much exactly what was expected, but even better. An elite speed blazing deep threat. Ruggs made his mark quickly with a Week 1 first quarter 45 yard catch where he went down just shy of the end zone. He then got hurt in Week 2. When he came back in Week 5, he helped the Raiders stun the Chiefs. He had two catches in that game. One for 46 yards which set up an early 3-0 lead, and later a 72-yard touchdown. That makes three catches of 45+ yards on just 11 targets. That has been good for an INSANE 16.1 yards per target and 29.5 yards per catch. He has been the Mike Wallace / Desean Jackson type player we expected but even better. In Mike Wallace’s rookie season he put up a 39-756-6 line with a league-best 19.6 yards per catch and a robust 10.5 yards per target.

Ruggs has an ADOT of 21.5. It is no surprise that the Raiders are 3-0 with him and 0-2 in the games he missed. His speed is unreal and completely changes up the offense. Ruggs hasn’t had the overall production that some of his fellows have had, but to have anything less than a glowing impression of him thus far.

Conclusion: Excellent start, dynamic for the offense. Fantasy-wise they need to prove they can continue the deep ball success rate.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos, 15th Overall, WR2

Jeudy has been “quiet” so far with just one touchdown and no more than 62 yards in a game. I put quiet in quotation marks because on the flip side he has less than 55 yards just once and a solid 8.1 yards per target. Factor in the QB play of three QBs in five games, and at best only one of them is good, and wow. All of a sudden with context, Jeudy’s numbers are really good. Oh yeah, how could I forget that Courtland Sutton only played 31 snaps and suddenly Jeudy was facing CB1s without even having a preseason?

Conclusion: With context, I think Jeudy has done an excellent job. If there is a buy-low WR among the first-round rookies, Jeudy is it. If he gets a franchise QB, whether that is Lock or someone else, he will be a WR2 or better for years to come.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, 17th Overall, WR3

I can keep this one short. Lamb has been nothing short of incredible. Despite the Cowboys already having Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in place, Lamb is on pace for 93-1,386-6 through five games. He has a phenomenal 72.5% catch rate and 10.8 yards per target. He looks like the league’s next superstar. Unfortunately, Dak’s injury is likely to bring him down a level. Long-term the sky is the limit. 

Conclusion: I was impressed with the first two WRs drafted. Lamb is easily better than those two. It’s hard to put into words just how impressive Lamb has been to start his career. Best rookie since OBJ? The league’s next superstar WR.

Jalen Reagor, Eagles, 21st Overall, WR4

FINALLY, a disappointment. This would be the public sentiment on Reagor when compared to his peers. The reality is something different. Reagor had a 55-yard catch in his debut on four targets. In his second game, Carson Wentz was pretty awful. Reagor, however, caught all four of his targets for 41 yards. He then tore a UCL in his thumb which put him on the IR for at least six weeks. To date this has left him with a 5-96-0 line on 8 targets. That is an excellent 12.0 yards per target. It is a very small sample size of course, but with Reagor getting lost in the crowded room of playmaking rookies, we need to realize that thus far, he has shown he is every bit as capable as the rest of them.

Conclusion: Acquire Reagor now, you might not have another window of opportunity when he comes back.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings, 22nd Overall, WR5

If there is a negative for Jefferson, it would be that he has been inconsistent so far. Jefferson most definitely had the least impressive debut of any rookie we’ve covered yet. In a high-scoring Week 1 game, Jefferson managed just 2-23-0 on three targets. Week 2’s numbers didn’t exactly impress, but this is another case of context being needed. Kirk Cousins was horrendous and the Colts absolutely shut down the Vikings offense. Cousins completed just 11 of 26 passes for 113 yards. Considering that, the fact that Jefferson caught all three of his targets for a team-best 44 yards is almost as insane as his week that would follow. When Jefferson caught 7 passes for 175 yards and a score in Week 3, the 175 yards represented 37.8% of his team’s yards. His 44 yards in Week 2 were still over 25% of the Vikings offensive yards and in hindsight, a clear appetizer for what was to come.

Jefferson had another big week in Week 4, going over 100 yards for the second straight week. The Seahawks managed to contain him in Week 5 as Adam Thielen shined. When looking at the total production from this up-and-down five weeks, his 19-371-1 and 14.8 yards per target are incredibly impressive.

Update: This was written before Week 6. Jefferson had another MONSTER game 9-166-2 but both targets he didn’t catch went for interceptions. Perhaps some rookie miscues are a factor, but that won’t stop me from praising Jefferson.

Conclusion: Certainly looks the part as a Stefon Diggs replacement. Catching 76% of passes despite a 12.9 ADOT. It’s hard to put him anywhere but WR2 among the first round.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, 25th Overall, WR6

In Aiyuk we finally have a receiver that is merely meeting the expectations of a first-rounder and not exceeding them to a great degree. Aiyuk missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. With Deebo Samuel also out, Aiyuk immediately stepped in as a starter against the lowly Jets in Week 2. He wasn’t asked to do much and Jimmy Garoppolo also got injured in this game. So his 2-21-0 line on three targets was fine. With another easy matchup in Week 3, Aiyuk had a great game. He had a team-best 70 rec yards and also scored a rushing touchdown. That put him at 101 yards from scrimmage for the day. In Week 4 against the Eagles, he struggled as a receiver but managed yet another rushing touchdown. In Week 5 Jimmy Garoppolo looked lost against the Dolphins and Aiyuk managed to tie Kittle for a team-best 44 rec yards on two fewer targets.

It has been a huge struggle for the 49ers to get healthy. There have been exactly 0 games with a healthy Jimmy G, Mostert, Deebo and Kittle. In Week 3 all four of those offensive playmakers were out and that is when Aiyuk was forced to step up and be the guy and responded with 101 yards and a touchdown, all the while surrounded by backups.

Update: In Week 6 the 49ers were the healthiest we have seen them. Aiyuk was relatively quiet but did get a goal line two-yard touchdown. Even in this quiet game he managed to produce.

Conclusion: The 49ers have faced incredible adversity as a team so far. That is why I can say at worst, Aiyuk has at least met expectations. His 7.0 yards per target is not good, but he has made up for it with some big rushing/lateral pass plays. Anyone passing judgment on the 49ers offense right now is a fool, to be blunt. Week 6 promises to be the first week where everyone is fully healthy. Give them a few more weeks to get running on all cylinders and don’t be surprised if Aiyuk looks even better.

Two Weeks In: Is It A Trend or Is It Small Sample Size?

 Early in the season, it can’t be tough to settle on whether a player’s improvement or decline is for real. Making aggressive moves on these possibilities is risky but can lead to big rewards. Here are some examples of players through two weeks last year, both legitimate and fraudulent.

Lamar Jackson - QB1 - Legit!

Case Keenum - QB6 - Fraud

Austin Ekeler - RB1 - Legit!

Le’Veon Bell with Jets - RB5 - Fraud

John Ross - WR1 - Major fraud
D.J. Chark - WR5 - Legit!

So yeah, you get the point. Let’s take a look at some early surprises and try to find some legitimate early successes.

Keelan Cole Sr.: Relevant WR2 In Jacksonville?

Keelan Cole Sr. has been teetering between fantasy irrelevance and being worthy of a roster spot for the last three years. Last year Cole struggled for playing time but did end up the most efficient receiver on the team with a robust 10.3 yards per target. Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley both received 90+ targets last year as the primary receivers behind D.J. Chark Jr.

Cole started to play more in the second half of 2019 and made his mark over the final three weeks. He totaled 7-166-1 over those three games. In Week 1 he played 66% of snaps while Conley barely played and Dede Westbrook was inactive. That trend continued in Week 2. Cole has been very productive so far, catching 11 of 12 targets with a touchdown in each game.

Of course, there is the exciting rookie looming behind. However, as mentioned above, the Jaguars had three WRs with 90+ targets last year. Laviska Shenault also gets some action in the run game. I think Cole can be had really cheap because people won’t believe this offense can sustain three receivers. They may be right, but for very cheap, you should look into acquiring Keelan Cole Sr.

Chase Claypool: Most Pro-Ready WR?

Last week Chase Claypool made headlines with a jaw-dropping highlight catch. He put up 47 yards on just 19 snaps in a respectable debut. In Week 2, Claypool made the highlight reel again with an 84-yard touchdown, the longest play of the young season. I wrote about Claypool this offseason. My conclusion was this: He is an athletic freak and there just aren’t players at his size with his athleticism. It is basically D.K. Metcalf and Claypool.

Claypool has caught all five of his targets this season. He is quickly moving ahead of James Washington. Diontae and JuJu aren’t going anywhere. On the other hand, the Steelers haven’t been in a game where they fell behind and need to air it out. That could change the next few games. Claypool is currently PFF’s highest-graded WR. Not just out of rookies, overall! It surely won’t be this smooth sailing all the way, but it looks legitimate. If Claypool keeps it up, his snaps are going to increase regardless of who else the Steelers have. He is a mismatch that brings something different.

Josh Allen Has Taken His Game To The Next Level

Well, that is a headline I didn’t think I’d be writing. Josh Allen took a big step forward last year, drastically cutting down on his interceptions. Still, as a passer, it wasn’t enough. Only Dwayne Haskins had a worse completion percentage. The Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs. Allen’s own progression plus the addition of a true star receiver has been huge.

Allen had two fumbles in Week One but looked great in the air. This week he had no turnovers and looked tremendous. His 312 Week 1 passing yards was already his career-high by a comfortable amount. In Week 2 he upped that over 100 yards to 417. Four passing touchdowns were also a new career-best.

Now there is a necessary caveat. The Jets are pretty clearly the worst team in the league. The Dolphins sure are not good. The Bills schedule is a LOT tougher from here on out. That starts with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams next week. Josh Allen has already made it clear he has once again taken a step forward. But he has a lot to prove against likely playoff teams in the weeks ahead.

Five Week One Performances I Believe In

 Gardner Minshew Is the Jags Franchise QB

Minshew had some big downs during his rookie season, but on the whole, it was a surprisingly strong season for the 6th rounder. *As a passer*, he outplayed Kyler Murray. In 2020, the Jaguars are (were?) expected to be one of the worst teams with a shot at Trevor Lawrence next year. Minshew decided otherwise. He had a tremendous Week 1 performance. In 15 games and 13 starts, Minshew has 24 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Before Minshew, the last QB to have 20+ TDs and 6 or fewer interceptions over their first 15 games was Dak Prescott. Prescott was a similar late-round draft pick not expected to be the face of the franchise. I’m liking Minshew’s odds to follow that path.

Julio Jones Will Break the Record for Most Consecutive 1,300 yard seasons

Julio is currently tied with Torry Holt at six straight 1,300 yard seasons for most ever. After leading the league with 157 rec yards in Week 1, Julio is already on a great pace to become the first to ever do it in SEVEN STRAIGHT SEASONS. That means over the next 15 games, Julio needs to average a mere 76 yards per game to hit the 1,300-yard mark. I say he gets it done. Especially in the dynasty community, people are scared away from Julio because of his age. The 31-year-old remains arguably the best all-around WR in the league.

Austin Ekeler Is Still Really Good, but 2020 Might Suck

HOW DO YOU ONLY TARGET AUSTIN EKELER ONCE? In one of the worst pairings of QB and RB, Tyrod Taylor seemingly has no interest throwing to his RBs, even when that RB has been THE BEST receiving back by yards per target of ALL-TIME. It was baffling. Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was the interim OC for half of last season and I don’t think there is any way he game-planned 0 targets to Ekeler. So I am putting this one firmly on Tyrod. The move to Herbert can’t come soon enough.

Cam Newton is BACK, Baby!

Over 16 games from 2018-2019, Cam Newton rushed for just 4 touchdowns with a high of 63 yards in a single game. This was the result of ankle injuries. He ended up missing almost all of 2019 and spent much of the 2020 offseason unsigned. The former MVP finally signed with New England in July and in Week 1 put up a vintage Cam performance with a 15-75-2 rushing line. If he can avoid injuries, Cam might be a league winner.

The Raiders Offense Might Be Really Good

Heading into the 2019 season the Raiders were a laughingstock in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. Many questioned whether the TV duo of Mayock/Gruden had a clue what they were doing. After 10 games they were a surprising 6-4 and in the playoff hunt. It, unfortunately, didn’t last but it was enough to sway my opinion. They were doing good work there. Derek Carr had his best season by ANY/A and QBR. Carr became just the fifth quarterback to finish a season with a completion percentage above 70%. He picked up where he left off in Week 1 completing 22/30 passes (73.3%) without a turnover. This opened up running lanes for Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had his first three-touchdown game and also his best game as a receiver (4-46-0). Henry Ruggs looked great in his debut, adding a new dynamic to the offense. I really wish Tyrell Williams didn’t get hurt because they are missing another reliable veteran, but I think this offense will surprise many in 2020. They aren’t going to put up 40 points but they are going to be very efficient with a low turnover rate.

Five Players and Situations I’ll Be Watching Closely in Week 1

It’s been a wild year but the NFL is still pushing on as best as they can, and that means the fantasy season is in full swing. Will we see a higher rate of rookie struggles? Will COVID outbreaks create unexpected breakout seasons from backups? It is going to be weird. Here are some players and situations that will likely have a big impact on fantasy success this year.

Tyler Higbee

Will the dominant streak to end 2019 keep up? Probably not, but will he remain a key piece of the offense? I really think so. Two things need to happen. Higbee needs to be clearly ahead of Gerald Everett and he needs to be ahead of the WR3. Last year these two things only happened thanks to injuries. But when given the opportunity, Higbee put on a show rarely seen from the TE position. Did he do enough for McVay to change his offense? I’ve been very high on Higbee this offseason. We’ll get answers Sunday night.

Devin Singletary vs Zack Moss

Singletary had a great rookie season splitting time with Frank Gore. He put up 969 yards on only 180 touches. Still, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on Zack Moss. Will it be a true split or more of a 70/30 committee? Both players were discounted in drafts due to the uncertainty so if one player is clearly ahead it will represent a big value to fantasy teams.

The Buccaneers...everything on the offense

This entire offense is intriguing. The battle for WR1 has already seen the edge go to Chris Godwin with Mike Evans doubtful to play Week 1. At Tight End can Gronk return after a year off without missing a beat? Can he stay healthy? It is a pretty safe bet he will be the preferred goal line target as long as he stays on the field. I want to see if he can offer more. At running back, Ronald Jones had a respectful 2019 and cracked 1000 yards from scrimmage. That didn’t stop the Bucs from bringing in a LOT of competition. They drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third and the early thinking was these two would compete for the top role. Vaughn seemed to fall behind with the lack of a full offseason. Then the Bucs signed LeSean McCoy in August. He wasn’t productive in 2019 and couldn’t beat out a mediocre group in Kansas City but some seemed to think he would be the starter. THEN the Bucs signed Leonard Fournette after he got released. Fournette put up over 1,600 yards last year. I think he was a bit underappreciated by the fantasy community. On paper, he should easily slide into the lead role. But it might take a few weeks for him to get acquainted. This is a talented RB group and I don’t think any victory laps should be taken in just one week.

The cherry on top of this powerhouse sundae is of course Tom Brady. 43-year-old Brady is quite a bit removed from what he was even 3 years ago. Can this offense hide the blemishes? How bad could even the worst quarterback be with this offense? We’ll get our first hint of an answer in a matchup of legendary QBs in Brees vs Brady.

The Most Intriguing Rookie is….

The easy, obvious answer is Joe Burrow. I expect him to be good, but I won’t be surprised if he struggles in Week 1 either. Not much intrigue there for me. No, I’m going to give it to Jonathan Taylor. Colts HC Frank Reich has called it a one-one situation (instead of 1-2 or A-B). Marlon Mack will start as the incumbent and has reportedly been a great mentor to Jonathan Taylor. That is nice and all but in terms of talent...Mack is a fine player but Jonathan Taylor can be a game-changer at the position. They will ride the hot hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor starts to chip away at the split percentage within his first few touches. At the very least, I am looking for some signs of explosiveness from Taylor.

Do the Titans Have a Few Superstars in the Making or Was it a Mirage?

The Ryan Tannehill reclamation project was a special thing to watch last year. It took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game where they were no match for the eventual champions. Tannehill threw for an incredible 27 TD and 6 INT in 13 total starts including playoffs. However, he was also sacked a LOT. That is concerning for a quarterback that missed the end of 2017 and all of 2018 with knee injuries. His touchdown percentage is also due to regress.

Despite that, you can’t simply write off 2019 as a fluke. Tannehill had tremendous success throwing deep and he led the league in yards per completion while having a low interception rate. The biggest key to that was the emergence of rookie receiver A.J. Brown. Minimum 75 targets, Browns 12.8 yards per target was the best ever for a rookie and the third-best since 1992 which is as far back as the data goes. That is incredible. The list of rookie receivers to have 10+ yards per target is extremely strong. He is certainly due for regression but also a big uptick in volume.

The week 1 matchup will be a big challenge. Playing in Denver is never the easiest and they have a stout secondary. The Broncos added A.J. Bouye and have two of the top PFF graded safeties from last year. I want to see Tannehill flash more of that MVP potential he showcased last year.