These rankings are the most I have deviated from the norm since I've been doing this early this year. It will be interesting to see how these play out because I feel good about a lot of them. Check em out and start/sit accordingly! Or go with your guy if you feel good enough about it. I don't care really.
- Calvin Johnson
- Dez Bryant
- Brandon Marshall
- Andre Johnson
- Demaryius Thomas
- Wes Welker
- T.Y. Hilton
- Victor Cruz
- A.J. Green
- Keenan Allen
- Torrey Smith
- DeSean Jackson
- Vincent Jackson
- Antonio Brown
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Denarius Moore
- Jordy Nelson
- Eric Decker
- Alshon Jeffery
- Golden Tate
- Terrance Williams
- Cecil Shorts
- Stevie Johnson
- Hakeem Nicks
- Riley Cooper
- Steve Smith
- Harry Douglas
- Anquan Boldin
- Kendall Wright
- Roddy White*
- Ruben Randle
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Michael Floyd
- Mike Wallace
- Lance Moore
- Doug Baldwin
- Marvin Jones
- Marques Colston*
- Jacoby Jones
- Timothy Wright
- James Jones
- Mike Brown
- Vincent Brown
- Chris Givens
- Kenny Stills
- Eddie Royal
- Nate Washington
- Rod Streater
- Marlon Brown
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Darrius Heyward-Bey
- Kris Durham
- Mohamed Sanu
- Brandon LaFell
- Nate Burleson*
- Mario Manningham
- Ted Ginn
- Griff Whalen
- Jarrett Boykin
- Brian Hartline
- Cole Beasley
- Jerricho Cotchery
- Marquise Goodwin
- Tandon Doss
- Austin Pettis
- Jermaine Kearse
- Andre Roberts
- T.J. Graham
- Juron Criner
- DeVier Posey
- Tiquan Underwood
- Tavon Austin
- Justin Hunter
- Darius Johnson
- Brian Quick
- Drew Davis
- Stedman Bailey
- Rishard Matthews
- Kyle Williams
- Jerrel Jernigan
- LaVon Brazill
- Brice Butler
- Andrew Hawkins
#4 Andre Johnson - (#12 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Sure, call this an overreaction to last week if you want. This is a guy who hadn't got into the endzone at all before the game against the Colts. On the other hand, he has a quarterback that is willing to take risks to get the ball to him. Even if that doesn't work out, It seems like Keenum has a ton of confidence and I believe in his ability to get Andre the ball.
#7 T.Y. Hilton - (#13 on Fantasy Pros)
Again call me crazy and tell me I am overreacting. You can make a better case here as Hilton is pretty inconsistent. Elite speed, he can burn any team at any time. He won't catch every ball, but without Wayne I am of the belief that he will get enough targets to make something big happen every game.
#9 A.J. Green - (#3 on Fantasy Pros)
This is reflective of my stubborn view that Andy Dalton is not that good. They face Baltimore which is usually a good defense setting aside Week 1. And usually when Dalton struggles, Green suffers. As a wide receiver there is only so much you can do in a situation like that.
#11 Torrey Smith - (#20 on Fantasy Pros)
Opposite AJ Green is fellow #1 WR Torrey Smith. A lot of people have soured on him lately reflected in the consensus ranking. It wasn't so long ago that Smith had 166 and 121 yards in back to back games. In fact, through the first 5 games he was averaging 111 yards a game. And it isn't like defenses were ignoring him, he was already a #1 WR with a decent reputation. That talent is there and the yards will be coming back sooner than later.
#12 Pierre Garcon - (#7 on Fantasy Pros)
Funny enough I was (correctly) high on Garcon last week. This week, its a Thursday game which of course are generally sloppy. I am expecting a decent not great game. I think the smart play is for the Redskins to try and get the lead early and then ground n' pound the rest of the game.
#16 Antonio Brown - (#11 on Fantasy Pros)
This ranking feels weird because the Bills are awful against wide receivers. So what is my thinking? I'm not even sure. There are just a ton of great options this week and Brown is more of a possession guy than a big play guy. I'd rather go with a deep threat like DeSean Jackson or Torrey Smith. PPR he is still a top 10 stud.
Deeper thoughts...It seems like I am always high on Denarius Moore. He and Pryor get work done, this week against the Giants should be pretty awesome. Cecil Shorts will be facing a tough Titans secondary, but with 15-20 targets he should get his numbers. I think Anquan Boldin may end up as a good start in the fantasy playoffs now that Manningham is back and so will Crabtree (hopefully). But not yet. I think Lance Moore is the best option in New Orleans, but that offense besides Jimmy Graham is just a ton of guesswork. Its part of the reason they do so well, but frustrating for prognosticators! As you can see, I have no interest in James Jones this week. Start him at your own risk. I am a big fan of the Riley Cooper Nick Foles connection. Small sample, but if it holds that is some great value. Solid Flex option this week.
This article was inspired by my realization of how some teams & defenders absolutely shut down premier opposing Wide Receivers. In particular, my studying of the Steelers and the Browns revealed this. I feel like Joe Haden has gotten plenty of credit, but Ike Taylor and William Gay, the CBs for the Steelers have not. The Steelers still have a reputation for a great defense but most people don't realize that if you have a stud receiver playing them, you should be concerned. I will highlight the teams best at shutting down top receivers below:
Pittsburgh Steelers:
CBs: Ike Taylor, William Gay
Notable WRs: AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore
Stats (of the above WRs): 46.5 yards per game, 0 TDs.
Wow, the numbers say it all. Two of those guys are in the top 5 WRs in the game, and the other two are very good. Not a single one of them has had more than 61 yards in a single game. That is a major credit to both CBs, as well as the safeties, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu. However, the Steelers are one of the oldest secondaries. These younger WRs might be able to burn them later in the year. This team faces a ton of premier receivers in the second half. It will be fun to see how they fair.
Future top opponents: AJ green, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson.
Cleveland Browns:
CBs: Joe Haden, Buster Skrine
Notable WRs: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Torrey Smith, Jordy Nelson (Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson)
Stats: 50.75 Yards per game, 1 TD. (39.5 yards per game, with Wallace & Stevie)
This number is slightly inflated by Torrey Smith's 85 yard performance. You could also argue that Calvin Johnson wasn't fully healthy, but based on past history, Megatron is capable of amazing performances no matter what health he is at. The Browns are slightly worse than the Steelers because Buster Skrine is a lot worse than William Gay as a CB2. The one touchdown was on a very nice play at the goal line from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson, so its not like the Browns were burned for a big play either.
Future top opponents: AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Justin Blackmon, Brandon Marshall
Carolina Panthers:
CBs: Captain Munnerlyn, Melvin White, Josh Thomas
Notable WRs: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson
Stats: 64.5 yards per game, 1 TD (49 yards 0 TDs, if you exclude Stevie Johnson)
This one surprised me for sure. The Panthers have an excellent pass rush which certainly helps, but they have been very effective. They shut down Vincent Jackson after two really big games. It should be noted that all of the top WRs that have faced the Panthers have had issues at QB, whether it be the struggles of Eli, or Carson Palmer's ineptitude. It should also be noted that the top WRs they face going forward are not nearly as tough as the AFC North teams. I would definitely be cautious with Harry Douglas and Roddy White next week, and their schedule isn't too bad in terms of elite WRs going forward.
Future top opponents: Harry Douglas/Roddy White (?), Mike Wallace, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson.
New England Patriots with Aqib Talib:
CBs: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington
Notable WRs: Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green
Stats: 60.5 yards per game, 1 TD
Aqib Talib has started to get the respect he deserves, he is truly a shutdown corner. Perhaps the most telling stat about Talib (Courtesy of Pro Football Focus): Against the Falcons Julio Jones had 108 yards. When Talib was in coverage against them, Jones & White had 7 targets with no catches. Jones against other defenders had 6 catches on 9 targets for those 108 yards. That says it all.
Future top opponents: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Torrey Smith
Tennessee Titans:
CBs: Jason McCourty, Alterraun Verner
Notable opponents: Antonio Brown, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin
Stats: 64 yards per game, 0 TDs
The Titans secondary success has been fueled by the emergence of Alterraun Verner. Its worth noting that Verner and McCourty have the 2nd and 3rd highest grades on PFF. Verner leads the league with the lowest % of targets against him being caught (36.4%). This is in part due to the fact that he is not always covering the best WR even though he is good enough to do so.
Future top opponents: Justin Blackmon, Denarius Moore, Broncos, Larry Fitz.
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So there you have it. Obviously you are still starting your studs every week, but your expectations should be lowered. It makes the non elite WR1s like Larry Fitzgerald, Denarius Moore, and Justin Blackmon WR2s at best, with lesser WR1's such as Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace, and Steve Smith, these guys become virtually unplayable. This research isn't definitive, but its a nice additional point to consider, especially when you look at Torrey Smith, who faces three of the teams above.
