Oct 29, 2013

Shutdown Corners: What to expect for your #1 Wide Receiver!

This article was inspired by my realization of how some teams & defenders absolutely shut down premier opposing Wide Receivers. In particular, my studying of the Steelers and the Browns revealed this. I feel like Joe Haden has gotten plenty of credit, but Ike Taylor and William Gay, the CBs for the Steelers have not. The Steelers still have a reputation for a great defense but most people don't realize that if you have a stud receiver playing them, you should be concerned. I will highlight the teams best at shutting down top receivers below:

Pittsburgh Steelers
CBs: Ike Taylor, William Gay
Notable WRs: AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore
Stats (of the above WRs): 46.5 yards per game, 0 TDs.

Wow, the numbers say it all. Two of those guys are in the top 5 WRs in the game, and the other two are very good. Not a single one of them has had more than 61 yards in a single game. That is a major credit to both CBs, as well as the safeties, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu. However, the Steelers are one of the oldest secondaries. These younger WRs might be able to burn them later in the year. This team faces a ton of premier receivers in the second half. It will be fun to see how they fair.

Future top opponents: AJ green, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson.

Cleveland Browns:
CBs: Joe Haden, Buster Skrine
Notable WRs: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Torrey Smith, Jordy Nelson (Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson)
Stats: 50.75 Yards per game, 1 TD. (39.5 yards per game, with Wallace & Stevie)

This number is slightly inflated by Torrey Smith's 85 yard performance. You could also argue that Calvin Johnson wasn't fully healthy, but based on past history, Megatron is capable of amazing performances no matter what health he is at. The Browns are slightly worse than the Steelers because Buster Skrine is a lot worse than William Gay as a CB2. The one touchdown was on a very nice play at the goal line from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson, so its not like the Browns were burned for a big play either.

Future top opponents: AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Justin Blackmon, Brandon Marshall


Carolina Panthers:
CBs: Captain Munnerlyn, Melvin White, Josh Thomas
Notable WRs: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson
Stats: 64.5 yards per game, 1 TD (49 yards 0 TDs, if you exclude Stevie Johnson)

This one surprised me for sure. The Panthers have an excellent pass rush which certainly helps, but they have been very effective. They shut down Vincent Jackson after two really big games. It should be noted that all of the top WRs that have faced the Panthers have had issues at QB, whether it be the struggles of Eli, or Carson Palmer's ineptitude. It should also be noted that the top WRs they face going forward are not nearly as tough as the AFC North teams. I would definitely be cautious with Harry Douglas and Roddy White next week, and their schedule isn't too bad in terms of elite WRs going forward.

Future top opponents: Harry Douglas/Roddy White (?), Mike Wallace, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson.

New England Patriots with Aqib Talib:
CBs: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington
Notable WRs: Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green
Stats: 60.5 yards per game, 1 TD

Aqib Talib has started to get the respect he deserves, he is truly a shutdown corner. Perhaps the most telling stat about Talib (Courtesy of Pro Football Focus): Against the Falcons Julio Jones had 108 yards. When Talib was in coverage against them, Jones & White had 7 targets with no catches. Jones against other defenders had 6 catches on 9 targets for those 108 yards. That says it all.

Future top opponents: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Torrey Smith

Tennessee Titans:
CBs: Jason McCourty, Alterraun Verner
Notable opponents: Antonio Brown, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin
Stats: 64 yards per game, 0 TDs

The Titans secondary success has been fueled by the emergence of Alterraun Verner. Its worth noting that Verner and McCourty have the 2nd and 3rd highest grades on PFF. Verner leads the league with the lowest % of targets against him being caught (36.4%). This is in part due to the fact that he is not always covering the best WR even though he is good enough to do so.

Future top opponents: Justin Blackmon, Denarius Moore, Broncos, Larry Fitz.

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So there you have it. Obviously you are still starting your studs every week, but your expectations should be lowered. It makes the non elite WR1s like Larry Fitzgerald, Denarius Moore, and Justin Blackmon WR2s at best, with lesser WR1's such as Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace, and Steve Smith, these guys become virtually unplayable. This research isn't definitive, but its a nice additional point to consider, especially when you look at Torrey Smith, who faces three of the teams above.

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