Oct 8, 2013

Trade Talk Part 2: Buy low Candidates

Buy Low on....

Robert Griffin III
Did you know RGIII is currently averaging the 12th most points per game at QB? Small sample size, but there is almost a zero % chance his point total gets worse and a great chance it gets better. A good chance it gets a lot better. Likely his owner is very disappointed, which is the perfect time to swoop in and make an offer. This comes with a warning, he IS injury prone. Buyer beware.

Guys averaging more points a game I would give up for RGIII: Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford Andrew Luck, and Jay Cutler. And also Cam Newton, who is currently averaging less points a game, but I think an owner might take him anyway.

C.J. Spiller - Currently 29th in average points scored at RB
Did you know that Fred Jackson, in addition to missing 6 games in each of the past two years, is the oldest relevant running back in fantasy football? I'm pretty sure he's actually the oldest running back, but I don't care enough to do that research, I'm just making a point. He is older than Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, and Ronnie Brown!? Even if you like Fred Jackson more, there is a good chance Spiller gets to become the sole back in Buffalo at some point this year. Do you know how many games Spiller had a run or catch of 30+ yards last season? 8 games. Half the season. More often than not those turn into touchdowns. Last week, he ran for a 54 yard touchdown on a bad ankle! If you can get him for less than 3rd round value, you should.

Lamar Miller
Lamar Miller owners (myself included) are extremely frustrated by two completely terrible games. Sandwiched in between those two games are two very decent games and another performance with 62 yards on just 8 carries. The frustrating part is how the Dolphins tend to be quick to move away from the run game. Long term I think that does not hold and we will see more of the 60 yards and a TD then 15 yard games.

Guys I would give up for Miller: Think you could get him for Ryan Mathews? Pierre Thomas coming off his big game? I would do it for DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead (non-ppr), Bilal Powell and Joique Bell (has well outscored Miller to this point). Willis McGahee, MJD, and Stevan Ridley (Those last two whom I am totally out on).

AJ Green - 13th in scoring for WRs
And that ranking is inflated by his giant week 1 game. His best game since then is 46 yards and a TD. This is of course the result of teams focusing on defensively, and the Bengals not having a good enough QB to make things happen anyway. However, this is the same Andy Dalton that got him 1350 yards and 11 TDs last year. At some point those numbers will return, and this coming week against Buffalo would be a great opportunity for that.

Guys I would be offering in return for Green: Desean Jackson, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson. I wrote yesterday in my sell high that if you have Wes Welker you could probably get AJ Green and something else. Beyond these guys listed, I would be willing to package two lesser, but still very good players for Green.

Marques Colston - 35th in scoring for WRs
Where did Colston finish the past two years on total scoring for WRs? 11th in 2012, 12th in 2011. He is one of the most consistent players at the position, and has a great QB. What that means is that at the end of the day, he's going to be right where he's always been: 1000+ yards and 8+ TDs.

Guys I would give up to get Colston: Andre Johnson (yes really), James Jones, Larry Fitz (situation looks so bad), Cecil Shorts, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin.

Percy Harvin - Injured, has not played yet.
PLEASE READ: This one is more for people who are off to a good start with room for a guy who won't play. If you are struggling, this is NOT the target for you because you need someone who can come in and perform now. This guy is actually not owned in most leagues at this point. He could be back as early as week 8. For a guy this talented, the time to act is now. I've actually had him stashed on my bench since week 1 in a 16 team league. Normally I stay away from guys coming off big injuries. Harvin is an exception because of talent and the situation he falls into. He instantly becomes the #1 receiver on a team with a great RB and a good but not great WRs around him. He might start off slow, but after a couple games he will be a regular starter. If you can afford a short-term hit in depth, you might be able to get him for an RB4 or WR4 if he's even owned.

That is part two. I'd love to hear you what you thought of this 2-part trade series, and what you'd like an in-depth article on in the future. Expect to see my RB rankings up tomorrow. Let me know what you think in a comment or on Twitter @Lopsided Trades

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