Week 9 was a weird week where I felt like I did really well with my rankings, but their were a few guys ranked low who had monster games. Of course Nick Foles highlights this category. We also had a Tom Brady magical return to prominence and veteran WR Jerricho Cotchery with three touchdowns. Lets go position by position and break it down.
Quarterbacks:
Obviously we are starting with Nick Foles (45) who had the second highest point total of the year for a QB. I'm not going to go crazy and say he is elite, the Raiders are not a great defense. But they aren't horrible. He should be owned in all leagues. He is owned in 23% of Yahoo! leagues and 10% of ESPN leagues. If you are someone who drafted Matt Ryan (6), Nick Foles would be a great second option. Speaking of Ryan, he struggled against a tough defense. I should have expected this, but I've been a big believer in Ryan. Going forward expectations will be lowered. The 2nd and 3rd highest QBs played against each other, Tom Brady (33) and Ben Roethlisberger (26). Both needed a good game. This doesnt instantly bring Brady back to elite level, but he is certainly a good fantasy option. I don't think he is a sell high. I only had Russell Wilson (21) as my 8th best QB. I deserve a break on this one, I never thought they would be down 3 scores early. He has some nice matchups coming up. Terrelle Pryor (16) didn't throw a TD pass, but came away with 94 rushing yards. Great performance for a backup QB in a good bye week. He is only startable in good matchups. I thought Robert Griffin III (10) played well, but it obviously didn't translate to fantasy points as they had 4 rushing touchdowns. I've been continuously optimistic on him, I still think he is a top 10 QB. If you banked on Alex Smith (4) as your bye week QB this week, you were sorely disappointed. I really like him, but I can't see myself ranking him as a top 15 play again this year, even against Denver...eh maybe I will. But He just doesn't do that much. The final game of the day gave us a big performance by Case Keenum (28) I'm not seeing him as a great play going forward, but Ir really like this guy. He makes some aggressive throws and is good at running around until he finds the open man. He could be a good play in some matchups.
Running Backs:
The week's leader so far is...Chris Johnson (29)! I'm sure everyone expected that right? Im pretty proud of my ranking of him in the top 10, not many people were willing to do that. This is even with Shonn Greene getting a goal line TD. Not a sell high, a lot of favorable matchups. He will still be frustrating though, so if you can't handle that, trade him away. Bad ankle and all, Zac Stacy (29) also came in with the top points. I was worried about the ankle, but Stacy has proved to me he is a must start every week. Does anyone still doubt Adrian Peterson (23)? No? Okay good. Moving on. Stevan Ridley (21) fumbled and still got to play. I have to imagine that is a big statement but the very strict Bill Belichick. My love for C.J. Spiller (14) paid off! Unfortunately he tweaked his ankle twice and has two tough defenses the next couple of weeks and then a bye. I'm cautious, but after the bye he should be fantastic for the end of the regular season and playoffs. Chris Ivory (19) dominated his former team. I think he has to be the official #1 for the Jets now. Not a great option, but a pretty solid RB2 going forward. Mike James (19) might be the biggest surprise. Definitely did not expect this. Steven Jackson (6) looked pretty good against a very tough defense. I think I'm buying low if I can. A very low price ideally, I'm sure most of his owners are pretty frustrated. Jonathan Stewart (6) also looked solid. DeAngelo Williams (5) is still the #1, but this probably renders both useless. Mike Tolbert (9) will still be the goal line guy, so he might end up being the best option. 6 touchdowns this season. I don't chase touchdowns and he doesn't get enough yards for me (37), but if you are feeling lucky, he's your guy. DeMarco Murray (4) hardly ran the ball but he wasn't hurt. He didn't look bad either, just bad playcalling. I am officially done with Ray Rice (3), I have him on one team and I'm not dropping him, but he will be riding my bench. No faith in him whatsoever. Also really questioning whether Darren Sproles (1) can be started at all. Today was injury related, but he left anyway. I cautioned people against starting Arian Foster (0) without knowing his status. It turns out he started, but almost immediately left with a new injury. Long-term we don't know his health, but I'm not worried if he is playing.
Wide Receivers:
Earlier this week, I tweeted about how Andre Johnson (40) was a good buy low because the touchdowns will come. Well, they came. Needless to say, highly doubt Andre Johnson can be had at a good price anymore. He's a stud. Second in scoring for the day was Riley Cooper (32). In Nick Foles three games where he played the majority of snaps, Cooper's worst game is 6 catches for 88 yards. He is a must own as it certainly looks like Foles has guaranteed himself the starting job. T.Y. Hilton was a disappointment for most of the game, but came on very strong late. His first touchdown didn't come until the end of the third quarter. That was a bit of a concern for me, but he is the clear #1 for this team. Aaron Dobson (25) has completely overtaken Kenbrell Thompkins (who was surprisingly inactive) in the passing game. Beyond that he has also become somewhat reliable. He's still available in a ton of leagues and should be the #1 waiver pickup this week. Finally! Another big game for Pierre Garcon (17). I was starting to get worried. Even with RG3's so-so day fantasy wise, Garcon put up big numbers. Good matchups in 3 of the next 4 games. Harry Douglas (8) had his worst game to date since stepping in to the starting role. Of course Carolina was one of the teams I highlighted as a team that shuts down #1 WRs, so this was still a decent game for Douglas. I kind of like him even with the impending return of Roddy White. Similarly, Denarius Moore (8) didn't find the endzone, but had 5 catches for 82 yards. I'm still very high on him. Steve Smith (5) continues to see a ton of targets without doing anything with them. Its time to move on from the idea that he is an elite WR1, or even close to that. Josh Gordon (5) had a disappointing day, as all the catches went to Davone Bess and Greg Little. Raise your hand if you saw that coming....no one, alright. Its not going to happen every week. Gordon is on bye next week and I will be high on him coming back from that. In Dallas, both Dez Bryant (6) and Terrance Williams (3) disappointed. Still like both a lot next week against the Saints. Darrius Heyward-Bey (1) was a big disappointment. Probably not even flex-worthy going forward.
Tight Ends:
Absolutely no surprise at the top, with Jimmy Graham (23) and Rob Gronkowski (20). These guys are must starts every single week. After that a few more studs in Jason Witten (16) & Tony Gonzalez (14). Witten continues to be a beast at home. Gonzalez is really hard to predict because you don't know how he will handle the extra defensive attention. Timothy Wright (11) had his second straight week with a touchdown. He has become pretty reliable. Zach Ertz (10) finally had a touchdown! So did Brent Celek (8) and everyone on the Eagles. Celek got the first TD, but Ertz ended up with more yards and targets. I'm hoping this is just the beginning for Ertz, but he isn't getting enough to targets to be reliable. Kyle Rudolph (9) had only two catches, but he got his TD. I hate him as a fantasy player because he does almost nothing without the TD. Antonio Gates (5) continues to be nice in PPR formats, but pretty weak otherwise. Still, you have to be high on him for next week's matchup against the Broncos. Jordan Reed (4) came back to Earth this week. He just wasn't looked at too much. If anyone is worried that he had a brief moment of fame, get him for what you can. Definitely in my top 10 for the rest of season. The most disappointing TE was Jordan Cameron (4 yards). These games will happen in the Browns offense. He's still a great red zone target. He can probably be bought for a low price from some owners.
That's a wrap for week 9's Sunday games. As always tons of surprises. We wouldn't play if we knew exactly what was going to happen, and that's what I love about it!
assuming both healthy, dobson or amendola rest of season? dobson played 90% of snaps last week vs amendola at ~60%. dobson got that 6'3" 4.40 randy moss role down. coincidentally, both marshall products via w.Va, which makes for a nice narrative.
ReplyDeletei suppose this would've fit in WR rankings better.. oh well... found your stuff through an evan silva rt, seemed decent, keep up the good work.
DeleteAppreciate the kind words! Assuming both are healthy, its Amendola without question. He doesn't play as many snaps because he is usually playing in the slot, not as often used on the outside. But when he is in, he is still the best WR in terms of route running, catch ability and experience.
DeleteHOWEVER - he is obviously a major health concern. I have Amendola slightly higher, but you could make the case for either. Another good game by Dobson and I could change my mind. But if both are healthy, Its Danny.
yea, makes sense. i was crazy high on amendola, but i also believe injuries are random, unless it's a specific recurring body part or heavy workload (arian foster was "do not draft until 3rd round for me"). however, amendola has somehow managed to hurt every possible body part multiple times throughout his career.
ReplyDeletemy amendola/dobson for jordy? he's like, 1 game out of the 5-way tie for last playoff spot and starting jordy and nate washington. i'm leading in points thanks to calvin's ridiculous 2 games ahead of the 5-way tie for the last playoff spot, so reasonably confident i make playoffs. Amendola my 4th receiver behind keenan.
Yeah, I always make an effort to not anticipate injuries, with the exception if some special cases. Amendola has become one of those, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteAs for the trade I would do that. With you being reasonably confident you will make the playoffs, you want to start preparing the best possible lineup for yourself. Assuming Rodgers does return in 4-5 weeks, Nelson will immediately be a huge boost. Even now, he is still an average WR2 which is probably better than either patriot.