Zach’s quick thoughts before the start of the season!

 

We made it through another pandemic offseason and this time around the NFL and fantasy players are more prepared. We’ve got an extra game and extra week. Week 17 is going to be important and that will feel weird! I wanted to jot down some thoughts for the season just to have some of my beliefs for the season ahead recorded. Here they are:

Even in 2QB leagues, it won’t be too hard to find QBs on the waiver.

In 2018, 68 QBs saw the field and 52 scored at least 5 points. 5 points is my “Okay, if I’m in a real tight pinch, at least I am getting SOMETHING here”. Note this is 2QB, the bar would be a little higher in superflex but you are still better off taking a chance on a QB and possibly getting 10 points than whatever W/R/T you would have put in. Continuing on, in 2019 74 QBs played and 58 scored at least 5 points. In 2020 we had COVID issues and things got weird. EIGHTY-FOUR QBs played and 64 scored at least 5 points! Even if we exclude Week 17 you still have guys like Jeff Driskel, Ryan Finley, Garrett Gilbert, and even Colt McCoy managed a start. We are in strange times and it is easier than ever to find QBs off the wire in your start-2 leagues. So don’t fret and overpay for someone like Andy Dalton. There is a good chance in any given week you can find a guy on the wire. 

The same goes for very deep leagues. I am in a 20 team 1QB league with 40 QBs rostered. Everyone is fretting about having a bye week plan or two options. I am the only team with one QB and I took Josh Allen. Obviously I don’t need to worry about a backup option unless he gets hurt in which case I am screwed anyway. I just need a bye week fill in for Week 7 and I am betting I can get it.

Position by position, thoughts, predictions and even some bold predictions:

Ben Roethlisberger will be quite bad this year and finish outside the 20 and even possibly get benched for performance.

Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz are two guys outside of FantasyPros top 20 draft rankings that finish in the top 15. Daniel Jones in particular surprises people by being pretty good with a healthy and talented offense around him.

Zach Wilson finishes first among rookie QBs.

RB thoughts:

Jonathan Taylor, drafted in the mid-late 1st as the 7th-9th RB off the board usually, finishes as a top 3 RB with a good shot at RB1.

James Robinson puts up another top-twelve season and establishes himself as the RB1 even when Travis Etienne returns in 2022.

Mike Davis (RB24 FantasyPros) finishes top 15.

Darrell Henderson and Gus Edwards - the guys that benefited from injury - both finish outside the top 24.

Javonte Williams is a top 15 RB in the second half.

James Conner outscores Chase Edmonds.

Gio Bernard is a solid flex play with Tom Brady. He gets at least 50 receptions, which he hasn't hit since 2017 and only twice in his career.

WR Thoughts:

I REALLY like Terrace Marshall, but the QB play and two good WRs ahead of him will likely keep him from having a big rookie season. Still, he is one to watch in dynasty that I just had to mention. If I wrote an article about a rookie this year, it would have been him. (Chase Claypool last year)

AJ Brown has his best season yet despite Julio taking a lot of targets.

No Tampa receiver finishes top 15.

Corey Davis finishes top 20 with 150+ targets.

DJ Chark (WR40) is a top 24 receiver.

Michael Thomas comes back huge in the second half and is a top 5 WR from Week 10 on, reestablishing his value.

Jakobi Meyers, Henry Ruggs and Mecole Hardman are all ranked outside the top 50 but finish top 40. Jakobi is top 30.

Tyrell Williams (WR72) finishes top 36 as the target hog WR1 in Detroit.

If I’m looking to highlight a guy outside the top 100 WRs, it would be Quez Watkins in Philly. He played a large role in Travis Fulgham not making the 53. He’s got blazing speed and had some big numbers at Southern Miss. He is one to watch for sure.

TE:

I just can’t get behind Kyle Pitts doing anything exceptional in year 1. I’m predicting something like 550 yards and 6 TDs which would be great for a rookie TE but far below what seems to be the expectation.

I am firmly in the Robert Tonyan > Logan Thomas camp. I’ve seen these guys ranked very closely and both cited as big 2020 breakouts. I think it is far more likely the Tonyan keeps it up despite his crazy efficiency.

I think Gerald Everett paired with Russell Wilson is a great match. No real prediction here, I just like it. The targets and yardage will be tough to come by with a superb 1-2 punch at WR these days, but he should do well with touchdowns.

Rookie Review: These First Round WRs Are Something Else

This was a highly-anticipated rookie wide receiver class. It was full of both studs at the top and just a deep class overall. This is proven by the fact that six WRs were drafted in Round 1 and 16 in the top 100. Compare that to the two previous years. Two and thirteen in 2019 and two and ten in 2018. Furthermore, this year’s rookies beyond the first round are making an instant impact. Chase Claypool? A 4 TD game and highlights every single game. Even further down, guys that weren’t even highly thought of like Gabriel Davis, Quintez Cephus, and Darnell Mooney have all started and looked decent while doing so.

I wanted to take a dive into all these rookie WRs, and see who looks like a star and who is being forgotten and who is struggling. The plan is to go through every single rookie WR and then give updated rankings. To start, we will look at the six first round WRs in the class of 2020. We will go in order of when they were drafted.

Henry Ruggs III, Raiders, 12th Overall, Drafted WR1

In three games so far, Ruggs has been pretty much exactly what was expected, but even better. An elite speed blazing deep threat. Ruggs made his mark quickly with a Week 1 first quarter 45 yard catch where he went down just shy of the end zone. He then got hurt in Week 2. When he came back in Week 5, he helped the Raiders stun the Chiefs. He had two catches in that game. One for 46 yards which set up an early 3-0 lead, and later a 72-yard touchdown. That makes three catches of 45+ yards on just 11 targets. That has been good for an INSANE 16.1 yards per target and 29.5 yards per catch. He has been the Mike Wallace / Desean Jackson type player we expected but even better. In Mike Wallace’s rookie season he put up a 39-756-6 line with a league-best 19.6 yards per catch and a robust 10.5 yards per target.

Ruggs has an ADOT of 21.5. It is no surprise that the Raiders are 3-0 with him and 0-2 in the games he missed. His speed is unreal and completely changes up the offense. Ruggs hasn’t had the overall production that some of his fellows have had, but to have anything less than a glowing impression of him thus far.

Conclusion: Excellent start, dynamic for the offense. Fantasy-wise they need to prove they can continue the deep ball success rate.

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos, 15th Overall, WR2

Jeudy has been “quiet” so far with just one touchdown and no more than 62 yards in a game. I put quiet in quotation marks because on the flip side he has less than 55 yards just once and a solid 8.1 yards per target. Factor in the QB play of three QBs in five games, and at best only one of them is good, and wow. All of a sudden with context, Jeudy’s numbers are really good. Oh yeah, how could I forget that Courtland Sutton only played 31 snaps and suddenly Jeudy was facing CB1s without even having a preseason?

Conclusion: With context, I think Jeudy has done an excellent job. If there is a buy-low WR among the first-round rookies, Jeudy is it. If he gets a franchise QB, whether that is Lock or someone else, he will be a WR2 or better for years to come.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, 17th Overall, WR3

I can keep this one short. Lamb has been nothing short of incredible. Despite the Cowboys already having Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in place, Lamb is on pace for 93-1,386-6 through five games. He has a phenomenal 72.5% catch rate and 10.8 yards per target. He looks like the league’s next superstar. Unfortunately, Dak’s injury is likely to bring him down a level. Long-term the sky is the limit. 

Conclusion: I was impressed with the first two WRs drafted. Lamb is easily better than those two. It’s hard to put into words just how impressive Lamb has been to start his career. Best rookie since OBJ? The league’s next superstar WR.

Jalen Reagor, Eagles, 21st Overall, WR4

FINALLY, a disappointment. This would be the public sentiment on Reagor when compared to his peers. The reality is something different. Reagor had a 55-yard catch in his debut on four targets. In his second game, Carson Wentz was pretty awful. Reagor, however, caught all four of his targets for 41 yards. He then tore a UCL in his thumb which put him on the IR for at least six weeks. To date this has left him with a 5-96-0 line on 8 targets. That is an excellent 12.0 yards per target. It is a very small sample size of course, but with Reagor getting lost in the crowded room of playmaking rookies, we need to realize that thus far, he has shown he is every bit as capable as the rest of them.

Conclusion: Acquire Reagor now, you might not have another window of opportunity when he comes back.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings, 22nd Overall, WR5

If there is a negative for Jefferson, it would be that he has been inconsistent so far. Jefferson most definitely had the least impressive debut of any rookie we’ve covered yet. In a high-scoring Week 1 game, Jefferson managed just 2-23-0 on three targets. Week 2’s numbers didn’t exactly impress, but this is another case of context being needed. Kirk Cousins was horrendous and the Colts absolutely shut down the Vikings offense. Cousins completed just 11 of 26 passes for 113 yards. Considering that, the fact that Jefferson caught all three of his targets for a team-best 44 yards is almost as insane as his week that would follow. When Jefferson caught 7 passes for 175 yards and a score in Week 3, the 175 yards represented 37.8% of his team’s yards. His 44 yards in Week 2 were still over 25% of the Vikings offensive yards and in hindsight, a clear appetizer for what was to come.

Jefferson had another big week in Week 4, going over 100 yards for the second straight week. The Seahawks managed to contain him in Week 5 as Adam Thielen shined. When looking at the total production from this up-and-down five weeks, his 19-371-1 and 14.8 yards per target are incredibly impressive.

Update: This was written before Week 6. Jefferson had another MONSTER game 9-166-2 but both targets he didn’t catch went for interceptions. Perhaps some rookie miscues are a factor, but that won’t stop me from praising Jefferson.

Conclusion: Certainly looks the part as a Stefon Diggs replacement. Catching 76% of passes despite a 12.9 ADOT. It’s hard to put him anywhere but WR2 among the first round.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, 25th Overall, WR6

In Aiyuk we finally have a receiver that is merely meeting the expectations of a first-rounder and not exceeding them to a great degree. Aiyuk missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. With Deebo Samuel also out, Aiyuk immediately stepped in as a starter against the lowly Jets in Week 2. He wasn’t asked to do much and Jimmy Garoppolo also got injured in this game. So his 2-21-0 line on three targets was fine. With another easy matchup in Week 3, Aiyuk had a great game. He had a team-best 70 rec yards and also scored a rushing touchdown. That put him at 101 yards from scrimmage for the day. In Week 4 against the Eagles, he struggled as a receiver but managed yet another rushing touchdown. In Week 5 Jimmy Garoppolo looked lost against the Dolphins and Aiyuk managed to tie Kittle for a team-best 44 rec yards on two fewer targets.

It has been a huge struggle for the 49ers to get healthy. There have been exactly 0 games with a healthy Jimmy G, Mostert, Deebo and Kittle. In Week 3 all four of those offensive playmakers were out and that is when Aiyuk was forced to step up and be the guy and responded with 101 yards and a touchdown, all the while surrounded by backups.

Update: In Week 6 the 49ers were the healthiest we have seen them. Aiyuk was relatively quiet but did get a goal line two-yard touchdown. Even in this quiet game he managed to produce.

Conclusion: The 49ers have faced incredible adversity as a team so far. That is why I can say at worst, Aiyuk has at least met expectations. His 7.0 yards per target is not good, but he has made up for it with some big rushing/lateral pass plays. Anyone passing judgment on the 49ers offense right now is a fool, to be blunt. Week 6 promises to be the first week where everyone is fully healthy. Give them a few more weeks to get running on all cylinders and don’t be surprised if Aiyuk looks even better.

Two Weeks In: Is It A Trend or Is It Small Sample Size?

 Early in the season, it can’t be tough to settle on whether a player’s improvement or decline is for real. Making aggressive moves on these possibilities is risky but can lead to big rewards. Here are some examples of players through two weeks last year, both legitimate and fraudulent.

Lamar Jackson - QB1 - Legit!

Case Keenum - QB6 - Fraud

Austin Ekeler - RB1 - Legit!

Le’Veon Bell with Jets - RB5 - Fraud

John Ross - WR1 - Major fraud
D.J. Chark - WR5 - Legit!

So yeah, you get the point. Let’s take a look at some early surprises and try to find some legitimate early successes.

Keelan Cole Sr.: Relevant WR2 In Jacksonville?

Keelan Cole Sr. has been teetering between fantasy irrelevance and being worthy of a roster spot for the last three years. Last year Cole struggled for playing time but did end up the most efficient receiver on the team with a robust 10.3 yards per target. Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley both received 90+ targets last year as the primary receivers behind D.J. Chark Jr.

Cole started to play more in the second half of 2019 and made his mark over the final three weeks. He totaled 7-166-1 over those three games. In Week 1 he played 66% of snaps while Conley barely played and Dede Westbrook was inactive. That trend continued in Week 2. Cole has been very productive so far, catching 11 of 12 targets with a touchdown in each game.

Of course, there is the exciting rookie looming behind. However, as mentioned above, the Jaguars had three WRs with 90+ targets last year. Laviska Shenault also gets some action in the run game. I think Cole can be had really cheap because people won’t believe this offense can sustain three receivers. They may be right, but for very cheap, you should look into acquiring Keelan Cole Sr.

Chase Claypool: Most Pro-Ready WR?

Last week Chase Claypool made headlines with a jaw-dropping highlight catch. He put up 47 yards on just 19 snaps in a respectable debut. In Week 2, Claypool made the highlight reel again with an 84-yard touchdown, the longest play of the young season. I wrote about Claypool this offseason. My conclusion was this: He is an athletic freak and there just aren’t players at his size with his athleticism. It is basically D.K. Metcalf and Claypool.

Claypool has caught all five of his targets this season. He is quickly moving ahead of James Washington. Diontae and JuJu aren’t going anywhere. On the other hand, the Steelers haven’t been in a game where they fell behind and need to air it out. That could change the next few games. Claypool is currently PFF’s highest-graded WR. Not just out of rookies, overall! It surely won’t be this smooth sailing all the way, but it looks legitimate. If Claypool keeps it up, his snaps are going to increase regardless of who else the Steelers have. He is a mismatch that brings something different.

Josh Allen Has Taken His Game To The Next Level

Well, that is a headline I didn’t think I’d be writing. Josh Allen took a big step forward last year, drastically cutting down on his interceptions. Still, as a passer, it wasn’t enough. Only Dwayne Haskins had a worse completion percentage. The Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs. Allen’s own progression plus the addition of a true star receiver has been huge.

Allen had two fumbles in Week One but looked great in the air. This week he had no turnovers and looked tremendous. His 312 Week 1 passing yards was already his career-high by a comfortable amount. In Week 2 he upped that over 100 yards to 417. Four passing touchdowns were also a new career-best.

Now there is a necessary caveat. The Jets are pretty clearly the worst team in the league. The Dolphins sure are not good. The Bills schedule is a LOT tougher from here on out. That starts with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams next week. Josh Allen has already made it clear he has once again taken a step forward. But he has a lot to prove against likely playoff teams in the weeks ahead.

Five Week One Performances I Believe In

 Gardner Minshew Is the Jags Franchise QB

Minshew had some big downs during his rookie season, but on the whole, it was a surprisingly strong season for the 6th rounder. *As a passer*, he outplayed Kyler Murray. In 2020, the Jaguars are (were?) expected to be one of the worst teams with a shot at Trevor Lawrence next year. Minshew decided otherwise. He had a tremendous Week 1 performance. In 15 games and 13 starts, Minshew has 24 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Before Minshew, the last QB to have 20+ TDs and 6 or fewer interceptions over their first 15 games was Dak Prescott. Prescott was a similar late-round draft pick not expected to be the face of the franchise. I’m liking Minshew’s odds to follow that path.

Julio Jones Will Break the Record for Most Consecutive 1,300 yard seasons

Julio is currently tied with Torry Holt at six straight 1,300 yard seasons for most ever. After leading the league with 157 rec yards in Week 1, Julio is already on a great pace to become the first to ever do it in SEVEN STRAIGHT SEASONS. That means over the next 15 games, Julio needs to average a mere 76 yards per game to hit the 1,300-yard mark. I say he gets it done. Especially in the dynasty community, people are scared away from Julio because of his age. The 31-year-old remains arguably the best all-around WR in the league.

Austin Ekeler Is Still Really Good, but 2020 Might Suck

HOW DO YOU ONLY TARGET AUSTIN EKELER ONCE? In one of the worst pairings of QB and RB, Tyrod Taylor seemingly has no interest throwing to his RBs, even when that RB has been THE BEST receiving back by yards per target of ALL-TIME. It was baffling. Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was the interim OC for half of last season and I don’t think there is any way he game-planned 0 targets to Ekeler. So I am putting this one firmly on Tyrod. The move to Herbert can’t come soon enough.

Cam Newton is BACK, Baby!

Over 16 games from 2018-2019, Cam Newton rushed for just 4 touchdowns with a high of 63 yards in a single game. This was the result of ankle injuries. He ended up missing almost all of 2019 and spent much of the 2020 offseason unsigned. The former MVP finally signed with New England in July and in Week 1 put up a vintage Cam performance with a 15-75-2 rushing line. If he can avoid injuries, Cam might be a league winner.

The Raiders Offense Might Be Really Good

Heading into the 2019 season the Raiders were a laughingstock in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. Many questioned whether the TV duo of Mayock/Gruden had a clue what they were doing. After 10 games they were a surprising 6-4 and in the playoff hunt. It, unfortunately, didn’t last but it was enough to sway my opinion. They were doing good work there. Derek Carr had his best season by ANY/A and QBR. Carr became just the fifth quarterback to finish a season with a completion percentage above 70%. He picked up where he left off in Week 1 completing 22/30 passes (73.3%) without a turnover. This opened up running lanes for Josh Jacobs. Jacobs had his first three-touchdown game and also his best game as a receiver (4-46-0). Henry Ruggs looked great in his debut, adding a new dynamic to the offense. I really wish Tyrell Williams didn’t get hurt because they are missing another reliable veteran, but I think this offense will surprise many in 2020. They aren’t going to put up 40 points but they are going to be very efficient with a low turnover rate.

Five Players and Situations I’ll Be Watching Closely in Week 1

It’s been a wild year but the NFL is still pushing on as best as they can, and that means the fantasy season is in full swing. Will we see a higher rate of rookie struggles? Will COVID outbreaks create unexpected breakout seasons from backups? It is going to be weird. Here are some players and situations that will likely have a big impact on fantasy success this year.

Tyler Higbee

Will the dominant streak to end 2019 keep up? Probably not, but will he remain a key piece of the offense? I really think so. Two things need to happen. Higbee needs to be clearly ahead of Gerald Everett and he needs to be ahead of the WR3. Last year these two things only happened thanks to injuries. But when given the opportunity, Higbee put on a show rarely seen from the TE position. Did he do enough for McVay to change his offense? I’ve been very high on Higbee this offseason. We’ll get answers Sunday night.

Devin Singletary vs Zack Moss

Singletary had a great rookie season splitting time with Frank Gore. He put up 969 yards on only 180 touches. Still, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Bills spend a 3rd round pick on Zack Moss. Will it be a true split or more of a 70/30 committee? Both players were discounted in drafts due to the uncertainty so if one player is clearly ahead it will represent a big value to fantasy teams.

The Buccaneers...everything on the offense

This entire offense is intriguing. The battle for WR1 has already seen the edge go to Chris Godwin with Mike Evans doubtful to play Week 1. At Tight End can Gronk return after a year off without missing a beat? Can he stay healthy? It is a pretty safe bet he will be the preferred goal line target as long as he stays on the field. I want to see if he can offer more. At running back, Ronald Jones had a respectful 2019 and cracked 1000 yards from scrimmage. That didn’t stop the Bucs from bringing in a LOT of competition. They drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third and the early thinking was these two would compete for the top role. Vaughn seemed to fall behind with the lack of a full offseason. Then the Bucs signed LeSean McCoy in August. He wasn’t productive in 2019 and couldn’t beat out a mediocre group in Kansas City but some seemed to think he would be the starter. THEN the Bucs signed Leonard Fournette after he got released. Fournette put up over 1,600 yards last year. I think he was a bit underappreciated by the fantasy community. On paper, he should easily slide into the lead role. But it might take a few weeks for him to get acquainted. This is a talented RB group and I don’t think any victory laps should be taken in just one week.

The cherry on top of this powerhouse sundae is of course Tom Brady. 43-year-old Brady is quite a bit removed from what he was even 3 years ago. Can this offense hide the blemishes? How bad could even the worst quarterback be with this offense? We’ll get our first hint of an answer in a matchup of legendary QBs in Brees vs Brady.

The Most Intriguing Rookie is….

The easy, obvious answer is Joe Burrow. I expect him to be good, but I won’t be surprised if he struggles in Week 1 either. Not much intrigue there for me. No, I’m going to give it to Jonathan Taylor. Colts HC Frank Reich has called it a one-one situation (instead of 1-2 or A-B). Marlon Mack will start as the incumbent and has reportedly been a great mentor to Jonathan Taylor. That is nice and all but in terms of talent...Mack is a fine player but Jonathan Taylor can be a game-changer at the position. They will ride the hot hand. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor starts to chip away at the split percentage within his first few touches. At the very least, I am looking for some signs of explosiveness from Taylor.

Do the Titans Have a Few Superstars in the Making or Was it a Mirage?

The Ryan Tannehill reclamation project was a special thing to watch last year. It took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game where they were no match for the eventual champions. Tannehill threw for an incredible 27 TD and 6 INT in 13 total starts including playoffs. However, he was also sacked a LOT. That is concerning for a quarterback that missed the end of 2017 and all of 2018 with knee injuries. His touchdown percentage is also due to regress.

Despite that, you can’t simply write off 2019 as a fluke. Tannehill had tremendous success throwing deep and he led the league in yards per completion while having a low interception rate. The biggest key to that was the emergence of rookie receiver A.J. Brown. Minimum 75 targets, Browns 12.8 yards per target was the best ever for a rookie and the third-best since 1992 which is as far back as the data goes. That is incredible. The list of rookie receivers to have 10+ yards per target is extremely strong. He is certainly due for regression but also a big uptick in volume.

The week 1 matchup will be a big challenge. Playing in Denver is never the easiest and they have a stout secondary. The Broncos added A.J. Bouye and have two of the top PFF graded safeties from last year. I want to see Tannehill flash more of that MVP potential he showcased last year.

Football is back! Quick thoughts on the first game of the season

Chiefs

Mahomes: Clearly the different offseason had no effect here. Mahomes looked like the MVP and reigning champion that he is. The only thing worth noting is that the yards per attempt and completion were lower than normal. That involved a long touchdown drop by DeMarcus Robinson though. No worries there.

Running Backs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire was great, but not entirely in the way I expected. 25-138-1 rushing line with zero receptions on two targets. I certainly would have expected 5+ targets. Darrel Williams was the #2 back and put up 30 yards on 9 touches. Surprisingly he got a good bit of the third down work. While CEH was great today, that could be concerning long-term. Both of CEH’s targets came in the second half where he saw more snaps compared to Williams. Darwin Thompson received 0 snaps and is the clear #3. Don’t expect a breakout for him.

Wide Receivers: Sammy Watkins surprisingly led the way with 9 targets for a 7-82-1 line, clearly outshining Tyreek Hill. Watkins has now strung together four straight games of 76 or more yards dating back to last year’s playoffs. Prior to that he didn’t eclipse 80 receiving yards after Week 1 of last year when he had a monster 9-198-3 against Jacksonville.Overall I am not at all concerned about Tyreek, who still had a touchdown. I’m kind of buying into Watkins as a legitimate player right now.

Disappointingly, Demarcus Robinson was still the WR3 and played poorly to boot. What’s it gonna take to get Mecole Hardman in there!? As the WR4, Hardman caught his lone target for 6 yards. The pass was from behind the line of scrimmage so he wasn’t even thrown to deep. Robinson had two touchdown drops. If that keeps up we will see a shift in these two players.

Tight Ends: It was the Travis Kelce show of course. He had a very reassuring game with two targets from inside the 10 yard line, leading to one touchdown. He had just five touchdowns last year but he should comfortably exceed that and return to a level where he had 18 touchdowns over 2017-18.

Texans

Deshaun Watson: He ended up okay in fantasy points but that is about all that can be said. He racked those points up in garbage time. Watson was sacked 4 times and that is troubling for a QB that has a higher sack% than anyone else min 1000 attempts since 2017. He also had a bad interception where he was hit as he threw. The Texans were down 31-7 before Watson started moving the ball down the field and recorded his only pass touchdown of the night. The Texans have a tough schedule with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Minnesota up next. It could be a slow start for Watson.

Running Backs: Somewhat of a surprise, David Johnson was the guy and looked great on the ground despite his team’s offensive struggles. In total, David Johnson put up 109 yards on 14 touches and looked really good. His gain was Duke Johnson’s loss. Duke had just 14 yards on 5 carries and 1 target. Of course, David Johnson hasn’t been the picture of health the last few years so Duke may still get his opportunity. But for now, Duke is droppable even in deeper redraft leagues and certainly relegated to the bench everywhere.

Wide Receivers: Will Fuller WR1? Watson to Fuller has always been an incredibly successful combination. The problem is there haven't been a whole lot of games where both were active and healthy (mostly Fuller’s fault). Fuller's 8 receptions for 112 yards led all players. For as long as he stays healthy, he needs to be in your lineups.

After Fuller, there wasn’t much success. Brandin Cooks debut was quiet with just 20 yards on 5 targets. Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb were near invisible which was surprising. The WR depth for the Texans should be a strength. Stills and Cobb aren’t world beaters but they are really good as your 3/4 options. DeAndre Carter saw some playing time in Q4 with the game out of hand.

Tight Ends: Jordan Akins and Darren Fells led a 2TE offense. They combined for 4 receptions for 58 yards. Akins scored the lone pass TD of the night for Houston. The 28 year old Akins had a 36-418-2 line last year. He is worth owning in deeper dynasty leagues for sure, but I’m not ready to call him a starting fantasy tight end.

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All stats were supplied by pro-football-reference.com

Chase Claypool: From Canada to Notre Dame to Seriously Impressive and Under the Radar Prospect.

Chasing The Targets: Week 6

I was going to try to get this edition out before the waiver period for most leagues. However, I'm also currently working on applying to business schools and that took priority. I know, I know. How could anything take priority over fantasy football!? Well, the good news is I'm here to write this now. Let's get started.

Juju Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers

Age: 20

Targets:6

Target increase from the previous week:2

Snap Share: 82.3%

Snap Share increase from the previous week: 11.2 %

Ok, so I know that Juju Smith-Schuster is not sitting out there on any dynasty waiver wires. Or if he is, you really need to find yourself a new league to play in. I also know that the Steelers' offense has been such a mess that Ben Roethlisberger is talking about retirement. However, here we have a young receiver who just saw his highest snap share of the season. Did I mention that he's seen at least one red zone target every week since week two? 

Despite seeing fewer targets than Martavis Bryant, Juju has out-snapped him two of the past three weeks. Additionally, want to take a guess about who has seen more red zone targets over that time? If you guessed Juju, congrats you passed! Now is the time to buy the 20-year old before everyone realizes that he's the becoming the true WR2 on this team.

Verdict: Send offers of Mid-Late 2nd

Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 67.1 %
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 49.2 %

Was it fairly predictable that Jerick McKinnon would be more involved in the Vikings offense once Dalvin Cook was done for the season? Sure. Did anyone besides his truthers really expect him to play over 30% more snaps than Latavius Murray though? Probably not.

McKinnon had a great day both through the air and the ground. I know the debate rages on about whether he was really effective on the ground or not. I'm not here to have that debate. Rather, I want to chat about the fact that he was tied for the team lead in targets.

That likely has something to do with Case Keenum taking over for Sam Bradford mid game. Case Keenum figures to continue to be the starter while the Vikings get their quarterback situation figured out, and he's not exactly known for pushing the ball down the field.  In fact, the Vikings as a team attempted only 3 passes that qualified as deep according to pro-football-reference during the entire game. This bodes very well for continued pass-catching success for McKinnon. In more good news, Dalvin Cook may be back next season but McKinnon will be a free agent anyway. With a good showing this season he could easily work himself into a larger role on another team.

Verdict: Send offers of Late 2nd-Early 3rd

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, New York Jets
Age:25
Targets:8
Target increase from the previous week: 4
Snap Share: 83.0%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 5.9 %

There was a time that those of in dynasty circles talked about Austin Sefarian-Jenkins the same way we now talk about O.J Howard or Evan Engram. He was supposed to be that good. Unfortunately, he ran into some issues with alcohol that ultimately led to a DUI and suspension from the league.

Eventually, the Buccaneers decided they had enough and cut him loose. Thankfully for Sefarian-Jenkins, the Jets were willing to a take a flier. It seems to be paying off. It's hard not to root for a guy who so sincerely admitted that he had a problem, and really seems dedicated to turning his life around. Additionally,  while there may not be supremely talented pass catches on the Jets,  he may be the most talented one from an athletic standpoint.

Since returning from the suspension he's seen a steady diet of targets and has watched his snap share climb from 76.2% in week three to 83.0 % this past week. Even more encouraging is in the three weeks he's been active, he's seen two red zone targets and both have come inside the ten-yard line.

Verdict: I had a hard time finding recent trades involving ASJ, but if you need a TE I'd trade pretty much any 2018 3rd for him.

Nick O'Leary, Buffalo Bills
Age:25
Targets:6
Target increase from the previous week:6
Snap Share: 84.3%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 31.0 %

This is another one that is clearly the result of an injury. Charles Clay went down with a torn meniscus and sprained MCL in this game. I'm sure everyone joins me in wishing him a very speedy recovery. However, in the meantime, someone has to catch passes in Buffalo.

For those keeping track at home, Jordan Matthews has been dealing with an injury as well. He may be back after the bye week, but right now Buffalo's top pass catchers are Zay Jones...and likely Nick O'Leary. Did I mention that in the five weeks since the season began Buffalo has targeted their tight end 28% of the time? 

I don't think O'Leary is going to step directly into the volume that Clay had, but his targets game and  share totals certainly indicate that he's someone worth watching. There are plenty of you who can do worse out there, especially since this season it seems like every week another starting tight end is going down. I just wish his bye week hadn't come exactly as we were trying to assess his role.

Verdict: Pick up as end of bench stash

Ed Dickson, Carolina Panthers
Age: 30
Targets: 5
Target increase from last week:1
Snap Share: 100%
Snap Share increase from previous week: 1.6%

This is the second time this season that Ed Dickson has seen 100% of the snap share. That's...very impressive. Of course, just like some of the other guys this week a lot of that has to do with an injury to a player ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, it's important to note who can take advantage of these opportunities when they arise.

Since Greg Olsen's injury in week 3, Dickson has seen 10 targets. On those 10 targets, he has a line of 9-245-0. Talk about being hyper-efficient! However, we should keep in mind that the bulk of those yards came in his 175-yard effort against the Lions this past week. He's very unlikely to repeat that.

I also believe we need to keep in mind that Devin Funchess played tight end in college. He's really grown in the offense since Olsen went down too. Funchess has put up an 18-201-3 line since Olsen's injury in week three. With touchdown catches like the one Funchess made last week, he's finally living up to the "fun" part of his name.

Dickson is certainly worth monitoring after putting up a 62-yard effort followed by his 175-yard effort, but I worry about his long-term value in dynasty leagues. We are already entering week six, and Olsen is expected back in week ten. It's not like we are talking about the performance of a young highly rated prospect, but rather someone who has only broken 300 yards once in his eight-year career. That's not to say Dickson can't be a valuable piece for you while Olsen is out, but I wouldn't over-invest.

Verdict: Pick up off waivers

Recap from last week:

Aldrick Robinson:Marquise Goodwin was able to play this week and Robinson only saw one target. Can safely remove from your radars unless something were to happen to Goodwin again.

Ricardo Louis:Continues to see a high amount of targets and snap share. Put up 71 yards on eight targets last week. I hope you listened about picking him up.

Adam Humphries: Saw a snap share increase but target decrease. Still caught three balls for 51 yards. Still a solid PPR option in deep leagues.

Tyler Kroft: Reports are that Tyler Eifert is getting season ending surgery. Kroft is continuing to see increased snap share and red zone targets. Another guy I hope you picked up last week.

That's it for this week! As always, if you have any questions feel free to message me on twitter @RekedFantasy.

Until next time,

Rek

* This article borrows stats from www.pro-football-reference.com, and playerprofiler.com

Chasing The Targets: Week 5

I've been trying to figure out what I wanted to do in-season for a bit. Then this idea came to me somewhat as a cousin to the "Breaking Down The Targets series" I did over the summer.  Just to clarify one thing-this advice is purely for dynasty leagues and those with generally deep benches.

I'm going to stick with five or under per article otherwise this article would get way too long and we know not everyone has the attention span for that (myself included). I hope you all enjoy it!

Aldrick Robinson, San Francisco 49ers
Age: 28
Targets:12
Target increase from the previous week: 8
Snap Share: 86.9 %
Snap Share increase from the previous week:  52.7 %

Is it really notable when a guy who is 28 and has never had 400 yards receiving sees this many targets? It may be when the depth chart is as thin as the 49ers and the guy ahead of him-Marquise Goodwin-has suffered four concussions in the past 14 months.Additionally, Robinson has a similar athletic profile to someone else Kyle Shanahan made successful last year-Taylor Gabriel. Robinson was actually on Shanny's Falcons offense last year and had a 100 yard game in Week 15. Perhaps Shanahan is trying to give him a chance to recapture that in San Francisco. I would be wary of adding him though since he did only manage to catch three of the twelve targets that came his way.

Verdict: Watch closely this week

Ricardo Louis, Cleveland Browns
Age:23
Targets:9
Target increase from the previous week:3
Snap Share: 86.2%
Snap Share increase from the previous week: 12.2 %

Next up we find a young receiver who has seen his snap share increase every week this season:

Week 1: 24.2 %

Week 2: 45.1 %

Week 3: 74.0 %

Week 4: 86.2 %

That's certainly encouraging. One thing to watch out for here is that four of his targets came when Kevin Hogan was put into the game for a single drive, replacing the struggling Deshone Kizer. That included his biggest catch of the day for 31 yards. Still, this a team that needs to find playmakers in the worst way. It was supposed to be Rashard Higgins who emerged from the Corey Coleman injury, but it may just be Lewis who is his way to fantasy relevance.

Verdict:  End of the bench stash in leagues with 26+ roster spots

Adam Humphries, Tampa Bay Bucaaneers
Age: 24
Targets: 7
Target decrease from the previous week: 3
Snap Share: 67.2 %
Snap Share decrease from previous week:  6.4 %

Why am I highlighting someone who went down in targets and snaps? Probably because despite the fact that he only saw 3 targets in week 2, Humpries has 20 targets over three weeks. It seems like we as a fantasy community wrote him off because of DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and O.J Howard arriving in town. I'm not sure that was wise. Winston clearly likes him.  He's unlikely to ever have a huge week because he's more of a possession guy, but he's worth monitoring in PPR leagues as a safety outlet for the Bucs.

Verdict: End of bench stash in leagues with 26+ roster spots-acquire cheaply if you can in Best Ball leagues

Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati Bengals
Age: 25
Targets: 7
Target increase from last week: 3
Snap Share: 82.8
Snap Share decrease from last week: 15.6

Tyler Kroft's snap share may have been down from last week but it's up significantly from the first two weeks in the season when he was averaging 32.5%. Look, we all know that Tyler Eifert is the "guy". Until he isn't. What's that mean?

 It means you can only constantly be injured so often before someone steps in and you're Wally Pipp'd. Tyler two might not be as athletic as Tyler one, but my dad's friend had a saying for this occasion, "half the battle is just showing up". Did I mention that Kroft had two targets in the red zone last week and caught both of them for touchdowns? Oh-and Eifert is a free agent next season. Insert multiple fire emojis here.

Verdict: Add anywhere you could use some tight end depth (aka the majority of the leagues). Kicking myself for not going harder after him myself.

Since I don't have five this week I feel like are really under the radar here are some other notable and more recognizable target gainers:

Alvin Kamara-10 (+5 from previous week)
Snap Share: 35.1% (+5.8%)

Devin Funchess-9 (-1 from previous week but seeing a lot since Olsen injury)
Snap Share: 92.1 % (+8%)

Duke Johnson-10 (+3)
Snap Share: 55.4% (+3.5%)

That's it for this week. Did you enjoy this article? If you did-shoot me a note @RekedFantasy. It takes a while to research and while I want to continue to do it-I'll definitely be more inclined if people are enjoying it.

Until next time,

Rek

Bobby's Dynasty Ranks: TE (10/2/17)

You all know the drill by now. This will be exactly the same format as my WR rankings. Tight End may not be the most exciting area for fantasy but it's one of the few positions where there are true difference makers.

1.) Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Age:27
2016 PPG: 11.3 (Tied 1st)
HC/OC: Andy Reid/ Matt Nagy
QB: Alex Smith

You may know that Travis Kelce was the TE1 last year. You may also know that was one of the lowest scoring TE1 seasons in years. That doesn't change that he is the guy to own in dynasty. I know some of you will argue Gronk but at a certain point, you have to say this guy missing games hurt my team.

2.) Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Age:28
2016 PPG:10.6 (Third)
HC/OC: Bill Belichick/ Josh McDaniels
QB: Tom Brady

Weird. Did you guys just hear someone say something negative about Gronk? Must have just left. We all know when he's on the field he's a dominant force. It's just a matter of staying healthy which has always been an issue for him.

3.) Jordan Reed
Age: 27
2016 PPG: 11.3 (First)
HC/OC: Jay Gruden/Matt Cavanaugh
QB: Kirk Cousins

Another guy who would be among the elite if only he could stay healthy. The concussions are a bit scary since he's accumulated so many. However, what he did in 2015 isn't that long ago and is certainly tantalizing.

4.) Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 26
2016 PPG: 10.3 (6th)
HC/OC: Doug Pederson/ Frank Reich
QB: Carson Wentz

Has seen 100+ targets the past two seasons. Already averaging six targets a game this season. Wentz clearly loves him. The only reason he's not higher? Where are the touchdowns? Show me the touchdowns!

5.) Evan Engram, New York Giants
Age:23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Ben McAdoo/Mike Sullivan
QB: Eli Manning

Is this an aggressive ranking? You know it. However, I'm going to share a tweet here:

Engram's pace would put him second (since 1920) for rookie TE receptions (76) and fifth in yards (800).
via @pfref https://t.co/4CzQxDA6sd

— George Kritikos (@RotoHack) October 2, 2017

The Giants loooove to target their tight ends and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Engram is a future stud in the making at an accelerated pace.

6.) Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
Age: 32
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Ron Rivera/ Mike Shula
QB: Cam Newton

Until the injury this season Olsen had started every game since the 2012 season. He's the picture of consistency. The injury is a bit concern of his age. Hopefully, he can recover because he is easily Cam's favorite target when he's on the field.

7.) Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
Age:27
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Marvin Lewis/ Bill Lazor
QB: Andy Dalton

You should pretty much read what I wrote about Reed for Tyler Eifert. Another guy who had a tantalizing 2015 season but has trouble staying healthy. The clock is ticking a bit fast on this ranking.

8). Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 8.6 (13th)
HC/OC: Anthony Lynn/Ken Whisenhunt
QB: Phillip Rivers

You may know that rookie tight ends almost never produce anything. You may also know that Hunter Henry caught 8 touchdowns last season. His involvement this season has been limited but once Antonio Gates is out of the picture he's going to take off.

9.) Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 27
2016 PPG: 10.5 (Tied 4th)
HC/OC: Mike Zimmer/ Pat Shurmur
QB: Sam Bradford

It feels weird to be ranking Rudolph this high but here we are. Remember when we all laughed when he declared himself the best TE in the league? Maybe he meant one of the best as long as Sam Bradford is throwing him the ball.

10.) O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age:22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Dirk Koetter/Todd Monken
QB: Jameis Winston

Howard finally gave us a taste of what he can do this past week when he caught two of four targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. With Cameron Brate still around it may take some time for him to still be involved, but be patient. He's a top talent at the position and you're going to be glad you have him on your roster.

11.) Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 9.8 (7th)
HC/OC: Pete Caroll/Darrell Bevell
QB: Russell Wilson

The move to Seattle meant Jimmy Graham was supposed to ball out.  He's clearly not the same player he was in New Orleans. That doesn't mean he isn't still very effective. Over 900 yards and 6 touchdowns will play in almost every format.

12.) Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons
Age: 23
2016 PPG: 4.5 (51st)
HC/OC:  Dan Quinn/ Steve Sarkisian
QB: Matt Ryan

Being part of the Falcons offense is a great place to be fantasy wise. It somewhat feels like Hooper is the forgotten man because of the rookie class of tight ends and Hunter Henry getting more attention. Don't forget about him. He already has a game of 100+ yards with a TD in the short season. 

13.) David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Age:21
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC:  Hue Jackson/ Gregg Williams
QB: Deshone Kizer

This ranking is more about the Browns than Njoku himself. I just don't fully trust Kizer yet, and it's trouble if the Browns need to get yet another QB. Long term I still believe Njoku will have a lot of value though.

14.) Jack Doyle, Indianpolis Colts
Age: 27
2016 PPG:7.2 (27th)
HC/OC: Chuck Pagano/Rob Chudzinski
QB: Andrew Luck/Jacoby Brissett

What happened to the Doyle hype train from the off-season? The season hit and the Colts look a little lost without Andrew Luck?  Doyle still managed to have a pretty solid game week 2 and has the benefit of Andrew Luck being back at some point.

15.) Delanie Walker, Tennesee Titans
Age: 33
2016 PPG: 10.4 (5th)
HC/OC: Mike Mularkey/Terry Robiskie
QB: Marcus Mariota

Walker has been a reliable option since the '14 season. He has scored at least 4 touchdowns and 800 receptions yards each season since then. That said, the Titans have Jonnu Smith in town who is off a decent start of his career. Additionally, Walker can be cut next year while saving a ton of money for the Titans.

16.) Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills
Age:28
2016 PPG: 7.2 (29th)
HC/OC: Sean McDermott/ Rick Dennison
QB: Tyrod Taylor

He could have a new QB next year but talk about production coming out of nowhere. Clay is seeing a huge amount of volume for the Bills this season and making the most of his opportunity. A rookie tight end might just see him as the security blanket they need.

17.) Coby Fleener, New Orleans Saints
Age: 29
2016 PPG: 7 (31st)
HC/OC: Sean Payton/Pete Carmichael
QB: Drew Brees

Through four games this season Fleener has two touchdowns. All of the last season he had three. The Saints offense is a beneficial place to be and it seems like Fleener is starting to get the hang of the ropes.

18.) Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 8.8 (18th)
HC/OC: Mike McCarthy/Edgar Bennett
QB: Aaron Rodgers

If you read my Packers BDTT you'd know that Mike McCarthy basically never throws to his tight end. However, the team did use the position a bit more in the postseason last season which may have encouraged them to go after Martellus Bennett in the first place. Bennett hasn't done much to start the season but he is seeing target volume that should translate eventually.

19.) Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams
Age:23
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Sean McVay/ Matt LaFleur
QB: Jared Goff

Emerging offense? Check. Young QB to grow with? Check. A ton of natural talent? You know what I'm going to say. He does have to compete with Higbee but the early returns have been better for him than Higbee this season.

20.) George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Age: 22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Kyle Shanahan/Robert Saleh
QB: Brian Hoyer

The team traded away the only competition Kittle had. He hasn't done a ton in his starting role, but Brian Hoyer hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire either. Keep the faith as the Falcons tight ends combined for eight touchdowns with Shanahan as the offensive coordinator last season.

21.) C.J Fiedorwicz, Houstan Texans

Age: 25
2016 PPG: 7.1 (32nd)
HC/OC: Bill O'Brien
QB: Deshaun Watson

I could see Ryan Griffin stealing this ranking from him.  I'll put my faith in the one with the better athletic profile and higher draft pedigree..for now. It'll be very interesting to see his usage when he returns from his concussion.

22.) Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders
Age: 30
2016 PPG: 5.7 (42nd)
HC/OC:  Jack Del Rio/ Todd Downing
QB: Derek Carr

We keep trying to make Jared Cook happen, but maybe he's just average? I do like the fact that he's seeing a lot of volume in the Raiders offense though.  Maybe he can be the "Seth Roberts" this year and score a bunch of touchdowns that make Amari Cooper owners angry?

23.) Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, New York Jets
Age: 25
2016 PPG: 3.1 (81st)
HC/OC: Todd Bowles/John Morton
QB: Josh McCown

I'm not usually one to trust guys who can't seem to get it together but he may be the most talented pass catcher on the Jets.He's seeing a good amount of target volume, and it wasn't long ago that he was very well thought of in the dynasty community. If the Jets can get a legitimate QB at the helm watch out.

24.) Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers
Age:23
2016 PPG: 4.5 (76th)
HC/OC: Mike Tomlin/Todd Haley
QB: Ben Roethlisberger

Vance McDonald was supposed to steal Jesse James jobs. I was so wrong about James and bid way too much on McDonald in one league. The Steelers are similar to the Giants-they target their tight ends all the time.

25.) Jake Butt, Denver Broncos
Age:22
2016 PPG: N/A
HC/OC: Vance Joseph/ Mike McCoy
QB: Trevor Siemian

Butt was thought of as right up there with the rest of this class before getting injured. It feels weird to type this after A.J. Derby just had the best game of his career, but I do believe Butt will eventually be the tight end the Broncos need. All pun intended.

If you have any questions about my ranks after the top 25 definitely feel free to message me on twitter @RekedFantasy. Always open to a twitter conversation!