The seaweed is always greener: An examination of Jarvis Landry and the Dolphins top WRS

I know what you're thinking. This is this guy's second article about the Dolphins. He either must be from Miami or really enjoy T-Pain's fight song. I promise neither is the case. It's just that the Dolphins have a very interesting offense to examine for this upcoming season.

Let's begin with Jarvis Landry. Besides having the same name as Tony Stark's butler, he is best known for being one of the best fantasy assets in PPR leagues. Between 2015 and 2016 he saw his targets decrease by over 30, but increased his catch rate by over 5% and yards per catch by nearly 2 yards to put up a statistically similar seasons.

In fact, Landry is only 24 and already has two seasons of over 1,100 yards under his belt. His rookie season was nothing to scoff at either with a 84-758-5 line. Additionally, since coming into the league in 2014 Landry has the third highest catch % of all wide receivers (min 200 targets). That puts him ahead of fantasy darlings Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald! So why is he being treated like a very good asset but not an elite asset in dynasty leagues?

It's pretty obvious. Those 5 receiving touchdowns he scored in his rookie season were the most of his career to date. When you're not much of a red zone threat your ceiling is capped for fantasy purposes.

That's not the only factor impacting Landry's value though. The Dolphins have a surprisingly good group of wide receivers going into the coming year. None more hyped than Devante Parker.

Parker has been eating into Landry's perceived value since being drafted 14th overall in the 2015 draft. Parker's rookie season was interrupted by a foot injury, but he ended that season with four out of six games topping 80 yards. After witnessing what he could do in 2015, we all had understandably high hopes for him in 2016.

Much to the loud groans of the fantasy community at large, the Parker hype train got slightly derailed in 2017. It's not that he had a bad season. Rather he was very inconsistent. He'd have great weeks surrounded by weeks where he could barely put up 30 yard games.

What happened instead was the re-emergence of Kenny Stills. In 2015, the Saints looked like geniuses for getting rid of Stills when he could only manage a 63-440-3 line. Nobody saw his 81-726-9 line coming in 2016 at all.

These two guys have directly impacted the value of Landry through the "seaweed is always greener" effect. Stop me if you've heard this one before but Ariel's life was the bubbles and she had no troubles under the sea. Yet-she dreamed about going somewhere else just because it was different.

Does that sound familiar? Sort of reminds you of being a Landry owner right? You have an incredibly consistent receiver but you can't help but dream about what might be waiting out there.  If you really suffer from this effect badly-you may even convince yourself that Leonte Carroo and Isaiah Ford may emerge as threats to Landry. Seek help if this sounds like you!

There's not as much reason to be afraid of the other two receivers as I mentioned either. Stills likely hit his ceiling last year especially since he only caught slightly over half the targets thrown his way. If he can't reel in more targets, you shouldn't consider him your catch of the day.

Parker, on the other hand, will likely become a killer whale in his own right. Just like everyone else this off-season, I believe it will happen this year. However, Dolphins who feed alone find themselves prey rather than predators. Parker and Landry can co-exist. If it turns out they can't, guess what? Landry's contract is up after this year.

Landry could find himself on another team that may find ways to utilize him in the red zone the Dolphins didn't think of. He may never be a touchdown machine, but the consistency of top 20 numbers in PPR year to year can't be ignored either. Don't let Landry be the sunken treasure you find but ignore because you're looking for Atlantis.

Until next time,

Rek
@RekedFantasy

Dynasty Rookie Sleepers - Players to monitor after your rookie draft

I told you all I felt this was a really deep draft class right? Even after covering 53 players so far, I still have players I want to bring up. Pretty much every year without fail there are guys that go undrafted in dynasty rookie drafts but end up being contributors to fantasy teams. In 2015 Thomas Rawls fit the bill. Last year it was Dak Prescott (in 1QB leagues that drafted early) and Tyreek Hill. To a lesser extent, undrafted players Robby Anderson and Jalen Richard became worthy of at least being on dynasty rosters. Below I have five guys I don’t see myself drafting but I do plan to keep an eye on them. If you are in a league like mine with expanded rosters during the offseason, these guys make great stashes. If they generate buzz during the preseason, great! If not they can be cut without harm.

RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers

I’m starting off with Breida because A.) I think it’s well documented that I am all in on Kyle Shanahan at this point and B.) He is the #1 SPARQ RB of 2017. He was also insanely productive in college with 171 carries in 2014 for 1485 yards and 18 total touchdowns. That’s an incredible 8.7 yards per carry. In 2015 he backed that up with 203 carries for 1609 yards and 17 touchdowns. That was a 7.9 YPC. These numbers came at the Sun Belt Conference’s Georgia Southern but that 8.7 YPC was the third best since 2000 minimum 150 carries (via Sports-Reference). The guy was on pace to be a 3rd or 4th round draft pick at worst. 

Then...2016 happened. While remaining as Georgia Southern’s feature back he had 168 carries for 646 yards and 5 TDs. That is a 3.8 YPC which would have been unacceptable for an NFL prospect in even the toughest of conferences. The dropoff was shocking and I can’t think of a comparable situation. Breida was not even invited to the NFL combine. I’m sure expectations were low at Georgia Southern’s pro day but even if scouts were expecting impressive athleticism from Breida, he blew them away. He ran a 4.39 in the 40 (4.44 after adjusting for hand timed) and combined it with an impressive 23 reps of the bench press. That would have been the 4th best 40 time and tied for third best in the bench press at the combine. He didn’t stop there though. His 42” vertical was easily better than anyone at the combine (Alvin Kamara’s 39.5 was #1). His 11’2” broad jump? Once again better than any combine RB, beating Kamara’s 10’11” jump.

So here we have a guy that put up eye-popping numbers in 2014 and ‘15. He is insanely athletic. He was paired with one of the best offensive minds in the game. He was just genuinely so terrible in 2016 that everything else must be taken with a grain of salt. I want to stash this guy on all of my offseason rosters. If anybody can rectify whatever his 2016 issues were, its Shanny.

WR Isaiah Ford, Miami Dolphins

Much like college teammate Bucky Hodges (coincidence or not?) in my previous article, Ford was a guy that many draft analysts had in their top 100. Ford had excellent numbers as a 3-year starter and is only 21 years old so adjusted for age they look even better. However, unlike Bucky Hodges, Ford did not excel at the combine outside of a 127” broad jump. He ran a 4.61 40 yard dash and at 6’1” 194 lbs he isn’t nearly big enough to ignore that lack of speed like with Mike Williams. The final nail in the coffin was NFL teams validating those issues by letting Ford slip all the way to the 7th round, 237th overall. If possible to make that even worse, he went to the Dolphins who are loaded at receiver with Landry, Parker, Stills and even Carroo. You have to imagine the Dolphins do like him quite a bit to take him in the draft at all despite their WR depth but I would still give Ford almost no chance to make an impact in 2017. He is worth a deep roster stash just to see if he can make some waves in the preseason but if he finds his way onto any of my rosters I doubt he’d make my regular season team.

TE Jake Butt, Denver Broncos

After the criticism Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette faced for skipping their bowl games, Butt was a somber reminder why it’s not a bad idea. The promising Butt (ugh that sounds weird) was likely going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder with a chance for immediate impact before tearing his ACL in the Orange Bowl. That was December 30th of 2016 meaning there is a very good chance he does not play a down in the NFL this year. It also means we don’t have athletic measurements on Butt. 

With the Broncos, Butt has little competition as of now. However his QB situation is uncertain and OC Mike McCoy has a spotty track record with tight ends. McCoy made very little use of receiving TEs in his first stint with the Broncos. Julius Thomas played his first two years under McCoy but did not break out until Adam Gase came in. When becoming the Chargers head coach he was handed one of the greatest tight ends of all time in Antonio Gates and we can’t really attribute any success Gates had to McCoy. However he also was the man in charge while Ladarius Green gave us flashes of brilliance without ever becoming the fantasy starter many expected. Lastly in his final year as HC rookie Hunter Henry emerged as a potential future star at the position. There is definitely talent and opportunity here and Butt can be stashed on the IR in dynasty leagues, but is it worth passing up a player that can possibly increase his value in the now? For me that’s a no but I wouldn’t fault anyone for disagreeing.

*Super Sleeper Special*

RB Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams, Cincinnati Bengals

An awesome nickname, SEC production and above average athleticism, it’s simultaneously weird and understandable that Boom comes with zero fanfare. Obviously, the primary and extremely significant factor is opportunity. Signing with the Bengals it’s near impossible to imagine Boom getting significant playing time. Unless they keep 4 RBs it’s hard to see him making the team - even then RB Cedric Peerman has been a special teams mainstay for several years. Come to think of it, maybe getting cut by the Bengals would be the best possible outcome for Boom!

Anyway...Boom (yeah that’s right, I’m sticking with the awesome nickname) played at Kentucky, one of the runts of the SEC which certainly aided his lack of buzz. He’s also very small at 5’7”, though his 190 lbs is not an issue at that height. As far as production, results were mixed. He never went below 6.5 YPC in his three years and that is phenomenal in the SEC. On the flip side he maxed out at 171 carries and 1,170 yards in 2016 while also being on the lesser side of an RB committee. As a senior he had poor performances in the bowl game against Georgia Tech and also against Alabama (as one would expect) but also had a 15-123-1 vs South Carolina and 16-127-1 line against Tennessee. At the combine he ranked above average in every drill except for the bench press. That’s a bit of a shame as it would have offset his small size. Boom has basically no chance to make an impact on the Bengals in the now or in the future with Joe Mixon being there. I can only hope he finds his way to another team. He meets too many of the criteria I look for in a prospect to not get mentioned here.

Dynasty Deep Dive - Five more players to consider in your rookie draft!

As I tweeted out right after I published my 4th round article, I still had a number of dynasty prospects that intrigued me. My drafts may only be 48 to 49 picks (depending on a toilet bowl bonus pick!) but there are still players out there that I wanted to highlight. In fact even after this article I may have a few more I want to bring up! Anyway, these players are not too far off from my 4th rounders and could be taken in the 40s without issue from me.

WR Ishmael Zamora, Oakland Raiders

If you’re reading this article you are probably enough of a dynasty nut to know why Zamora did not get drafted. Despite size (6’4” 224 lbs) that offensive coordinators would drool over and above average athleticism, no team wanted to risk the backlash of drafting Zamora. His offence: disciplining his dog by whipping his rottweiler with a belt. There is video of it but frankly I couldn’t bring myself to watch it. Zamora had a 63-809-8 line in 10 games and definitely flashed star potential. He was inconsistent though and after leaving college with just one year as a starter, he will likely have a harder time adjusting to the NFL. I don’t see myself taking him in my rookie draft but I would have to consider adding him if he was available on waivers afterward.

RB T.J. Logan, Arizona Cardinals

If you own David Johnson, it is an absolute must that you find a way to get your hands on this speedster. With very little competition to speak of, Logan is almost guaranteed the handcuff role to DJ. On his own merit, he is an intriguing dynasty flier as well. He was the fastest RB at the combine at a 4.37. He caught 76 passes in college. Should anything happen to David Johnson (though I certainly hope that isn’t the case!) you can expect Logan would fill some of that void in the passing game along with picking up carries. The biggest issue with Logan is that he never had a feature role in college. He led the RBs in touches at UNC in 2014 but it was just 119 carries as the offense centered around QB Marquise Williams who had 193 carries. In 2015 and 16 he was the lesser half of a decent but not great RB duo with Elijah Hood. However, thanks to a strong combine and landing spot, Logan is the one to own in dynasty. Let me reiterate though that if you own David Johnson, Logan is an absolute must grab. Make sure you have a 4th round pick to spend on him.

WR Jehu Chesson, Kansas City Chiefs

Going into the 2016 season I think Chesson and his fellow Wolverine Amara Darboh were about equal as NFL prospects. Coming out of the season Darboh had clearly set himself apart. Chesson was slightly more productive in 2015 but for whatever reason, QB Wilton Speight heavily preferred Darboh and even TE Jake Butt as Chesson slid from a line of 50-764-9 to 35-500-2. Yikes. Chesson recouped some value with a fantastic combine where he ranked as the 14th best WR in SPARQ (Darboh was 18th). Chesson ran a 4.47 in the 40 which was excellent for his size (6’3” 204 lbs). He also ranked above average in every other drill outside of the bench press. His value hinged on the outcome of the NFL draft and going at the end of the 4th to the Chiefs was just okay at best. He gives future starter Patrick Mahomes another fast and big target to go along with Chris Conley. For 2017 don’t expect much of an impact if any as Jeremy Maclin, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be the main weapons in the passing game.

RB Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears

I love me some Tarik Cohen. He was insanely productive at FCS North Carolina A&T. He was a four year starter with a final season of 1927 YFS and 19 TDs. Those numbers came with a 7.5 YPC and 37 receptions. He is also fast - he ran a 4.42 at the combine. According to mockdraftable, he has massive hands at 10 and an eighth inches, 95th percentile. That’s great for the pass-catching back he profiles as. What kept him off my top 48? Well he’s tiny. 5’6” 179 lbs. He’s not strong either with a 2nd percentile bench press. He reminds me of the faster but similar sized Dri Archer. Archer was drafted in the 3rd round by the Steelers and ended up being a zero in the NFL. What may separate Cohen from Archer is that Tarik was far more productive in college with a much bigger sample size as well. Cohen is never going to be a feature back so I don’t really factor Jordan Howard into his value. Cohen’s best bet at relevance will be a third down back and his speed and hand size give him a lot of potential in that role. Watch the vid below, ‘nuff said.

TE Bucky Hodges, Vikings

This is a very deep class for TEs and Bucky Hodges continues the trend. Hodges is extremely athletic, and ranks 3rd in SPARQ score among TEs. He was also a three year starter with nice numbers. He was originally recruited to Virginia Tech as a quarterback but quickly moved to tight end. The fact that he was able to make an impact as a redshirt freshman with very little experience really was amazing. Many draft analysts had Hodges as a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. For whatever reason he fell all the way to the Vikings in the 6th round, 201st overall. The most likely reason for his draft day fall was that he still has a ways to go as a receiver. ProFootballFocus compared him to Jimmy Graham but also cited a very high drop rate as a concern. He will likely need a year or two to adapt to the NFL and continue honing his skills as a pass catcher but Hodges has a very high ceiling and is well worth considering in the 4th round of your draft.

Sam Badford? Maybe not.

I really wanted to write about Adam Thielen. I'm feelin' Thielen. I'm hooked on a Thielen. However, according to my own rankings I also really dig Diggs.

This article isn't about either of them though. I noticed something when doing my dynasty ranks. I have both these players high and yet I really disliked Bradford. You may know him by his popular name "Badford". Is that well deserved? For those of you in two quarterback or superflex leagues, it seems like it's worth finding out.

Let's begin with the negatives for Bradford.  Since entering the league in 2010 he has ranked near the bottom of yards per pass attempt among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 200 passes. He finished 32nd overall in 2010, 32nd in 2011, 28th in 2012, 36th in 2013, *did not play in 2014*, 25th in 2015, and 21st in 2016.  He has shown improvement but those stats definitely show he has earned his reputation as a game manager.

During that same span, he's never finished higher than the 18th best quarterback in terms of passing touchdowns.  In fact, the most touchdowns he has ever passed for was 21 back in 2012. Not exactly an awe inspiring stat for fantasy purposes.

Now we're getting to the fun part! What if I told you there is a quarterback that everyone loves that  was statistically similar to Bradford in 2015 and 2016? Derek Carr has an identical yards per attempt to Bradford over the past two years. Additionally, he has only slightly more yardage. Bradford passed for 3877 yards last year versus Carr's 3937.

I'm not here to convince you that Bradford is Carr's equal. Carr is obviously younger and plays in a better offense.  Additionally, based on football results I now believe that raiders were better at "scoring" than vikings must have been.

However, I am here to cure you of the notion that Bradford is trash. Last year was his first in the Vikings' offense and he set the single season record in completion percentage! He ranked 16th in total yards. He even ranked 19th in touchdown passes! In case that wasn't enough for you, his int % ranked 4th best of all quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes.

Granted all of that only amounted to the QB23 in fantasy leagues. It was still good enough to finish ahead of rookie "sensation" Carson Wentz. There's also reason to hold out hope for an even better season.

Thielen just had his "breakout year". Diggs is still a young player who many (myself included) don't feel has hit his ceiling yet. Laquan Treadwell was a highly coveted player coming into last year's draft. He may have only had one catch but supposedly he was also injured. Add in the receiving prowess of Dalvin Cook and you suddenly have a very legitimate looking Vikings' offense.

Bradford may not have tales of his quarterback skills told in Valhalla, but he is currently the right man to helm the ship. At current ADP, Brian Hoyer is going off the board before Bradford. If you're in a two quarterback or super-flex league make a move for Bradford now.  You'd be getting a QB2 at a bye week fill in price. When you're partying with Thor during your league victory parade you can thank me.

Until next time,

Rek
@RekedFantasy

Dynasty Football 2017 Rookie Rankings - 4th Round

I’d say this is where we look at the really deep sleepers and identify some rather unknown players but honestly, there are a number of high profile names that fell to my 4th round for any number of reasons. There are multiple players drafted in the top 100 still to be named. Multiple combine darlings. Multiple FBS stars with big time production. Maybe it is because I’ve done more research this year but I honestly feel like this is the deepest class that I’ve seen since I’ve been doing dynasty (4th year now). 2014 was tremendous as far as WRs go but I don’t believe the 4th round had as much to offer as 2017 does. This round is WR heavy. I have a reputation as a hoarder of WRs and love looking for diamonds in the rough at the position so that is no surprise to those that play dynasty with me. Read on to see what I think!

37.) WR Trent Taylor, San Francisco 49ers

Taylor is an intriguing case of big time production at odds with his lack of size and athleticism. Taylor led the FBS in receiving yards, ahead of his much higher rated teammate Carlos Henderson. He was also second in receptions. His line of 136-1803-12 is eye popping. He rarely faced top teams but was at least respectable when he did. 4-68-1 against Oklahoma. 8-80-0 against Auburn. Both of those games came as a sophomore, mind you. 10-149-1 against Arkansas State in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl. 8-78-0 against Arkansas. Lastly, in their final game for Louisiana Tech it was Taylor who shined in the Armed Forces Bowl with the best performance of his college career, putting up a line of 12-233-2 against Navy in a game his team won as time expired. If Taylor could have simply put up respectable numbers at the combine it would have been so much easier to like him. Instead you get a guy that is tiny for the NFL at 5’8” 181 lbs and also very slow at 4.63. For what it’s worth Taylor also has tiny hands for a receiver at 8 and a quarter inches. According to mockdraftable.com that puts him in the 2nd percentile. If you recall from 2016, there was plenty of skepticism over Tajae Sharpe’s hand size and he comes in at 8 and three quarters inches. I love Taylor’s college production and I think he can be a decent slot receiver in the NFL but his ceiling is very much capped by his size and athleticism. He will have opportunity right away with the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan will get the most out of him, but to take him earlier than the 4th round would be quite a risk.

38.) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars

Dede was electric on the field. His 80-1524-17 line at Oklahoma is absurd. For comparison, Joe Mixon’s 37 recs and 538 rec yards were second most on the team. He also has big play speed with a 4.44 in the 40. How in the world did a guy with numbers like that fall so far? A couple domestic violence incidents were the main factor. His extremely slender frame also played a part. At 6’0” he is 4 inches taller than Taylor above and (spoiler!) Ryan Switzer below but weighs just 178 lbs. His numbers outside of the 40 yard dash were mostly poor. He is also among the older rookies and turns 24 in November. For dynasty purposes, landing with the Jags was less than ideal. I do believe Allen Robinson is firmly locked in as the WR1 while Hurns and Lee will battle for the WR2 & 3 roles. It’s hard to see Westbrook making a big impact in year one unless you think he is a phenomenal talent. In which case he should be able to pass Hurns and Lee and you should take him somewhere in the 3rd. Westbrook may have the highest ceiling of any player in my 4th round but he requires patience and certainly comes with concerns.

39.) WR Ardarius Stewart, New York Jets

Ardarius is one of those guys I look at and say “Wow, do I really have him so low?”. Ardarius was pretty productive for the Crimson Tide after you adjust for the low passing numbers. He maxed out at 54-864-8 in college, but of course Alabama runs as much as they can. He clocks in for the 40 at 4.49 which is very nice with his 5’11” 204 lbs size. He was drafted 79th overall which is much higher than some of the players elsewhere in my 4th round. He has opportunity to make an impact right away but...it’s with the Jets. The Jets are vying with the Rams for worst passing situation in the league. With the Rams signing an offensive head coach, I’d probably put the Jets at the bottom. The Jets finished 27th in pass yards and 28th in pass TDs last year. I don’t see that number improving. I’m definitely in favor of them getting some help for the pass game but their offensive outlook is so bleak that I intend to let someone else take Stewart this year and then perhaps buy him at a rather low price late in 2017 or 2018 if he shows talent or they get a better situation on offense.

40.) RB Wayne Gallman, New York Giants

Gallman was a 3 year starter for one of the premier college teams and landed with a team where he could end up starting at some point this year. I won’t be surprised if he gets taken in the late 2nd of some rookie drafts. However, looking a little deeper shows a player that doesn’t really have much to offer. Despite starting for the national champs, he numbers were not great outside of 17 touchdowns. His 4.9 YPC was well below average for an NFL prospect and also dropped off from his Sophomore year which you never like to see. When Clemson needed him most, he pretty much never stepped up. 9 carries for 34 yards when the Tigers were nearly upset by Troy. 18 for 36 in the lone loss of the season to Pittsburgh (although he did score 3 touchdowns). Lastly 18 carries for 46 yards against Alabama. Of course Alabama shut down plenty of talented running backs so make of that what you will. At the combine he did not improve his draft stock either. Gallman ran a 4.60 and finished in the bottom 50% in every drill except the bench press and broad jump. By drafting Gallman the Giants seem to have put value on Gallman playing against some of the toughest competition. If you draft Gallman it will be on the hope he starts some games this year and I’d rather look for someone with more talent but less opportunity.

41.) WR Mack Hollins, Philadelphia Eagles

Now into the 4th round you can probably guess what I like about Mack Hollins. He has the perfect size speed combo at 6’4” with a 4.53 in the 40. That led to a career yards per catch of 20.6. However he fell due to a broken collarbone in 2016 as well as an injury at the combine. Even before the broken collarbone he was not having a great senior season. He definitely needs to become more refined as a receiver as well, having maxed out at 35 catches in a year at North Carolina. He was a deep threat specialist and it remains to be seen if he can become anything more in the NFL. He also joins a very crowded receiver corps with Alshon, Jmatt and Torrey Smith at the top. I have to think he can at least pass DGB and Agholor for #4 in 2017.

42.) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Drafted in the early 3rd, 69th overall (nice), Kupp is a very divisive player in the dynasty community. As you can see, I am on the low end with him. He was incredibly productive all 4 years of college but never improved a whole lot from his freshman year. He is seen as a polished route runner. In 2016 he was 23 years old and dominating FCS competition. I was skeptical then and after a very poor combine and poor landing spot with the Rams, I am pretty much all out on Kupp. If he does fall to the late 3rd or early 4th, he would be a nice pick because of draft investment, but that is the only thing I like about him.

43.) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers

I’ve seen some growing Jamaal Williams hype lately and it’s not entirely undeserved. Williams was very productive in college while playing against decent competition at BYU. He might have been drafted earlier if not for a dismal combine where he excelled in the broad jump (123”) but was awful pretty much everywhere else. At 6’0” his 212 lbs is a rather slender frame for RB. If you’ve read my earlier round articles you already know I think he just doesn’t stack up to rookie teammate Aaron Jones. Of course, they both also have to beat out Ty Montgomery who I really like as well!

44.) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

How could I have Watson so low? Especially compared to Mahomes and Kizer who are less likely to start right away. The answer is simple - I just don’t think Watson will be very good in the NFL. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Quarterback is for me easily the hardest position to project. One of the most damning statistics comes from the great @AllbrightNFL's QB spreadsheet. Ben ranks QBs and has a pretty good track record doing so. One of his main attributes is QB ball velocity. 55 MPH is his threshold for a draftable QB. Brad Kaaya and Nathan Peterman were off the list at 53 MPH. Deshaun Watson was charted at a paltry 49 MPH. He has data going back to 2008. The most successful QBs at 50 and under are Tyrod Taylor (50 MPH) and Mike Glennon (49 MPH). Tyrod is of course heavily aided by his mobility. Deshaun will move around but he will not be nearly the running QB that Tyrod was. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture. For 2QB leagues he would probably vault to the late 2nd round by virtue of being a likely starter, but in 1QB leagues where starting QBs are not a scarce commodity I will gladly pass. I’d be totally okay whiffing on Watson but I’ll let someone else take that chance.

 45.) RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Conner is another one of my favorites that I won’t be drafting, but am excited to see his career play out. At 6’1” 233 lbs, Conner dominated the ACC as a true sophomore in 2014. Then as I’m sure you know by now, he was diagnosed with cancer in 2015. The fact that he was even able to return to the team is awesome, but to step in and put up big numbers? It’s an absolutely incredible story.  The highlight would undoubtedly have to be his 187 yard 2 TD performance in a victory against eventual champion Clemson. He did start off the season pretty slowly and that’s understandable. When, if ever was he truly back to 100%? It’s hard to say. All we know for certain are the numbers we have. He continued to be a bruiser and scored 20 touchdowns but is very slow at 4.65. His bench press numbers were fine but not great. The biggest hindrance to his value is surely the fact that he got drafted by the Steelers. Le’veon Bell has had some injuries and has even been suspended but he is one of the very best in the game. That coupled with his below average athleticism has me staying away. It’s very possible he has a lot of room for growth still but I’d rather find out while he is on someone else’s team.

46.) WR Josh Malone, Cincinnati Bengals

Much like Westbrook, Malone is a guy I would have liked a lot more if he either went a round or two earlier in the draft or at least went to a team with a clearer path to targets. As it stands, he is firmly behind AJ Green and John Ross and will battle Brandon Lafell and Tyler Boyd for any sort of relevancy in 2017. Most likely he will have a very quiet rookie season. That said….this guy really checks off a lot of the boxes I look for in my prospects. For starters he is a speed demon and ran a 4.40. He also has excellent size to match at 6’3” and 208 lbs. His 50-972-11 line led Tennessee in all three categories and even had a very respectable 5 for 61 against Alabama. He had a 5-120-1 line against Nebraska in the Vols bowl game. Lastly he is just 21 years old. I struggle to understand why he fell to 128th overall in the draft. Digging a little deeper, Pro Football Focus really made him out to be a raw receiver and questioned his effort. He reminds me a lot of Chris Conley. A great guy to have on the bottom of your roster with potential to break out down the line if things work out. (I’m still rostering Conley in a couple leagues)

47.) WR Ryan Switzer, Dallas Cowboys

That brings us to Ryan Switzer who is in the same vein as Trent Taylor. In fact at 5’8” 181 lbs they are identical size and right next to each other in the 2017 SPARQ rankings. In Switzer’s favor he was drafted more than a full round earlier and played for UNC in a power-5 conference where he led the team in catches and yards with a 96-1112-6 line. He’s also a little younger and does have the slight edge in SPARQ, notably coming in faster at 4.51. Where Switzer falters is his stats. He only had one year of elite numbers to Taylor’s two (with a strong 3rd season as well). Switzer definitely faced top level competition more often but Taylor’s numbers are just so much better and as I pointed out, Taylor was at least decent against the better opponents. Perhaps more importantly, there is no immediate role for Switzer to step into. While Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are nothing special, I don’t see Switzer moving ahead of them in year one. Long term there is definitely opportunity, but it’s no guarantee he will secure one of those roles.

48.) WR De’Angelo Yancey, Green Bay Packers

Yancey is one of my favorite under the radar players. He is 6’2” 220 lbs so he has great size and he was very productive, leading the big ten in yards per catch in 2016 with a line of 49-951-10 at Purdue. He ran a 4.53 in the 40 and also crushed the bench press. He flew under the radar mostly thanks to playing for an awful Purdue team that went 3-9 and while they did throw for a lot they were pretty bad at it outside of Yancey. He wasn’t drafted until the late 5th but I still expected his landing spot to catch more attention than it did. I suppose with Jordy, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb as the clear trio at the top, a likely insignificant role in 2017 for a late draft pick isn’t worth much more than a tiny blip. I still think Yancey is intriguing. Jordy is very much on the old side for a receiver and Randall Cobb could be a cut after 2017. Cobb has one of the biggest contracts for a receiver and hasn’t come close to meeting his pay. Another season that Cobb toils around 7-800 yards and he would be a cap casualty. The long-term path to targets is not nearly as bad as many seem to believe. Yancey is definitely a guy I see myself grabbing in the late 4th, though he might end up being a regretted cut when my leagues downsize at the end of the preseason. 

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That wraps up my 4 round rookie draft rankings! Thanks to all who took the time to read through them. There are still a handful of players that are worth talking about beyond these 48, so I will likely be posting another article or two looking at some additional prospects to either consider drafting or grabbing on the waiver afterwards. As we know in dynasty - there is never an end to the adjusting of the bottom of your roster. If you aren’t continually on the prowl for an improvement on the worst player on your roster, you’ve lost!

Sources for all 4 rounds:

www.pro-football-reference.com / www.sports-reference.com/cfb - I seriously can’t imagine looking up statistics without these two tremendous sites.

www.playerprofiler.com - Mostly my go-to source for college dominator ratings, they also provide an excellent snapshot of athleticism for prospects as well as plenty of in-depth stats for NFL players.

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/ - SPARQ scores. Use these over xSPARQ on player profiler as they are the actual SPARQ rankings!

www.mockdraftable.com - I used to avoid this site but at some point they updated to a much nicer looking simplistic design. Detailed spider charts on size and athleticism for all combine players and plenty of non-combine pro days as well!