Upsets happen every year. This is fresh in our minds with 15th seeded Florida Gulf Coast's magical Cinderella story from last year. A No. 9 seed in Wichita State even made it to the Final Four! Of course seed number doesn't tell the whole story, but its important to take a look at just how often a higher seeded team can beat their opponent. Take a look at each of the underdog seed numbers and how often they win, starting with #16.
#16 Seeds - The Ultimate Underdog
The worst of the best, a 16 seed has never upset a 1 seed, but they have come very close a few times. The tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, thirteen different 16 seeds have lost by single digits. Perhaps most notably, 16-Princeton lost to 1-Georgetown in 1989 by a score of 50-49. The following year 16-Murray State took 1-Michigan State to overtime but lost by four. Last year it happened twice and both 1-seeds (Gonzaga and Kansas) ended up exiting the tournament early.
Best shot this year: Weber State (19-11) vs Arizona (30-4) (1%)
Why: None of the teams has anything close to a realistic shot but Weber State has played a few very good teams in UCLA and BYU. They lost to BYU by "just" nine points, so they have that. If they can keep it to within 15 points they should chalk it up as a moral victory.
#15 Seeds - Hey, it happened last year!
Actually 15 seeds have won three times in the last two years after winning four times total from 1985-2011. So 15 seeds have certainly gained some respect within the tournament. In all likelihood its not going to happen again, but if you're feeling bold while making your bracket...
Best shot this year: Eastern Kentucky (24-9) vs Kansas (24-9) (15%)
Why: Eastern Kentucky has faced three bracket teams this year. Okay, so they lost all of those games. To be fair they were all away games, and they only lost to VCU by three! Thats impressive enough. They knocked off Ohio Valley favorite Belmont twice this year so thats a plus as well. Not to mention Kansas has looked fairly weak without Joel Embiid, going just 2-2 since his injury.
#14 Seeds
Sorry, I ran out of ideas for a title. 14 seeds win a bit more often than the first two, although since 2000 they have won just four times, same as the 15 seeds. Just last year though, Harvard beat New Mexico. At 14 seeds we get to the point where I think we have our first legitimate shot for a team to advance.
Best shot this year: Western Michigan (23-9) vs Syracuse (27-5) (33%)
Why: Not long ago, Syracuse was a clear #1 seed dominating the season. Then it all fell apart. They have suffered six losses in their last eight games, including that first loss to dreadful Boston College (8-24). This isn't just about 'Cuse though. Western Michigan is 12-1 since the start of February. They are also 8-4 against RPI top 100 teams, including a win against fellow tournament team New Mexico State. This team is hot and Syracuse is anything but.
#13 Seeds
A 13 seed advancing at least one round is almost probable. Since 2001 it has happened every year except 2004 and 2007. Multiple 13 seeds have advanced on three separate occasions. Last year it was LaSalle which ended up winning two games. Definitely take a long look at the 13's and see if there is one you feel good about.
Best shot this year: New Mexico State (26-9) vs San Diego State (29-4) (25%)
Why: San Diego State is a very capable team with a few signature wins, most notably at Kansas. The Aztecs never really faced that many tough teams though and lost twice to New Mexico to go along with a win (not New Mexico State, who they will now face). They have this opponent in common as New Mexico State faced New Mexico twice going 1-1. That is at least proof that New Mexico State has what it takes to pull off the upset, but San Diego State has the experience and talent so don't expect them to roll over easily.
#12 Seeds
2007 was the last time a 12 seed did not advance. Since then we have had twelve 12 seed upsets for an average of two a year. You can bet its going to happen at least once and like most years there is a strong group to make the push. A lot of people believe Harvard has a great shot to advance again. I'm not buying it, but I do think a couple other teams have a decen shot.
Best shot(s) this year: Stephen F. Austin (31-2) vs VCU (26-8) (35%)
Why: VCU is all too familiar with the role of cinderella, advancing at least one round as a #11 or #12 seed in '07, '11 and '12. This year it may find itself on the other side. VCU's strength is tied to how strong you believe the A-10 Conference to be. VCU has played 9 games against the RPI top 50, but only one was out of conference. Of course that was an impressive win over 1-seed Virginia. SFA on the other hand was in a very weak conference, but dominated its opponents with no losses against conference opponents. Although it suffered one bad loss to East Tennessee State, its other loss came against Texas, a very respectable team.
NC State (21-13) vs St. Louis (26-6) (45%)
Why: Perhaps I'm being too tough on the A-10 conference but St. Louis had looked rock solid all season long until losing four of its last five, including bad losses to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. NC State on the other hand has to win a play in game vs Xavier to even face St. Louis. While NC State does have a few bad losses, it also sports wins vs Syracuse and at Pitt, as well as one point losses at Cuse and vs UNC. This team had a brutal schedule and they won't give up easily.
#11 Seeds
You would have to go back to 2004 to find a year where no 11 seed managed to advance. This year the 11s have some impressive resumes as well. Every single 11 seed has at least one signature win and all have a more than reasonable chance of winning.
Best shots this year: Iowa (20-12) vs UMass (24-8) (55%)
Why: It's weird to pick a team that is just 1-6 over its past 7 games and also another team that first has to win a play in game to even face Mass, but Iowa is a tough team. They have impressive double digit wins at Ohio State and vs Michigan. They've made the big dance. If they can just hit the reset button, and they have a great coach who can do that, they can win a few games in this tournament. UMass on the other hand looked completely unimpressive in the second half of the season with a few bad losses. It would be the perfect team for Iowa to get a streak going.
Dayton (23-10) vs Ohio State (25-9) (40%)
Why: There, some love for the A-10. Dayton's only losses since February have come against the hot St. Joe's team. Meanwhile over that same span, they've also picked up wins against higher seeded George Washington, Mass and at St. Louis. Meanwhile, besides a win at home against Michigan State, Ohio State hasn't done much lately with losses against Penn State and a weak Indiana. I'm not saying this is certain, but Dayton has a good chance here.
#10 Seeds
Here is the strange part for me, I don't feel particularly good about any of these 10 seeds. Sure you have St. Joe's who just won the A-10 but they face a very tough UConn team. I looked at BYU, but they face Oregon. Sure, Oregon split its series with Arizona, Arizona St and UCLA, but it only lost the games by 2 and won them by 4, 7 and 7 before losing badly to UCLA in the conference tournament. Stanford hasn't had an impressive win in months...except for their big win over fellow 10 seed Arizona State, which also beat Stanford by double digits in their last meeting. These 10 seeds are all over the place. If I had to pick one it would be Arizona State, but I really don't feel strongly about it. Its mostly my lack of faith in Texas.
There you have it, my breakdown of the double digit seeds. If you want to go one step further, the 8 and 9 seeds are about 50/50 so there isn't much to break down mathematically. Take this knowledge, pick 'em and have fun!
Dec 28, 2013
Week 17 WR Rankings
- Demaryius Thomas
- A.J. Green
- Desean Jackson
- Brandon Marshall
- Pierre Garcon
- Josh Gordon
- Dez Bryant
- Eric Decker
- Torrey Smith
- Jordy Nelson
- Alshon Jeffery
- Andre Johnson
- Antonio Brown
- Keenan Allen
- Kendall Wright
- Vincent Jackson
- T.Y. Hilton
- Roddy White
- Julian Edelman
- Anquan Boldin
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Mike Brown
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Denarius Moore
- Danny Amendola
- Michael Crabtree
- Riley Cooper
- Mike Wallace
- Ted Ginn
- Marvin Jones
- Kris Durham
- Robert Woods
- Golden Tate
- Michael Floyd
- Brandon LaFell
- Jerrel Jernigan
- Harry Douglas
- Rod Streater
- Brian Hartline
- Greg Jennings
- Doug Baldwin
- Dwayne Bowe
- Randall Cobb*
- Griff Whalen
- Nate Burleson
- Eddie Royal
- Rueben Randle
- Marques Colston
- Hakeem Nicks
- Marlon Brown
- James Jones
- T.J. Graham
- Emmanuel Sanders*
- Nate Washington
- Mohamed Sanu
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Terrance Williams
- Kenny Stills
- Andre Holmes
- Da'Rick Rogers
- Jerricho Cotchery
- Donnie Avery
- Dexter McCluster
- Ace Sanders
- Aldrick Robinson
- Jarius Wright
- Jeremy Kerley
- David Nelson
- Marquise Goodwin
- Lance Moore
- Jacoby Jones
- Justin Hunter
- Stedman Bailey
- Santana Moss
- Kevin Ogletree
- Rishard Matthews
- Santonio Holmes
- Tiquan Underwood
- Greg Little
- Chris Givens
Dec 26, 2013
Week 17 55 & 5 RB Rankings
- LeSean McCoy
- Eddie Lacy
- DeMarco Murray
- Matt Forte
- Reggie Bush
- Alfred Morris
- Le'Veon Bell
- Marshawn Lynch
- Knowshon Moreno
- Zac Stacy
- Andre Brown*
- Chris Johnson
- Adrian Peterson*
- Ryan Mathews
- DeAngelo Williams
- Chris Ivory
- Frank Gore
- Shane Vereen
- Fred Jackson
- Giovani Bernard
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis
- C.J. Spiller
- Maurice Jones-Drew*
- Jamaal Charles
- Bobby Rainey
- Danny Woodhead
- Rashad Jennings
- Steven Jackson
- Donald Brown
- Joique Bell
- Andre Ellington
- Pierre Thomas
- Darren Sproles
- Edwin Baker
- Knile Davis
- Montee Ball
- Stevan Ridley
- LeGarrette Blount
- Ray Rice
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Shonn Greene
- Jacquizz Rodgers
- Jonathan Grimes
- Matt Asiata
- Lamar Miller
- Peyton Hillis
- James Starks
- Daniel Thomas
- Jordan Todman
- Mike Tolbert
- Kendall Hunter
- Darren McFadden
- Bilal Powell
- Chris Ogbonnaya
- Trent Richardson
#5 Reggie Bush - (#13 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
There are multiple red flags around Bush. He fumbled again last week and got benched. Joique Bell looked better. And he just flat out didn't look great. But on the season Bush has been very good more often than not. It might have a risk element involved but if Bush is playing I want him in my lineup.
#6 Alfred Morris - (#10 on Fantasy Pros)
After not getting more than 14 carries in RGIII's final three games of the season, he now has 18 and 24 in the two games with Cousins. That is no coincidence. I expect 20+ against the Giants. Even if their run defense isn't awful Morris will do fine.
#8 Marshawn Lynch - (#5 on Fantasy Pros)
Lynch is a must start of course, but he has slowed down considerably as the season wears on. He hasn't averaged more than 3.9 YPC in a game since week 11. He's always a great chance for a TD, but the yards haven't been there and don't expect them to be.
#11 Andre Brown - (#18 on Fantasy Pros)
I know Andre has let you down lately. He had two very tough matchups. You know what the Redskins are? Not tough. Trust me, He'll do well here.
#14 Ryan Mathews - (#9 on Fantasy Pros)
I'm always low on Mathews so maybe you should be taking that into consideration. But Woodhead was a bigger part of this offense early in the season and I don't believe he has disappeared. Mathews can be kept in check by that and I think it would be a major mistake by the Chargers to continue rolling Mathews out at 25 carries a game.
Quick Thoughts....I still really like Shane Vereen but teams have shown they can take him out of the equation. And I still believe in Stevan Ridley. I might be crazy though. If AP sits out, Matt Asiata moves to 26 or so. He scored 3 TDs but his YPC was about 2.0. He'll be lucky to get one TD here. Jamaal Charles may only play a few series, but if he can get to 10 carries he is a pretty good flex play still.
Dec 21, 2013
Week 16 QB Rankings
Slow to come, but they are here! Week 16 QB rankings. Do you start Kirk Cousins in a championship game?! In my opinion, you would have to have poor options to start a guy with so few starts.
- Peyton Manning
- Cam Newton
- Matthew Stafford
- Colin Kaepernick
- Philip Rivers
- Drew Brees
- Jay Cutler
- Nick Foles
- Russell Wilson
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Andy Dalton
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Tom Brady
- Tony Romo
- Kirk Cousins
- Ryan Tannehill
- Andrew Luck
- Alex Smith
- Matt Cassel
- Matt Schaub
- Matt Ryan
- Joe Flacco
- Carson Palmer
- Eli Manning
- Jason Campbell
- Matt Flynn
- Mike Glennon
- Thad Lewis
- Matt McGloin
- Geno Smith
- Kellen Clemens
- Chad Henne
#2 Cam Newton - (#5 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
The Saints have proven to be a fairly tough matchup for QBs this season. But I am not afraid. Cam scored 14 points in the first matchup despite throwing for just 148 yards. I highly doubt that happens again.
#3 Matthew Stafford - (#6 on Fantasy Pros)
Stafford has been awful in his last two games - 13 points combined. Before that he hadn't had fewer than 14 in a single game and had strung together 3 straight 20+ performances at one point. Don't let these last two games make you forget about the overall talent. Yes the Giants were really good against QBs for a period, but it was against backups. When they face starting QBs they are one of the worst defenses in the league. In fact, they are third worst if you take out the 4-game stretch where they faced: Freeman, Barkley, Pryor, Tolzien.
#4 Colin Kaepernick - (#8 on Fantasy Pros)
I don't feel as good about this one as I do the other two, but it is a fantastic matchup for Kaep. He has been very solid since Crabtree came back: 17, 12, 20 points with the 12 being against Seattle. At home against Atlanta? 20+ points is reasonable.
#6 Drew Brees - (#3 on Fantasy Pros)
Brees ended up with 19 points last week in a standard ESPN league, continuing the trend where he does not score more than 20 in an away matchup. (He has scored 19 on four separate occasions) Last week was destined for failure until he saved it in the last quarter. This week it is a tougher matchup and I really can't see him having a huge game here. I'd put him in the 15-18 point range.
#8 Nick Foles - (#2 on Fantasy Pros)
I know, Nick Foles has been amazing. But the Bears allow the 7th fewest points to QBs since their bye in week 8. In 7 games since, QBs have averaged 11.57 points a game in a standard league. That's the same as the aforementioned Panthers. I do like Nick Foles, but if you happen to have Jay Cutler, Kaepernick or Rivers, I'm starting them first.
Quick thoughts...Going deeper, I hate myself for it, but I couldn't help but rank Andy Dalton pretty favorably. The Vikings haven't allowed fewer than 18 points since Week 7 when they faced the terrible Giants. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in a similar situation against the Jags. 6 of their last 7 games, opposing QBs have scored 18+. The Dallas/Washington game seems like a shootout on paper, but I'm not very trusting of either QB. Tony Romo has been pretty bland lately and his worst fantasy game in 2013 came against Washington (8 points). Meanwhile I have no interest in playing Kirk Cousins based off of one good game. People did that with Case Keenum and while he did have a second game, we saw what he has become. Speaking of Keenum, I think Matt Schaub has a great chance for a big game if you need a hail mary. Further, I did not intentionally rank three Matt's in a row, but I thought it was funny. If you check Fantasy Pros, all five Matt's starting at QB are ranked consecutively. I love the weird stuff like that.
Dec 20, 2013
Week 16 WR Rankings
- Calvin Johnson
- A.J. Green
- Dez Bryant
- Alshon Jeffery
- Josh Gordon
- Brandon Marshall
- Demaryius Thomas
- Antonio Brown
- Desean Jackson
- Vincent Jackson
- Andre Johnson
- Keenan Allen
- Pierre Garcon
- Kendall Wright
- Eric Decker
- Jordy Nelson
- Julian Edelman
- Michael Crabtree
- Greg Jennings
- Mike Wallace
- Dwayne Bowe
- Marques Colston
- Torrey Smith
- Riley Cooper
- T.Y. Hilton
- Michael Floyd
- Anquan Boldin
- Danny Amendola
- Brian Hartline
- Robert Woods
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Roddy White
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Andre Caldwell
- Jacoby Jones
- Rod Streater
- Harry Douglas
- Steve Smith
- Doug Baldwin
- Marvin Jones
- Denarius Moore
- La'Von Brazill
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Golden Tate
- Brandon LaFell
- Ace Sanders
- Jarrett Boykin
- Aldrick Robinson
- Nate Burleson
- Hakim Nicks
- Andre Holmes
- James Jones
- Ted Ginn
- Dexter McCluster
- Justin Hunter
- Rueben Randle
- Marlon Brown
- Tiquan Underwood
- Jarius Wright
- Jerricho Cotchery
- Marquise Goodwin
- Miles Austin
- Eddie Royal
- Chris Givens
- Jerrel Jernigan
- Da'Rick Rogers
- Kris Durham
- Jeremy Kerley
- Kenny Stills
- Nate Washington
- Jerome Simpson
- Aaron Dobson*
- Rishard Matthews
- Lance Moore
- Mike Brown
- Mario Manningham
- Vincent Brown
- Greg Little
- Jason Avant
#5 Josh Gordon - (#2 on Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings)
Obviously at #5 Gordon is considered a must start. And that he should be. But even the greatest (Calvin) WRs slow down at some point during a season. His worst game (by quite a margin) over the last five is 67 yards and a TD. Thats as bad as its been. Even so, a game without a TD has to come eventually right?
#10 Vincent Jackson - (#15 on Fantasy Pros)
I really like Vincent Jackson here. Its not the greatest matchup, but Jackson played well vs San Fran last week and its certainly a better matchup than that. He should get 10+ targets and do well with them.
#13 Pierre Garcon - (#9 on Fantasy Pros)
This one depends to some extent on how much you like Kirk Cousins. One game will not sway me. He is still a backup with very little experience on his hands. Sometimes that is to your advantage early on in a career, but it can also be exploited. Its not a tough matchup obviously, but I am a little cautious on Garcon.
#14 Kendall Wright - (#21 on Fantasy Pros)
Mr. Consistency this year rarely has a monster game, but this is one where he could. And if not, its probably going to be 6 catches for 70 yards. Its a situation where there is very little risk in starting him with potential for a lot more. He might be more likely to fall in the 6-8 point range than anyone else in the top 20, but in the 10-20 rankings he is also probably the surest bet to at least get you 5 points and a very good chance at 10. I actually included some math/probability to explain this one to you!
#19 Greg Jennings - (#28 on Fantasy Pros)
To start Jennings would be to play risky. This was the 2nd huge scoring game for Jennings with Matt Cassel starting. In 5 games with Cassel starting, here are Greg Jennings targets: 4, 10, 9, 10, 13. That is pretty good. And the 4 target game? That ended with 3 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs. In addition all 4 of Jennings' TDs on the season come from Cassel. That said, its still the Vikings, Cassel and Jennings so there is some risk here, but they certainly have a good chemistry so its worth a shot.
Quick thoughts: I do like Keenan Allen a lot, but you have to be somewhat concerned about the fact that he has 4 TDs on just 5 catches the past two games. Without more catches, that is not going to continue. I hate myself for ranking Mike Wallace so high as this is the kind of game that he would let you down in - BUT it is a seemingly great matchup for him. Riley Cooper is another boom/bust player with high upside this week. As always, you have to realize there is always a chance for a dud when starting guys like him and Wallace. I really like both 49ers receivers this week. Well when I say "really", I'm not super high on either, but they are both startable, which is more than can be said at any other point this year for 49ers WRs. With Stevie Johnson out, I am pretty bullish on Robert Woods. Not a great matchup but with EJ playing he will be the clear favorite target. Awful matchup for Larry Fitzgerald. He had just 17 yards against Seattle earlier in the season. The Cards as a whole are playing much better now which is why he is ranked even this high, but I still don't want to start him. Guys with sleeper potential outside the top 40: Aldrick Robinson, Rueben Randle, Marquise Goodwin, Miles Austin, Jerrel Jernigan. I'm betting one of those two Giants listed does well. Jernigan was the preferred receiver last week, but I still imagine Randle will get the start in Cruz's place.
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