Shutdown Corners: What to expect for your #1 Wide Receiver!

This article was inspired by my realization of how some teams & defenders absolutely shut down premier opposing Wide Receivers. In particular, my studying of the Steelers and the Browns revealed this. I feel like Joe Haden has gotten plenty of credit, but Ike Taylor and William Gay, the CBs for the Steelers have not. The Steelers still have a reputation for a great defense but most people don't realize that if you have a stud receiver playing them, you should be concerned. I will highlight the teams best at shutting down top receivers below:

Pittsburgh Steelers: 
CBs: Ike Taylor, William Gay
Notable WRs: AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore
Stats (of the above WRs): 46.5 yards per game, 0 TDs.

Wow, the numbers say it all. Two of those guys are in the top 5 WRs in the game, and the other two are very good. Not a single one of them has had more than 61 yards in a single game. That is a major credit to both CBs, as well as the safeties, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu. However, the Steelers are one of the oldest secondaries. These younger WRs might be able to burn them later in the year. This team faces a ton of premier receivers in the second half. It will be fun to see how they fair.

Future top opponents: AJ green, Torrey Smith, Josh Gordon, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson.

Cleveland Browns:
CBs: Joe Haden, Buster Skrine
Notable WRs: Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Torrey Smith, Jordy Nelson (Mike Wallace, Stevie Johnson)
Stats: 50.75 Yards per game, 1 TD. (39.5 yards per game, with Wallace & Stevie)

This number is slightly inflated by Torrey Smith's 85 yard performance. You could also argue that Calvin Johnson wasn't fully healthy, but based on past history, Megatron is capable of amazing performances no matter what health he is at. The Browns are slightly worse than the Steelers because Buster Skrine is a lot worse than William Gay as a CB2. The one touchdown was on a very nice play at the goal line from Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson, so its not like the Browns were burned for a big play either.

Future top opponents: AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Justin Blackmon, Brandon Marshall

Carolina Panthers:
CBs: Captain Munnerlyn, Melvin White, Josh Thomas
Notable WRs: Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson
Stats: 64.5 yards per game, 1 TD (49 yards 0 TDs, if you exclude Stevie Johnson)

This one surprised me for sure. The Panthers have an excellent pass rush which certainly helps, but they have been very effective. They shut down Vincent Jackson after two really big games. It should be noted that all of the top WRs that have faced the Panthers have had issues at QB, whether it be the struggles of Eli, or Carson Palmer's ineptitude. It should also be noted that the top WRs they face going forward are not nearly as tough as the AFC North teams. I would definitely be cautious with Harry Douglas and Roddy White next week, and their schedule isn't too bad in terms of elite WRs going forward.

Future top opponents: Harry Douglas/Roddy White (?), Mike Wallace, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson.

New England Patriots with Aqib Talib:
CBs: Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington
Notable WRs: Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, AJ Green
Stats: 60.5 yards per game, 1 TD

Aqib Talib has started to get the respect he deserves, he is truly a shutdown corner. Perhaps the most telling stat about Talib (Courtesy of Pro Football Focus): Against the Falcons Julio Jones had 108 yards. When Talib was in coverage against them, Jones & White had 7 targets with no catches. Jones against other defenders had 6 catches on 9 targets for those 108 yards. That says it all.

Future top opponents: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Torrey Smith

Tennessee Titans:
CBs: Jason McCourty, Alterraun Verner
Notable opponents: Antonio Brown, Dwayne Bowe, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin
Stats: 64 yards per game, 0 TDs

The Titans secondary success has been fueled by the emergence of Alterraun Verner. Its worth noting that Verner and McCourty have the 2nd and 3rd highest grades on PFF. Verner leads the league with the lowest % of targets against him being caught (36.4%). This is in part due to the fact that he is not always covering the best WR even though he is good enough to do so.

Future top opponents: Justin Blackmon, Denarius Moore, Broncos, Larry Fitz.

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So there you have it. Obviously you are still starting your studs every week, but your expectations should be lowered. It makes the non elite WR1s like Larry Fitzgerald, Denarius Moore, and Justin Blackmon WR2s at best, with lesser WR1's such as Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace, and Steve Smith, these guys become virtually unplayable. This research isn't definitive, but its a nice additional point to consider, especially when you look at Torrey Smith, who faces three of the teams above.

Week 8 Early Games Recap

This week was definitely a challenge for me. I had some pretty good calls, but I had some really bad ones too. Y'know, like start Michael Vick! Or how about, Marvin Jones is okay, but I don't think he's fantasy relevant? It can be tough looking back at your own bad calls. But its important to acknowledge them and learn from them. I'll discuss some of them in my recap below!

Quarterbacks:
Normally I only review guys with numbers that seem out of place, but I'd like to give credit to Drew Brees playing like an elite QB should. Andy Dalton proved me wrong again. The defenses have gotten continually tougher over the past three games and he has played even better. Colin Kaepernick is playing good. Two straight games with a rush TD and no turnovers. I highlighted him as a rebound candidate and it looks like he as already met that. Alex Smith with another 40 rushing yards today, his mobility has made him a quality backup option against lesser defenses. I guess that isn't a ringing endorsement, but hey, it's an improvement. A bad day for Eli Manning, he hasn't had more than 15 points since week 1. With his bye coming up, he is completely droppable. Still owned in most leagues. Matt Ryan also had a bad day. Its hard to know what is real in the post-Julio Jones world. This week or last week? I'm still leaning with last week. Tom Brady with his third single-digit week of the last four. He isn't someone I would drop, but no confidence starting him week-to-week. Lastly, RG3 had a performance to forget, the mobility was gone and he left with a knee injury. Assuming its not a major injury, I'll be looking to buy him on the (very) cheap. Michael Vick left the game with more hamstring issues. If he is healthy I really like him, but you simply can't start him with confidence any more, and that's a damn shame.

Running Backs:
Andre Ellington leads the way with 21 points! Most of it on a big 80 yard run, but he played very well outside of that big one as well. Even with Mendenhall back in the future, he is a good RB2/Flex play. Darren McFadden exceeded my expectations. It wasn't pretty again, but two TDs. Another situation where just on volume of carries, he is a good performer. Stevan Ridley needs more touches! He has been playing fantastic. Three straight games with 10+ points. Pretty solid in these dark days for RBs. Giovani Bernard with his worst day yet. Two straight games with single digit carries. Definitely major reasons to be concerned. Fellow Rookie Le'Veon Bell didn't look good, but continues to see a lot of touches because everyone else is worse. As a result he got a touchdown. I like him especially because there is no way anyone else is taking that job from him. Darren Sproles owners should be very concerned. He is a decent buy if you can get him really cheap, but his role has definitely taken a step back. It should be noted he did have four catches.

Wide Receivers:
Calvin Johnson was amazing. There's nothing more to that! Marvin Jones continues to play well. Its finally time I acknowledge him as startable in every league. Definitely worth a grab if he is still out there. Kenny Stills with his second straight game with a deep touchdown catch. Two here in fact. 4.32 in the 40 dash, he is a great deep target and worth an add in 12 teams+. He will definitely be boom or bust, but nice games. Harry Douglas with another good game. 18 targets. He will remain very relevant even when Roddy is fully healthy. Aaron Dobson has clearly surpassed Kenbrell Thompkins. I don't think he is someone you can rely on, but he should be owned. A 4th straight game with a touchdown for Terrance Williams. Tony Romo really likes him. However, only two catches on ten targets today isn't good. Denarius Moore finally slowed down today against a tough Steelers D. Next two games are against the Eagles and Giants, buy low if you can. Pryor loves him. Same with Justin Blackmon. He still had 10 targets today. He has a bye next week so its a great time to try to buy low. Better days will come. Lastly, Marques Colston is not someone I can continue to say is a buy low. I'm not dropping him, but I'm only trying to acquire him if you can get him for the worst player on your team.

Tight Ends:
Jimmy Graham hardly played, but his speed and size allowed him to get two touchdowns and three catches on three targets. Obviously no worries going forward. Overall a really down day for tight end production. Jordan Reed had another nice day, but most of it was in garbage time. I like him, but I don't see him as a top 5 play or anything. Jordan Cameron with another productive day. I know some people are a bit disappointed with the lack of TDs, but 81 yards is not bad for those not named Graham or Gronk. Speaking of Gronk, it was a very poor day. Partly his fault, partly Brady's. I'm not concerned. Heath Miller had a TD called back in an otherwise bad day. I like him as a low TE1 option going forward. I'm done predicting big games for Zach Ertz right now, too much going on at the QB position. He will be good, but it might not be this year.

Week 8 WR Rankings!

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Dez Bryant
3. Victor Cruz
4. Wes Welker
5. Jordy Nelson
6. AJ Green
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Antonio Brown
9. Desean Jackson
10. Pierre Garcon
11. Anquan Boldin
12. Eric Decker
13. Terrance Williams
14. Mike Wallace
15. Josh Gordon
16. Marques Colston
17. Justin Blackmon
18. Denarius Moore
19. Jarett Boykin
20. Larry Fitzgerald
21. Cecil Shorts
22. Harry Douglas
23. Hakeem Nicks
24. Danny Amendola
25. Dwayne Bowe*
26. Rueben Randle
27. Jeremy Kerley
28. Michael Floyd
29. Golden Tate
30. Kris Durham
31. Stevie Johnson
32. Julian Edelman
33. Greg Jennings
34. Brian Hartline
35. Leonard Hankerson
36. Brandon Gibson
37. Aaron Dobson
38. Kenbrell Thompkins
39. Donnie Avery
40. Marvin Jones
41. Rod Streater
42. Greg Little
43. Chris Givens
44. Jerome Simpson
45. Cole Beasley
46. David Nelson
47. Emmanuel Sanders
48. Robert Woods
49. Miles Austin
50. Tavon Austin
51. Sidney Rice
52. Kyle Williams
53. Kenny Stills
54. Mohamed Sanu
55. Mike Brown
56. Jerricho Cotchery
57. Stephen Hill
58. Andre Roberts
59. Brian Quick
60. Aldrick Robinson
61. Cordarrelle Patterson
62. Darius Johnson
63. Jason Avant
64. Santana Moss
65. Austin Pettis
66. Riley Cooper
67. Kevin Ogletree
68. Doug Baldwin
69. Lance Moore
70. T.J. Graham
71. Dexter McCluster

#3 Victor Cruz - (#8 on ESPN Rankings)

After a big start to the year, Cruz has been average lately. He's still getting you 5 points a game which is a nice floor for any player. In all four games in his career before week 5 vs. the Eagles, Cruz had scored a touchdown. He also had at least 100 yards in 3 of 4 games in the past two years. The Eagles defense is not good. I would be very surprised if they can keep Cruz quiet again.

#7 AJ Green - (#3 on ESPN Rankings)

Green has been about flawless in the past two games. His success rides on that of Dalton's. Unfortunately Dalton will face an extremely tough Jets defense. This ranking isn't really about Green, but I expect Dalton to struggle mightily against pressure.

#12 Anquan Boldin - (#17 on ESPN Rankings)

Boldin has played very poorly against tougher defenses, and very well against the lesser D's. Well if you weren't aware, the Jags fall into the latter category. The 49ers esentially throw to one WR only (After Boldin, Kyle Williams is 2nd with 10 catches). The Jags won't be able to stop it. Enjoy.

#14 Terrance Williams - (#21 on ESPN Rankings)

It looks like Miles Austin might play again, but he has been basically useless. The one good thing he has done is open things up for Williams. Williams now has touchdowns in three straight games and it appears Tony Romo is growing very comfortable with him. With one of the best in the game on the other side of this offense, Williams should have plenty of opportunities.

#24 Harry Douglas - (#18 on ESPN Rankings)

The Falcons face a much tougher Cardinals defense this week. I fully believe in Matt Ryan, but I expect him to spread the ball around more this week, something he isn't afraid to do if he has to.

Going deeper...A lot of people still think highly of Larry Fitzgerald & Marques Colston. So do I, but I'm a bit lower on them until I see their situations improve. Just a gut call, but Dwayne Bowe has a better game with 6+ catches. Sam Bradford was one of the best at spreading the ball around, unfortunately (as with Russell Wilson), it held back any WRs from having huge games this year. Kellen Clemens will probably find a favorite target. I expect it to be Chris Givens. Leonard Hankerson should be a nice sneaky play as the #2 in Denver, but for a really deep play, Aldrick Robinson is strictly a deep threat. You can certainly burn the Broncos.

55 & 5: Week 8 RB rankings

I lied, there are a lot of teams on bye, I don't think there will be 55 worthy players this week! Not that you were starting anyone that far down anyway.

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Reggie Bush
9. Stevan Ridley
10. Fred Jackson
11. Darren Sproles
12. Le'Veon Bell
13. Alfred Morris
14. Giovani Bernard
15. Darren McFadden
16. Jacquizz Rodgers
17. Zac Stacy
18. Steven Jackson
19. Andre Ellington
20. Lamar Miller
21. Chris Ivory
22. Roy Helu
23. Joseph Randle
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
26. Peyton Hillis
27. Pierre Thomas
28. Willis McGahee
29. Joique Bell
30. Brandon Bolden
31. Kendall Hunter
32. Joseph Randle
33. Marcel Reece
34. Daniel Thomas
35. Tashard Choice
36. Lance Dunbar
37. Bilal Powell
38. Alfonso Smith
39. James Starks
40. Khiry Robinson
41. Montee Ball
42. Daryl Richardson
43. Chris Ogbonnaya
44. Rashad Jennings
45. Anthony Dixon
46. Felix Jones
47. Michael Cox
48. Bryce Brown
49. Jonathan Franklin
50. CJ Anderson
51. Justin Forsett

#4 Eddie Lacy - (#8 on ESPN Rankings)

Over the past two weeks Eddie Lacy has shown me that he is an elite back and he has become matchup proof after playing very well against two of the tougher defenses. Play him and watch him perform wonderfully.

#13 Alfred Morris/#22 Roy Helu - (#9/#30 on ESPN Rankings)

I have cautioned people not to overreact to the Roy Helu touchdowns, but I definitely think Helu performed well enough to take away some of the touches from Morris. Either way, I expect both to perform well this week. My ranking of Helu isn't because I think he will steal touchdowns, but rather that if the Redskins fall behind, Helu is the better pass catching RB.

#16 Jacquizz Rodgers - (#28 on ESPN rankings)

I've mentioned this on twitter, but I really believe Jacquizz is the next smaller-sized back in the mold of Sproles and Danny Woodhead. He is great at catching passes out of the backfield. Because of that skillset I think he remains valuable when Steven Jackson comes back. This ranking probably goes down slightly if Jackson is confirmed for certain to be back.

#25 Peyton Hillis - (#35 on ESPN rankings)

Peyton Hillis did not look great in his New York Giant debut, but he got better as the game went along. This is another ranking that could change depending on Brandon Jacobs health. But if Jacobs is out, Hillis clearly played better than Michael Cox and as an RB #1 vs the Eagles, he is a starting option.

#29 C.J. Spiller - (#19 on ESPN Rankings)

No, I haven't given up on C.J. Spiller. Its just that I think he is clearly hurt and it would be a mistake to play him. If I have any reasonable option at all, I am very cautious unless we hear better things. Spiller is highly unlikely to play, confirming my original thoughts. Do not start.

Deeper Looks...I still like Andre Ellington better than Rashard Mendenhall. It's simply in my nature to be very weary of players getting their first start, such as Mike James. I don't see him as a viable option outside of a flex. Brandon Bolden & Daniel Thomas both saw way more time than expected. I actually though Bolden looked very good and even though I like Ridley a lot, Bolden won't be a bad play. Ronnie Hillman is definitely not reliable, but its another matchup where he could end up seeing 8-10 touches, which makes him a decent desperation play. I prefer Lance Dunbar over Joseph Randle in terms of talent. Don't be surprised if he slowly gets more playing time as that game progresses.

As always, if you have any questions about my thinking, leave a comment. You can also tweet me @LopsidedTrades for quick thoughts and suggestions!

Week 8 TE Rankings

The big question is whether Jimmy Graham plays this week. Even though he has hardly practiced at all, I will be ranking him and ranking him highly. If he plays, he is a must start.

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Julius Thomas
3. Jimmy Graham
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Jason Witten
6. Vernon Davis
7. Jordan Cameron
8. Jordan Reed
9. Charles Clay
10. Heath Miller
11. Jeff Cumberland
12. Tyler Eifert
13. Andrew Quarless
14. Jared Cook
15. Zach Ertz
16. Kyle Rudolph
17. Brandon Pettigrew
18. Zach Miller
19. Joseph Fauria
20. Benjamin Watson
21. Brandon Myers
22. Anthony Fasano
23. Rob Housler
24. Brent Celek
25. Jermaine Gresham
26. Marcedes Lewis
27. Scott Chandler
28. Mychal Rivera
29. Levine Toilolo
30. Lance Kendricks

#16 Kyle Rudolph - (#11 on ESPN Rankings)
With Rudolph if he doesn't get a touchdown, he doesn't do well. I don't chase touchdowns. He has been mediocre with all three QBs at different times. There is no reason to feel hopeful for him here.

#14 Jared Cook - (#17 on ESPN Rankings)
This one is a gut call, but I think Clemens will look for Cook a lot. In a sample size so small that it shouldn't be relevant, Clemens targeted Cook on 2 of his 4 throws last  week. Its reason for hope.

#13 Andrew Quarless - (#26 on ESPN Rankings)
This is another partial gut call, but hear me out. Jermichael Finley is not playing. James Jones is almost definitely not playing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to throw to just two guys the whole game (Jordy and Boykin). Someone will have to step up to be that third target. Quarless should be the third option and that makes him a lot better than most other options here.

Quick thoughts...I've already explained my love for Zach Ertz too many times. That big game is coming. Joseph Fauria didn't have a touchdown last week. If you are really desperate, that makes him an option. Carson Palmer looks horrible for Arizona, but Rob Housler is very talented. I know a number of analysts are higher on him just because of his talent. I can't put my confidence in Palmer right now.

Week 8 QB Rankings

1. Peyton Manning
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Matthew Stafford
4. Drew Brees
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Michael Vick
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Ryan
9. Russell Wilson
10. Colin Kaepernick
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Tom Brady
13. Eli Manning
14. Alex Smith
15. Ryan Tannehill
16. Geno Smith
17. Terrelle Pryor
18. Andy Dalton
19. Carson Palmer
20. Jason Campbell
21. Christian Ponder
22. Chad Henne
23. Thad Lewis
24. Kellen Clemens

#6 Michael Vick - (#10 on ESPN Rankings)\

This call is a little risky because Vick is coming off injury. However, he faces the weak Giants, he has been preparing with the mindset that he is the starter since the beginning of the week. In addition, if Foles had played well last week, Vick was not getting his job back. Thats a big motivation to a QB. There is always the risk he gets hurt, but if he doesn't its a great game.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)

I'm not sure I've ever ranked Big Ben ahead of Tom Brady, but such are the times. If you need an option for the big bye week, Ben is very safe, getting at least 12 points in every game since a disastrous week 1. The Raiders D isn't terrible, but its certainly not great.

#17 Terrelle Pryor - (#13 on ESPN Rankings)

A lot of people see Pryor as a pretty decent bye week QB. I do not. The Steelers are not a great fantasy defense because they don't get a lot of yards, but they are a great defense in terms of yards allowed. Steelers are 6th fewest in total yards allowed. They faced Geno Smith in week 6 and he is somewhat mobile, he had 3 carries for 8 yards. I'll pass for this week, but I do like Pryor long term still.

Quick Thoughts - One QB who has been on a hot streak is Andy Dalton. However he faces the very tough Jets defense and will face a lot of pressure. Dalton is not the type of QB to do well under pressure. Another bad week for Tom Brady last week despite the return on Gronk. I am not ranking him confidently until he shows us otherwise, but its still hard to imagine him struggling this bad normally when Gronk is there. I still like Alex Smith a bit just because of his mobility. Only one game with less than 25 yards rushing. That really adds up.

Rebounds & Breakouts: Players who can improve in the second half

The end of week 8 will mark the halfway point for most fantasy leagues. Unless you play week 17. Either way, its a great time to look at players with a great shot to rebound from a disappointing first half, or younger players with a promising chance to breakout. I'm not just looking at disappointing players and saying "Yeah this guy has sucked, he is sure to bounce back". No, some players with high expectations have looked really bad (Tom Brady, Ray Rice) relative to expectations. I'm looking for players who I believe can be reasonably expected to improve. We will be looking at one breakout and one rebounding player from each position.

Quarterbacks:
Rebound: Colin Kaepernick
Relative to expectations as a decent throwing QB with a good chance for a rushing touchdown, Kaepernick has been a big disappointment. However we saw in week 7 the potential that remains within him and this team. Mario Manningham is expected back soon, and a few weeks after that we should see Michael Crabtree. Those two combined with Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis is a huge upgrade. That will improve the passing and take defenders away from focusing on Kaepernick's mobility. I really like Kaepernick in the second half.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning

Breakout: Jake Locker
I was amazed that Jake Locker played as well as he did in week 7. This was a guy who was supposed to be out for 6-8 weeks. He came in against a very tough defense and even though it was an easy loss, he looked great. I'm assuming he isn't fully healthy still, and when he is, thats an impressive player. They are also realizing that they can't rely on Chris Johnson as much. Locker could definitely end up as a viable option for fantasy players without a sure thing at QB.
Honorable Mention: Terrelle Pryor

Running Backs:
Rebound: Trent Richardson
A lot of people are completely bailing on Trent Richardson. Admittedly I don't feel as great about this pick as some others, but I actually liked some of the things I saw in the game against the Broncos. I felt his blocking was pretty weak, but when he got holes, he did well. The Broncos had Von Miller back and they are very tough against the run. Richardson has already faced four of the toughest run defenses in the league. The second half is much easier.
Honorable mentions: C.J. Spiller (I've already explained this elsewhere), Stevan Ridley

Breakout: Le'Veon Bell
Bell struggled mightily against the tough New York Jets in week 6. He then came back and played pretty well against the equally tough Baltimore Ravens. He has had a small sample size and one big game out of the three he has played, so a lot of people still don't know what to make of him. He is the undisputed #1 RB in Pittsburgh and I have high expectations going forward.
Honorable mention: Zac Stacy. There isn't anyone else I feel strongly about, but he would be next. Update: I lied. Andre Ellington is another great possibility!

Wide Receivers:
Rebound: Roddy White
Roddy White's value has tanked with an incredibly disappointing first half. Roddy White is on pace for 344 yards. Roddy White has had 1,100+ yards in six straight seasons. Roddy White has not become magically bad. He finally (for the first time in his career) took a game off to rest. If he has to take another game off, thats fine with me. As long as he makes sure he is fully rested. When he does he will come back and play like the excellent player he is. Did I mention that Matt Ryan made Harry Douglas look like a star?
Honorable Mentions: Hakeem Nicks, Stevie Johnson, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

Breakout: DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins had a few nice games in the first half, but they were not often. Now with Schaub possibly out, his value is taken a hit. However it seemed like few people gave him credit for his very nice game with Case Keenum throwing (76 yards and a TD). He is extremely talented and should have a chance at a breakout second half regardless of who is throwing. With Andre Johnson opposite him, he won't be the focus of the defense.
Honorable mentions: Robert Woods, Ted Ginn, Aaron Dobson, Tandon Doss

Tight Ends:
Rebound: Garrett Graham
This one is a bit of a stretch as he has never been great. But I'm thinking its more of a rebound to #1 Texans TE numbers. He is talented and simply hasn't performed while Owen Daniels has been out. However it has been a bit of a bad time to step into that role with Schaub's confidence at an all time low, and then a QB making his debut. Things should get better and the Texans still love throwing to their tight ends.
Honorable mention: Heath Miller (doesn't entirely count, but there aren't many good options)

Breakout: Tyler Eifert
I had a couple other options, but Jordan Reed already had his breakout game and I've spoken about Zach Ertz a couple times. Eifert is similar to Ertz in that he has shown some promise, he'sbeen more productive than Ertz even, with a nice touchdown in week 7. He continues to show he is better than Jermaine Gresham ever was. Really the only thing holding him back is Andy Dalton, and if they build a good chemistry, he should be an excellent alternative to AJ Green being double covered.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Ertz, Jeff Cumberland

As always, let me know what you think and send me some tweets @LopsidedTrades!

Rest of Season Rankings: Running Backs

These rankings are not reflective of what we've seen so far, but rather what I project each player to do going forward. This tries to take into account how I see the young guys improving going forward, how I see timeshares being handled, and to some extent the injury risk of a player, and overall the situation that a player is in. Obviously anything can happen from week-to-week, so take these with a grain of salt, but if a guy is ranked ahead of someone else, I would consider a trade for them. Would I actually have the guts to trade Ray Rice for Knowshon? I'm not sure. I would definitely consider it.

* denotes player currently dealing with injury

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Matt Forte
5. Marshawn Lynch
6. Arian Foster
7. Knowshon Moreno
8. Reggie Bush
9. Eddie Lacy
10. Frank Gore
11. Alfred Morris
12. Ray Rice
13. Stevan Ridley
14. Le'Veon Bell
15. C.J. Spiller
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Trent Richardson
18. Darren Sproles
19. Chris Johnson
20. Fred Jackson
21. Darren McFadden
22. DeMarco Murray*
23. Danny Woodhead
24. Lamar Miller
25. Doug Martin*
26. Steven Jackson
27. DeAngelo Williams
28. Jacquizz Rodgers
29. Zac Stacy
30. Andre Ellington
31. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
32. Ryan Mathews
33. Roy Helu
34. Maurice Jones-Drew
35. Ben Tate
36. Willis McGahee
37. Shane Vereen*
38. Pierre Thomas
39. Joseph Randle
40. Chris Ivory
41. Bryce Brown
42. Joique Bell
43. Daryl Richardson
44. Ronnie Hillman
45. Andre Brown*
46. David Wilson*
47. Donald Brown
48. Jonathan Stewart*
49. Bernard Pierce
50. Rashard Mendenhall
51. Kendall Hunter
52. Bilal Powell
53. Shonn Greene*
54. Lance Dunbar
55. Brandon Jacobs
56. Chris Ogbonnaya
57. Mike Tolbert
58. Peyton Hillis
59. Michael Bush
60. Robert Turbin
61. Christine Michael
62. Rashad Jennings
63. Marcel Reece
64. Jackie Battle
65. Khiry Robinson
66. Brandon Bolden
67. Montee Ball
68. LeGarrette Blount
69. James Starks*
70. Jason Snelling*
71. Michael Cox

Reviewing the early and afternoon games of Week 7

Week 7 proved to be a big test for fantasy teams. A large number of players got hurt. At QB you had Jay Cutler, who was a popular start this week, and Sam Bradford. You probably didn't start Sam Bradford, but he was widely owned. Nick Foles also left, and he was a pretty popular pick this week as well. Both guys could be out for an extended period. In the running back department, Arian Foster left very early & did not return. Doug Martin also left and did not return. Both of those injuries to be a little less serious. At WR, Desean Jackson left the game and was a big disappointment for owners. Doesn't appear to be long-term. Lastly Jermichael Finley was carted off. When you hear the words 'carted off' its never a good sign. Naturally, I hope you understand that any person making predictions can't really account for injuries. When you are looking long-term, guys do take a hit in value if they are injury prone, but when making rankings, you can't really lower a guy because he might get hurt. It happens. Lets look position by position at the performances around the league.

QBs:
With Peyton & Andrew Luck still to duel, a lot could change here, but standing atop the leaderboard is Matthew Stafford (26) and he is really a huge step up when Calvin Johnson is healthy. He is close to a must start in all leagues. For the second straight week, Andy Dalton (26) put up huge numbers. Its well known he has the offensive firepower around him. I think he's gotten himself into a groove, and that makes him a good play depending on the matchup. Next week he faces the Jets, and I'm not playing him there. RGIII (25) finally returned to prominence. He is running again. As long as he is healthy, he is a top 5 QB. That is all there is to it. Matt Ryan (22) showed us all how talented he is. He turned Harry Douglas into a star. No problem starting him. Colin Kaepernick (19) also returned to form. He didn't throw a ton, but he didn't make mistakes and had a great day running. I really like him when Manningham and perhaps Crabtree return. Mike Glennon (17) had a respectable day for any desperate owner who started him. It looks like he will be a matchup play. On the disappointing end we have Tony Romo (12), Tom Brady (7), and Nick Foles (5). I know Foles got injured, but if you were expecting a big day, shame on you. I did have him as my 12th or 13th ranked QB, so he was generally the best alternative option on my rankings, but I wasn't expecting much. Long term, it looks like Vick is safe. Tony Romo is a bit inconsistent, but 12 points isn't terrible for a bad day. Tom Brady on the other hand...with Gronk back thats a pretty terrible performance, even against a good defense. I am definitely concerned.

RBs:
No surprises at the top with Matt Forte (28) and Frank Gore (22), but Roy Helu (22) with three touchdowns? This is a bad bad sign for Alfred Morris (9). He got the carries and the yards, but they refused to go to him at the end zone. This might turn into a Bills timeshare from last year but worse. Speaking of the Bills C.J. Spiller (1) looked really bad and just not healthy. I saw someone on Twitter suggest they need to give him a game off. It might be the best option. I'm one of many analysts who has loved Spiller without stepping back, but even I am admitting its time to reel back expectations. I still have hope that its injury-related and he can heal and bring it back for the fantasy playoffs. Jacquizz Rodgers (17) hardly rushed at all, but he has become a very solid pass catcher. He might be a Darren Sproles type player. Reggie Bush (9) had a rough day, but he is still a great option long term. As bad as it was, he came out with 90+ yards. Another bad day for Ray Rice (6), I'm holding, but I'm not stopping anyone else from trading for whatever they can get. It looks pretty bad. Luckily he is on bye next week.

WRs:
Calvin Johnson (27) with that signature day everyone looks for. Had touchdown issues last season  but with his talent, they were bound to come. I would consider him untouchable if I owned him. Across from him, A.J. Green (21) had another big day. He is still a bit dependant on the play of his QB, but if he had a Stafford-type QB...wow. Vincent Jackson (25) with two straight 2 TD games. I was really worried on how he will do with Mike Glennon, but it looks like he can definitely be a top 10 play. Harry Douglas (20) with a great day. This may have been my worst call, but I stand by my reasoning. There was no reason to think Douglas could come out and perform this well. I give him credit, but a lot of that goes to Matt Ryan as well, who played phenomenal football. The same goes for Jarrett Boykin (16). He is looking at long-term relevance. Pick him up if he is still out there. Justin Blackmon (5) and Josh Gordon (2) are guys that everyone was high on but they both got shut down. With those offenses and QBs, it will happen from time to time. Still like both a lot based on talent. Torrey Smith (6) and Pierre Garcon (5) are two #1's on good offenses that got shut down. I'm buying low if I can, especially on Smith. Start all Patriots receivers at your own risk.

TEs:
Well, Gronk (11) is officially back. I'm pretty confident he will be my #1 TE going forward. Jordan Reed (19) had a huge coming out party. He is still available in many leagues. Grab him. He is extremely talented and rose up the depth chart very fast. Tyler Eifert (10) finally had the game I was looking for, but it only came on 3 catches and 4 targets, so I don't really see him as a good play yet. Jeff Cumberland (4) only had 3 catches for 41 yards, but he really looks like a big part of that offense. Zach Ertz (3) is one of my latest man crushes. Another quiet day, but he has definitely overtaken Brent Celek. At least with Nick Foles throwing. No idea how it plays out with Michael Vick.

Thats a wrap for the early games. Time to go watch Peyton destroy Indianapolis! If you want further discussion on a player mentioned above, or a player not mentioned, leave a comment! For quick and brief analysis, tweet me @LopsidedTrades! 

Week 7 WR Rankings

Just wanted to say, these are subject to quite a bit of change this week as news will come out about guys like Roddy White, James Jones, and Cecil Shorts!

1. Dez Bryant
2. Brandon Marshall
3. A.J. Green
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Desean Jackson
6. Wes Welker
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Victor Cruz
9. Vincent Jackson
10. Pierre Garcon
11. Torrey Smith
12. Reggie Wayne
13. Antonio Brown
14. Justin Blackmon
15. Josh Gordon
16. Eric Decker
17. Mike Wallace
18. Andre Johnson
19. Jordy Nelson
20. Keenan Allen
21. Greg Jennings
22. Alshon Jeffery
23. T.Y. Hilton
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Steve Smith
26. Kenbrell Thompkins
27. Harry Douglas
28. Terrance Williams
29. Anquan Boldin
30. Jerome Simpson
31. Jarrett Boykin
32. Rueben Randle
33. Dwayne Bowe
34. Kendall Wright
35. Julian Edelman
36. Cecil Shorts
37. Kris Durham
38. Jacoby Jones
39. Emmanuel Sanders
40. Miles Austin
41. Steve Johnson
42. DeAndre Hopkins
43. Brian Hartline
44. Mike Williams
45. Vincent Brown
46. Nate Washington
47. Marlon Brown
48. Brandon LaFell
49. Mohamed Sanu
50. Ted Ginn
51. Tandon Doss
52. Chris Givens
53. Leonard Hankerson
54. Stephen Hill
55. Aaron Dobson
56. Kevin Cone
57. Austin Pettis
58. Riley Cooper
59. Donnie Avery
60. Marvin Jones
61. Brandon Gibson
62. Greg Little
63. Jeremy Kerley
64. Darrius Heyward-Bey
65. Marquise Goodwin
66. Santana Moss
67. T.J. Graham
68. Robert Woods
69. Damian Williams
70. Cole Beasley
71. Jason Avant

Torrey Smith #11 - #18 on ESPN rankings

This one is more of a gut call, but I can't see Smith getting shut down in two straight weeks. He is the most talented receiver on this team by far. Ike Taylor is the only very talented human that stands in the way of Torrey Smith getting his points.

Jordy Nelson #19 - #10 on ESPN Rankings

With Randall Cobb out and James Jones possibly out, the Browns only need to focus on stopping Nelson. Joe Haden is the man to do that. He has faced top guys like Megatron, AJ Green, and Torrey Smith. To a lesser extent he has also faced Stevie Johnson and Mike Wallace. The only one of those to come away with a respectable day was Torrey Smith at 85 yards. I don't see Jordy doing anything better than that.

Greg Jennings #22 - #28 on ESPN Rankings

Jennings only had 34 yards last week, but that was on 6 catches and 10 targets. I acknowledge this one is totally a wildcard with Josh Freeman starting, but they clearly want him to be a bigger part of this offense, and I expect them to work hard to get him more catches with Freeman this week.

Hakeem Nicks #24 - #17 on ESPN Rankings

This is a good matchup for Nicks, no doubt about that. Unfortunately with that offense right now, I cannot in good faith put Nicks any higher. Randle is just as likely to have a big day as Nicks is. The one good thing for Nicks is that if there is any truth to the trade rumors, they probably want to showcase him this week.

Kendall Wright #33 - #47 on ESPN Rankings

At this point, Wright is only a low end flex play or a WR3 in deeper leagues. But I do have him ranked a good bit higher than the pros because he and Fitzpatrick have looked to be on the same page and therefore I believe he is a safe option to get at least 3-4 points with a good chance of 5-6. Thats more than you can say for most at this point in the rankings this week.

Deeper Thoughts...Kris Durham has looked to be a big part of the offense in Detroit and at this time is clearly the #2 guy. He is very tall which makes for a nice redzone target. Jarrett Boykin is an intriguing option only if James Jones is out for sure. At that point hes worth a flier. Miles Austin would be a big gamble, but if he ends up being fully healthy this week, its a great matchup for big numbers. I still believe Doug Baldwin is the best option in the Seattle offense, but its all so murky there that its only worth it in deeper leagues still. Chris Givens is bound to show us his playmaking ability again at some point, but he and Tavon Austin have been major disappointments so far. Super deep sleeper here, but Kevin Cone could slot in as the #2 in Atlanta this week. I actually think he is more talented than Harry Douglas, but he probably hasn't had much opportunity with Matt Ryan. Lastly, Greg Little would be a sneaky desperation play, two straight games with 7 points.

55 & 5: Week 7 RB Rankings - The always tantalizing C.J. Spiller and possibly the last time Brandon Jacobs will be relevant. Ever.

C.J. Spiller, I swear this is the last week I believe you in. Another letdown and our relationship is done for! Seriously though, its a great week for a big 60 yard play again from one of the best playmakers in the game. Brandon Jacobs is a low end RB2 this week or solid flex play.

Brandon Jacobs missed practice Saturday. It is a BAD idea to risk hoping he's active Monday night at this point with no other solid option. He has been removed from rankings to reflect this advice. Figures Jacobs can't even be relevant this week...

1. LeSean McCoy
2. Matt Forte
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Arian Foster
6. Reggie Bush
7. Alfred Morris
8. Knowshon Moreno
9. Frank Gore
10. Eddie Lacy
11. C.J. Spiller
12. DeAngelo Williams
13. Ray Rice
14. Giovani Bernard
15. Trent Richardson
16. Doug Martin
17. Lamar Miller
18. Fred Jackson
19. Stevan Ridley
20. Le'Veon Bell
21. Ryan Mathews
22. Danny Woodhead
23. Chris Johnson
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. Joseph Randle
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
27. Bilal Powell
28. Willis McGahee
29. Zac Stacy
30. Jacquizz Rodgers
31. Mike Tolbert
32. Chris Ogbonnaya
33. Joique Bell
34. Chris Ivory
35. Daryl Richardson
36. Ben Tate
37. Bryce Brown
38. Roy Helu
39. Donald Brown
40. Ronnie Hillman
41. Kendall Hunter
42. LeGarrette Blount
43. Bernard Pierce
44. Jason Snelling
45. Brandon Bolden
46. Jonathan Franklin
47. Michael Bush
48. Peyton Hillis
49. Phillip Tanner
50. Jackie Battle
51. Felix Jones

#10 Marshawn Lynch - 4th on ESPN Rankings

Marshawn Lynch is a beast and you are starting him if you have him. This ranking is just a warning to temper expectations a bit. He was listed with a hip injury and did miss a practice. Thursday games are rough in that kind of situation. Luckily its still Marshawn Lynch and there is a good chance he gets in the endzone even if his yardage is a bit lower.

#12 C.J. Spiller - 20th on ESPN Rankings

Disclaimer: Spiller is a weakness of mine, and my continued belief in him will be my downfall. But its a very nice matchup and he has shown promising signs lately. His ankle continues to improve. He has put up nice YPC numbers the past two weeks (8.3, 5.5). The biggest thing I'd like to see is an improvement in the passing game from Spiller, where his longest catch this year is 8 yards. Its bound to improve sooner than later, I'm banking on the sooner.

#14 DeAngelo Williams - 16th on ESPN Rankings

This ranking isn't a marked difference from ESPN, but I wanted to take a moment to point out how bad the Rams have been against the run this year. In the past four games, they gave MJD his highest yardage total of the year at 86. The other three games? DeMarco Murray 203 total yards, Frank Gore 153 total yards, Arian Foster 198 total yards. DeAngelo won't get there, but 100+ total yards is a reasonable expectation right now.

#18 Doug Martin - #12 on ESPN

Plain and simple, Martin has looked bad this year. Averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry with just one touchdown. He did get 91 yards against the Eagles, but that surely wasn't what owners were hoping. Right now, anything more than 10 points is a good game for Martin.

#21 Brandon Jacobs - #28 on ESPN

I might regret this ranking, but Jacobs really did look good last week. With Da'Rel Scott's injury, they waived him again and brought in Peyton Hillis. I can't see Hillis immediately jumping in for anything more than 3-4 carries. That makes Brandon Jacobs the guy against a Minnesota defense allowing the MOST fantasy points to running backs this season. A big tough guy like Jacobs should be able to take advantage.

Deeper thoughts...It's a brutal matchup for Le'Veon Bell, I'm not starting him if I can help it. ESPN likes Joseph Randle more than I do. He didn't look great when he was thrust into the role of main RB last week, but going against Philadelphia should present opportunities. Andre Ellington continues to climb up the rankings. Very explosive talent, its just a matter of how many touches he gets. I'm not big on Zac Stacy this week, its a tough matchup and he missed Wednesday practice. He might see an improvement in rankings later this week though. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has continued to look pretty good for whatever reason, he would be a deeper league flex consideration this week. As mentioned with DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert could find his way into the endzone this week again, fantastic matchup. Chris Ogbonnaya looked great last week, a nice refresher from the old and slow McGahee, worth an add in deeper leagues as well.

Week 7 TE Rankings

A fun week for TE rankings with Gronk almost definitely back & Jimmy Graham out. I tweeted this earlier, but its entirely possible Gronk may not play that much this week. Think about it this way - the Patriots are notorious for being as deceptive as they can with their injury report. Why now, would they make it clear that Gronk will be back, giving the Jets time to prepare? There are two possible reasons for this. 1.) It really was a major clubhouse issue and some guys were questions Gronk's commitment to the team, so they needed to make it public and get that out of the way. 2.) He will be used sparingly and mostly as a decoy while they ease him in to the speed of a real game. Either way, if he is playing, he instantly becomes the best red zone target for Brady. Because of that it its my philosophy that unless you have one of the great options this year, you are starting him immediately.

1. Julius Thomas
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Jordan Cameron
4. Antonio Gates
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Jason Witten
7. Vernon Davis
8. Jermichael Finley
9. Martellus Bennett
10. Heath Miller
11. Kyle Rudolph
12. Charles Clay
13. Coby Fleener
14. Greg Olsen
15. Scott Chandler
16. Timothy Wright
17. Jordan Reed
18. Zach Ertz
19. Jeff Cumberland
20. Sean McGrath
21. Brandon Myers
22. Garrett Graham
23. Delanie Walker
24. Jared Cook
25. Brandon Pettigrew
26. Joseph Fauria
27. Dallas Clark
28. Clay Harbor
29. Tyler Eifert
30. Levine Toilolo
31. Brent Celek

Jordan Cameron #3 - #6 on ESPN Rankings

The Jordan Cameron hype train has died down a little bit the past two weeks. A lot of people are wondering Weeden's return has spelled the demise of Cameron's value. Don't be one of those people. Cameron jumped to elite numbers at the beginning of the season behind Weeden and he is very capable of doing it again. This week should be a great return to that.

Greg Olsen #13 - #10 on ESPN rankings

The Rams are very tough against tight ends, the one spot they are decent against. They are allowing the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends and have only allowed touchdowns to much better players Jason Witten and Vernon Davis.

Scott Chandler #14 - #21 on ESPN Rankings

Chandler is a fantastic goal line target, standing at 6'7". He got a touchdown with Thad Lewis last week, and inexperienced QBs tend to target their TEs because they are big targets who don't usually have an elite defender in coverage.

Timothy Wright #15 - #22 on ESPN Rankings

The inexperienced QB statement from above applies here as well. Wright has quickly established himself as one of Mike Glennon's favorite targets. It will be interesting to see if Mike Williams changes this, but for now I really like Wright. Falcons have allowed 5 TDs in five weeks to TEs.

Zach Ertz #17 - #29 on ESPN Rankings

This might be the most aggressive ranking I made the entire week. I love Ertz. It seems to have flown on the radar, but after last week he was officially moved from #2 on the official depth chart to "Co-Starter". He also received 6 targets to Brent Celek's 1 target last week. He is an amazing playmaker. If he had enough catches to qualify, he would have ranked 2nd in yards per catch for tight ends, squarely between Vernon Davis and Jimmy Graham.

Deeper looks...Brandon Myers has become a non-factor, and I ranked him accordingly, but he does have a great matchup this week. I didn't highlight Jordan Reed, but I feel similarly on him as I do for Ertz. I really like fellow rookie Tyler Eifert but its clear he isn't ready to take on a major role yet. I ranked Jared Cook lowly, and I've said it before but there is no reason he should be owned. I also mentioned on twitter, Joseph Fauria should not be really be considered a great option. He might get a touchdown, but if not he isn't an option. Its one of my mantras that you don't chase touchdowns.

Thanks for reading and as always feel free to leave a comment or tweet me @LopsidedTrades.

Week 7 QB Rankings

It's a unique week where we have quite a few wildcards at the QB position. You have Nick Foles and Thad Lewis coming off great fantasy weeks and then Josh Freeman very quickly thrust into a new role and Case Keenum making his career debut. Matt Ryan may be without a single receiver who has previously shown us anything. It should be fun to see how it all unfolds! Making predictions on the other hand...

1. Peyton Manning
2. Tony Romo
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Jay Cutler
5. Philip Rivers
6. Matthew Stafford
7. RGIII
8. Cam Newton
9. Andrew Luck
10. Tom Brady
11. Matt Ryan
12. Nick Foles
13. Eli Manning
14. Ben Roethlisberger
15. Colin Kaepernick
16. Joe Flacco
17. Ryan Tannehill
18. Alex Smith
19. Mike Glennon
20. Josh Freeman
21. Brandon Weeden
22. Geno Smith
23. Andy Dalton
24. Jake Locker
25. Chad Henne
26. Sam Bradford
27. Thad Lewis
28. Case Keenum

Jay Cutler #4 - #9 on ESPN Rankings

Jay Cutler has now had two straight games with 20+ fantasy points and five of six have been 16 or better. He has turned into a very reliable fantasy option this season and now faces a very light Redskins defense.

Cam Newton #8 - #2 on ESPN Rankings

I guess the expert thinking here is that the Rams have been destroyed by the running game so Cam should bowl over them. That might happen, but it should be noted that when the faced Kaepernick, he only ran 3 times for 11 yards. Its not the best comparison, but its what we have. Couple that with the fact that Newton has been a very poor option when he hasn't scored a rushing TD this season and I'm much more conservative on him.

Andrew Luck #9 - #4 on ESPN Rankings

Its pretty hard to think this game won't end up just like the Cowboys-Broncos game. There is one big difference: Von Miller. I think Peyton wants to crush the Colts and this whole team plays fierce football, and Miller wreaks havoc in his return. Luck is still a good play, but not a great one.

Joe Flacco #16 - #21 on ESPN Rankings

The Steelers are definitely a tough defense, and I respect that. This ranking is more a reflection of the options below him I like less. Flacco is a clear step above guys like Tannehill and Smith in talent. He also has a wider range of options to throw to with Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown both back, plus the emergence of Tandon Doss as a reliable target. Not a bad deeper play.

Mike Glennon #19 - #25 on ESPN Rankings

Last week against an awful defense, Glennon played very nicely. The Falcons are almost as forgiving against opponent QBs, being 5th in most points allowed to QBs compared to the Eagles 4th. He shouldn't have another 18 point day, but he won't be terrible either.